Has Doug Ford Got the Measure of his Doctors?

Vincent J. Curtis

4 Oct 20

Just about everyone but the politicians and the media have figured out that the public health doctors were bluffing all along.  They said they had the answer to the pandemic, and they didn’t.  Now, Premier Doug Ford is resisting the extreme measures demanded by the same professionals who failed in the past.  Maybe he’s figured it out too.

The idea of quarantining the entire body of healthy people to flatten the curve, to slow the spread, of the virus was ill-conceived, but tried anyway.  The graphs of case numbers, hospitalizations and deaths show the characteristic curves of a pandemic allowed to run its course without restriction, including the development of heard immunity.  The lockdown proved a massive failure.

A second wave of infections is now evident in the “cases” graph despite the fact that strong restrictions remain in place.  Masks were supposed to be the talisman that warded off a second wave like wearing a necklace of garlic is supposed to ward off vampires. But masks didn’t work either.  Meanwhile, people grew restless under the never-ending restrictions, and outright defiance of authority was becoming more commonplace.  Ford began to realize he was losing his hold on public discipline. Restrictions inspired defiance.  Insults and shaming weren’t working anymore, and the legality of fines probably couldn’t stand a court challenge in view of Charter rights.  He needs to be careful.

The second wave is now bigger than the first.  But a funny thing happened on the way to the cemetery.  Hospitalizations and deaths remain stubbornly low, and a glance at the demographics explains why.  Deaths don’t begin until the 50-59 demographic, and don’t become significant as a proportion of cases until the 80-89 demographic.  The people becoming cases now are in the 20-49 demographics, and these show no deaths at all.

The doctors are reading the same charts I am, and they’re calling for a renewed lockdown.  Why?  Hospitalizations and deaths are negligible; there’s no “flattening the curve”, the previous justification. Why close more of the economy, or the raise the pressure on people by depriving them of the joy of society and live amusement?  The media, which seems weirdly supportive of social control, have never demanded – demanded -the public health doctors explain in detail how and what their measures are supposed to achieve.  Give us the math to show the difference between gathers of ten and fifty! Do they realize that 99.9 + percent of the people are not “unresolved cases?”  They’ve never been asked for a cost-benefit analysis.  Maybe Ford has asked, privately, and was shaken by the lack of rigor in the reply.

Famously, President Trump caught the virus.  Nobody got near Trump without testing, yet he caught it anyway.  The best laid plans of mice and men etc., so what’s to say another set of lockdown measures will stop anything? Explain.

While people over 70 remain at higher risk, the people becoming cases now are at very low risk.  If the pandemic were simply allowed to rip, the effect would almost be invisible and it would deepen an already evident herd immunity.

Ford isn’t jumping to the demands of the public health doctors.  Their failed methods may have aroused a distrust in their advice within Ford.  He realizes the young people are quaking in rebellion, and they are able to defy him at no risk to their health.  Insults, shaming, and dire warnings no longer keep them in line.

If Ford is to maintain public respect, he needs to ease up and ignore the doctors.  He may be realizing this.

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