Friday, December 31, 2021

Irresponsible commentary

Vincent J. Curtis

31 Dec 21

RE: Remarks by Dr. Dawn Bowdish, Professor of Medicine, McMaster University.  From a story by Maria Iqbal, headlined “Hospitalizations grow as cases near 1,000 mark.” The Hamilton Spectator 31 Dec 21.

Several of the comments quoted of Dr. Dawn Bowdish are irresponsible, and merely fuel unnecessary panic as the next COVID wave rises in Ontario.

The remark that ‘it’s too early to know if Omicron is linked to more severe illness compared to other variant’ is contradicted not just from the get-go by reports from South Africa, but in another story in the same Spec edition, specifically in the story headlined “Ontario study suggests Omicron is less severe.”  If Ontario has figured it out, then the literature is already abundant with studies showing Omicron is less severe.  Apparently, Dr. Bowdish hasn’t read any of it.  In addition, it is routine for pandemics to end with variants that are more contagious but less severe in effects, as Omicron is.  Dr. Bowdish ought to know this also if she is at all familiar with epidemiology.

The comment that using hospitalizations as a metric of severity is short-sighted is also irresponsible.  First, admission to hospital is a definite event, countable by statisticians, while case counts are dependent on testing volumes and severity.  Hospitalization, ICU admissions, and deaths are the only reliable numbers were have to measure the pandemic.

Her comment that ‘people who exhibit few symptoms could still face long term issues like organ damage’ is also irresponsible.  There are always outliers in medicine, but outliers don’t change the natural course of the disease in normal people. We have enough data now to quantify such assertions.  Since she didn’t provide the statistical likelihood, she just made it up, relying on her authority as a doctor not to be questioned about it.  Common sense and the data show that organ damage is associated with severe infection, and severe infection produces bad symptoms.  COVID isn’t a chronic disease like herpes.

Her comment that ‘a short interaction with somebody, crossing somebody in the grocery store, or someone sneezing outdoors in your proximity’ could be sufficient to get the infection is just panic-porn at this stage.  There are myriad ways of inhaling a sufficient amount of highly contagious virus to catch the infection.  Probably most of us will get it at some point, but the important question is how healthy you are.  If you’re healthy, stop worrying.  If you’re old, diabetic, obese, or have chronic lung problems, then you need to be careful.  Not everybody needs to panic, but panic - by emphasizing what she doesn’t know and by an absence of critical thinking - is what Dr. Dowdish’s remarks were all about.

We don’t need more panic through “what I, a doctor, don’t know” from medical professionals.  If you don’t keep up with the fast moving literature, there’s lots you won’t know.  What we need is responsible commentary from reliable sources, which are frighteningly few at the moment.

Too many want to play Dr. “we don’t know, so be extreme cautious” Fauci on TV who doesn’t know the data or understand it if he did, and not enough Dr. Scott Atlas, who knows the data cold and is a sound, critical thinker.

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More irresponsible COVID panic porn

Vincent J. Curtis

31 Dec 21

RE: COVID infections among kids in U.S. see record surge.  AP story written by Martha Bellisle and Terry Tang.  Published in the Hamilton Spectator 31 Dec 21.

Once again, we see the media pushing COVID panic porn with sensational headlines and verbiage, “record numbers,” “experts lament,” “cases rocketing,” “heartbreaking,” “the scenes are heartrending. They’re struggling to breathe,” and so forth.  It is a fact that kids are at greater risk of death from seasonal influenza than they are from COVID, so let’s review the story in this light, understanding that the slant of the story is to push the vaccination of kids.

After the setting the stage with lamentations, the story quotes that 337 children were admitted per day, the week of Dec 21-27, a 58 percent increase from the week before.  This is in a country of 330 million people with a terrible, uncontrolled immigration problem.  How many of these the kids are illegal immigrants? Doesn’t say.  Nevertheless, admissions are less than the record 342 per day in September, you eventually find out deeper in the story.  This is when 9400 persons per day total were admitted nation-wide.

We also find buried in paragraph 52 that two-thirds of the children admitted had underlying conditions, such as chronic lung disease or obesity.  And the writer ties this suffering to a lack of vaccination of the kids and the parents, as if unvaccinated parents who didn’t have the disease stupidly and inadvertently were the cause of their child’s suffering.  Because they hadn’t vaccinated them.

There are always outliers in medicine, and in a nation of 330 million you’re bound to find numbers that look big.  But COVID is not dangerous to healthy children, seasonal influenza is more deadly than COVID.  We don’t vaccinate kids or close schools because of seasonal flu, so consistency requires the same course for a less dangerous contagion.

Get off the vaccinate kids kick.  Very few actually need it.

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Thursday, December 30, 2021

Kids belong in school

Vincent J. Curtis

30 Dec 21

RE: Nervous families waiting on plan for return to school. Canadian Press news article by Holly McKenzie-Sutter.  Published in the Hamilton Spectator 30 Dec 21.

One of the cardinal principles of public health, all health really, is that it is a totality.  It’s not just one thing.  A person dying of cancer isn’t healthy because they’re free of COVID.  Likewise, other public health issues, both mental and physical, don’t go away because the world is possessed by a pandemic.  Public health measures can, in these circumstances, became a balancing act, trying to optimize and achieve a least-bad outcome.

The single-minded devotion to dealing with the COVID pandemic has violated this cardinal principle of public health.  Being COVID-free isn’t the beginning and end of public health.  Kids need to be in school for a variety of health reasons, and that includes learning to be social as well as education.  Keeping kids out of school because of the pandemic has been an educational disaster, and everybody knows it.

The authors of the Great Barrington Declaration (so named because it was declared in Great Barrington, USA) put it this way:

“Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.”

“We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.” 

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefitsis to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally …”

Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home.”

We’ve known since March, 2020, that COVID was dangerous primarily to those over eighty years, while those under twenty were practically unaffected by it.  We now have the data to show that the ordinary seasonal flu is more dangerous to kids than COVID.  We also know that in kids, symptoms are mild, and that kids tend to get COVID from adults, but transmission the other way around is rare.  We also know that transmission occurs most commonly in the home.

School is the safe place for kids to be, if you are concerned about COVID.  School is the healthy place for kids to be, and they don’t need masks or plastic barriers, or anything else.  In Europe, COVID was never allowed to interfere with kids going to school.

Why our public health officials are unaware of this is one reason I question their competence.

How we reached the Pavlovian response of rising cases demands lockdowns is described by Dr. Scott Atlas in his new book A Plague upon our House.  The main culprits were Dr. Deborah Birx and Dr. Anthony Fauci, who were two of the alleged medical experts on Vice President Mike Pence’s special COVID advisory committee.  Both Birx and Fauci were virologists, not epidemiologists, and when you’re a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.  Birx especially violated President Trump’s policy that “the cure can’t be worse than the disease,” and she pursued her personal, single-minded crusade for lockdowns.  Amazingly, Fauci did and said little at committee.  He read no academic papers, knew little of the data, and simply backed Birx up at committee.  He spent a considerable amount of time in front of TV cameras, however.  Atlas was brought in because he was a public health policy expert who opposed lockdowns and knew the data cold; and his colleagues, some of whom authored the Great Barrington Declaration, were epidemiologists.

By the time Atlas joined the committee in July, 2020, the damage was done, and a Birx’s lockdown mentality possessed both the media and most blue-state governors.  The great exception was Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who contacted Atlas in April, 2020, and pursued a different course that kept Florida largely open and was not suffering COVID deaths any worse than comparable locked-down blue states.  DeSantis was attacked viciously in the press.

What was done in America was copied in Canada for fear of looking out of step like Ron DeSantis  Politicians especially did not want the treatment DeSantis was getting, in part to my mind, because they lacked the mental power to fight back as DeSantis did quite effectively.  I can’t imaging Premier Doug Ford lecturing a media hack in the masterful way that DeSantis can.

By the deer-in-the-headlights look in their eyes, you can tell that the major public health officials in Canada don’t really understand their jobs or know the science, because they lack the academic training of people like Dr. Scott Atlas, and they aren’t smart enough to talk to him.  Atlas’ great criticism of Birx, Fauci, and others is that they lack the critical thinking required to understand what the data is telling them, and they don’t read the scientific papers, period.  Likely the same thing is happening in Canada.

If Ontario schools don’t re-open in January, or get closed later, it demonstrates how hopeless Ontario public health officials really are.  All but a few know that lockdown is bad, but they lack the stomach to take on the dangerous and really stupid fanatics like Dr. Adalsteinn Brown.  Dr. Kieran Moore’s recent announcement of lockdown-lite demonstrates to me that he still doesn’t get it, and I have questions for him to answer in another posting.

We’ll know soon enough the depth of the mental rot in Ontario public health and other officials soon enough.

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Wednesday, December 29, 2021

CDC reduces quarantine period. Proves lockdowns failed.

Vincent J. Curtis

28 Dec 21

The U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the CDC, recently announced that it was reducing the quarantine period for those testing positive for COVID-19 to five days.  It previously had reduced the quarantine period from fourteen to ten days.  The reason it gave for the latest reduction is that research has shown that a person is contagious for the two days before and the three days after symptoms appear.  These results shed discouraging light on lockdowns.

The science on lockdowns is that they do nothing to prevent the spread, while creating health problems, social, educational, and economic problems on a large scale themselves  Unimpressed, the influential doctors in Ontario are calling for a “circuit-breaker” lockdown in order to protect, not you, but their precious health care system as the “Omicron OMG!” wave ramps up.  Methods that failed to stop alpha and delta are being summoned to deal with the more contagious omicron?

To combat the third wave, from April to the July 2021, Ontario ran a full lockdown for seven consecutive fourteen day periods.  The doctors pathetically claim this as their justifying success story.  But if contagiousness lasts only five days, this wasn’t seven, it was nineteen quarantine periods, a failure of method by any measure.  The third wave cases curve shows the expected shape of rise and fall, like one finds in Sweden.

These doctors, ignorant and uncaring of the science, need to be cancelled.  The health care system exists to protect us, we don’t exist to protect the health care system.

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Monday, December 27, 2021

Full Frontal Lobotomy

 Vincent J. Curtis

27 Dec 21

RE: It’s time for the greening of our cities.  Hamilton Spectator editorial 27 Dec 21 

It’s a certainty that the editors of the Hamilton Spectator have undergone a full frontal lobotomy.  This editorial proves that the left lobe doesn’t know what the far left lobe is thinking.

The editorial calls for more green space in, of all places, Hamilton.  Yet, this same space has advocated the complete infilling of the current urban boundary in order to keep the undeveloped farmland of Elfrida fallow.

The one thing that has actually and unquestionably greened the entire planet has been the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.  The other lobe has practically had a stroke calling for Canada to stop CO2 emissions, even when Canada is not at all the main culprit, and the principal villains announced at COP26 that they plan to do even more.

The public health problems associated with isolation have been publically known since April, 2020, and were summarized in the Great Barrington Declaration on Oct 4th, 2020, as follows:

“Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.”

Yet, this same space has been the city’s chief cheerleader of lockdowns.

It’s not irony, it’s cognitive dissonance.

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Sunday, December 26, 2021

Positively stupid

Vincent J. Curtis

26 Dec 21

One the statistics often quoted by Dr. Kieran Moore, Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, is “test positivity.”  Test positivity is the fraction of positive tests divided by total number of tests.  But the way testing is done, test positivity is a nonsense statistic.

If you test only symptomatic people, you’re going to get high positivity rates, because you’re sampling primarily sick people.  If you want to bring positivity down, increase testing of healthy, young people.  That is, increase the denominator to make the fraction smaller.

On December 24, test positivity was close to twenty percent.  Since the total active cases in Ontario on December 24 was 39,980, a random sample of all 15 million Ontarians would produce a positivity of 0.27 percent, about one hundred times smaller than the positivity touted by Ontario Public Health.  The fallacy of “test positivity” is so obvious, to use it at all is a sign either of incompetence or of deliberately trying to panic the public.

In addition, testing volumes vary widely.  On November 30, Ontario tested 21,467 times for COVID, but on December 24, 72,639 tests were conducted.  You can’t put any stock into “test positivity,” except as an evaluation of the critical thinking capacity of the medical “experts” running this show.

Serious question need to be put to Dr. Moore before Ontario finds itself bamboozled into another useless lockdown.

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Saturday, December 25, 2021

Why are we testing healthy people?

Vincent J. Curtis

25 Dec 21

We’ve known since March, 2020, that COVID-19 is dangerous almost exclusively to the old, those over 80 years especially.  It can also be dangerous to younger people who suffer from certain afflictions: diabetes, obesity, and respiratory ailments.  We see this in Ontario’s morbidity and mortality numbers. The over 80 demographic suffered the most deaths, followed by the 70-79 demographic.  Mortality falls dramatically in the 60-69 demographic, and becomes miniscule to practically non-existent in the younger demographics.

The question arises, “why are we testing healthy, asymptotic people at low risk?”  Of course, knowledge is an unlimited good, but when test kits are expensive and limited in supply, questions of sensible economy enter the answer.  Asymptomatic people are that way because their bodies aren’t manufacturing viruses on a mass scale.  When infected, the virus uses the body’s tissues to reproduce itself; that, in turn, produces a response in the body, including swelling, production of certain fluids, and auto-immune response.  The auto-immune response kills viruses directly, but the body can also rid itself of viruses by discharging them into the air.  The absence of these symptoms means that person is not a likely source of spreading the infection.  Hence, asymptomatic people are at no risk either to themselves or to other healthy people.

It makes no sense, therefore, to test asymptomatic young people.  What is done if a test comes back positive?  Useless quarantine, unhealthy locking down, and subjecting others to unhealthy lockdown treatment.

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REPOST: The futility of masking

 

It is now becoming recognized in the MSMS that cloth and surgical masks are next to useless for preventing the spread of COVID-19.  "Facial decorations" is how one commentator on CNN recently described them.  How cloth and surgical masks came to be thought of as prophylactics was a mystery to me that was lifted by Dr. Scott Atlas in his new book.  The content of the posting below ought to have been known to the health care "experts" in charge of the world's COVID response, but wasn't.  This is either due to incompetence or viciousness - the desire to keep people placated with displacement activity.  Calls today for mask wearing and mask mandates in view of the Omicron OMG! panic by health authorities now, reflects either incompetence for not keeping abreast of the literature, or viciousness.  

Below is a repost of my article "The futility of masking" originally posted 1 Aug 20, yes, over a year ago. 

The Futility of Masking

Vincent J. Curtis

1 Aug 20

Masking is futile in the midst of the pandemic.  Masking has, however, become a favorable sign of social control by the progressive left, and is accepted by most others if it provides relief from the oppression of the lockdown.  People want their freedom back, and will mask-up as the price they have to pay to get it.  Surgical masks, however, provide a false sense of security.

There is an upsurge in “cases” since the middle of June both in Canada and in the United States.  This time frame coincides with the incubation period since the first of the George Floyd demonstrations and riots.  Many, if not most, of the demonstrators were masked, and yet spreading occurred – because masking is largely ineffective against transmission of the virus.  Masking with surgical masks and home-brew affairs provide a false sense of security.

Surgical masks have limited use only when the person wearing it is contagious.  Obviously, if a person is not contagious, the mask wearer has no virus to transmit.  Surgical masks and worse are not effective as dust masks, and it as a kind of dust that the virus is picked up.   Remember the run on N95 masks?  These are respirator-masks that are designed to block the inhalation of dust.  A healthy person wants to block the uptake of dust, and can safely exhale his own, virus-free breath.  The surgical mask blocks the outflow of mist in the breath, and so is suitable for an infected person to wear.

With social distancing of 1 meter or more, mask wearing is reduced to uselessness because an infected person can’t push the mist in their breath farther than 1 m.  With reasonable air circulation, that virus that is pushed into the atmosphere is diluted and dispersed.

Large crowds yelling and chanting and not social distancing can challenge the atmosphere’s ability to dilute and disperse airborne virus instantly.  Since surgical masks are not protection against dust, mask-wearing demonstrators only protected their identity, not their health, by wearing them.  Surgical masks gave a false sense of security – against infection.

It is amusing to watch the famous Dr. Fauci break all his own rules on masking: taking it off, putting it back on, fussing with it in his hands, etc.  These things destroy whatever protection a cloth mask can provide from infection.  He once warned against all these things, and he is fast becoming a farce of his old self.

There aren’t enough NIOSH approved respirator masks for everybody, and surgical masks are no substitute.  Luckily, social distancing is quite adequate most of the time, even in the presence of a contagious person.  Surgical masks are suitable for contagious persons to wear in the presence of others, preferably with good air exchange also.  The problem of infection arises when one is trapped in the presence of a concentrated amount of air-borne virus, as can occur in a closed room with poor air exchange.  In this case, a surgical mask only provides a false sense of security.

Surgical masks will continue to be signs of compliance.  They are not a sign of protection, they look ridiculous, and almost always are ridiculous.

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Friday, December 24, 2021

BC 2021 Wildfire lookback

Vincent J. Curtis

24 Dec 21

We all know that climate change causes a loss of critical thinking capacity in many humans, and a good example of this is the commentary over the 2021 British Columbia wildfire season.  So many “experts” were certain that the extensive (and extensively covered) B.C. wildfires were due to climate change.  The data is now in, can we can examine dispassionately what the facts are.

The total burn acreage in B.C. in 2021 as reported on the government website is 868,205 ha (hectares).  The 2010 to 2020 average is 348,149 ha.  Gosh, that 2021 number looks really bad.  Between 2010 and 2020, the lowest burn acreage occurred in 2011, with 12,604, followed closely by 2020 with 14,526 ha.  The highest burn acreage occurred in 2018 with 1,354,284 ha, followed closely by 2017 with 1,216,053.  The burn acreage of 2021 is above the decade’s average, but within the expected range, and well below the two highest years.

What these numbers mean is that there is no trend evident in B.C. burn acreage over the period 2010 to 2021.  Some years are quite low while others are very high, with 2021 coming in the high middle, with the two prior years being quite low in burn acreage.

The absence of a trend means you can’t claim the data or the event supports a trend, i.e. that of climate worsening.

The media, which loves to keep the public alarmed over something, be it COVID or climate change, aren’t going to report the falsification of their summertime thesis.

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Here’s the data:

Year                Hectares burned

2021                868,203

2020                14,526

2019                21,138

2018                1,354,284

2017                1,216,053

2016                100,366

2105                280,605

2014                369,168

2013                18,298

2012                102,122

2011                12,604

2010                337,149

Avg                 348,917

 

2009                247,419

2008                13,240

Avg since 2008           314,383

 

Since 2010: person caused 562 (42 %)  lightning caused 790 (58 %)

 

Thursday, December 23, 2021

Embarrassing questions for Dr. Moore

Vincent J. Curtis

23 Dec 21

A clever questioner might ask Dr. Moore, Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, questions like the following based upon his Dec 17th pronouncement:

As we’ve known since March, 2020 and supported by Ontario’s COVID data, the population most vulnerable to COVID-19 are those over 70 years old.  Given that, how many people over 70 attend strip clubs after 11:00 p.m.?  If you don’t know, then there is no scientific basis for the early closure order, so was the closure order based upon personal moral abhorrence of strip clubs?

What is so magical about 11:00 p.m.?  Why not 9:30 p.m., or 2:00 a.m.?

Bars and restaurants were found empirically to contribute less than two percent to the spreading of cases.  What, then, is the rational basis for reducing capacity limits, ordering early closures, and being so intrusive as to limit numbers at a table?

How is it that the COVID virus gets transmitted so readily after 11:00 p.m., when the crowd size is usually smaller than before 11:00 p.m.?  What is the scientific basis for this conclusion?  How does the consumption of food and alcohol contribute to the spread of COVID after 11:00 p.m. but not before?

Why is it that attendees are allowed to stand and cheer at Leafs games, but nowhere else?

What is the rational basis for prohibiting the sale of food and drink at sporting events, concerts, cinemas and theatres, when even larger numbers of people congregate at the ticket takers and in the seating areas?

Where is your data to support your orders?

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The last was a derisive, rhetorical question.  That data doesn’t exist.  It’s all based on supposition and guesswork that began in the U.S., and, based on Dr. Scott Atlas’ new book, with Dr. Deborah Birx of the COVID task force, chaired by Vice President Mike Pence in particular.  In short, there is so scientific basis, no data, for Dr. Moore’s lockdown-ish orders of December 17th.

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

COVID Killjoys engage in logical fallacies

Vincent J. Curtis

21 Dec 21

RE: COVI|D outbreak leaves 7 infected.  A story about the beloved Corktown Tavern.  The Hamilton Spectator 21 Dec 21.

The killjoys who run public health engage in an implicit logical fallacy when they say that “200 people attended the event, resulting in 7 getting infected.”  It’s not the size of the crowd that matters, and it’s not ‘social interactions’ that cause transmission of COVID.  The cause of transmission is breathing virus-containing air, and social interaction is a poor proxy for the breathing of virus-containing air.

If the one person who had COVID, and didn’t know it, had not gone to the event, no one would have caught COVID.  If the one person who had it attended an event of 100, or 50, or 25, then 7 people would still have caught COVID.  The logic of social interactions is what leads to lockdowns, passports, and other failed methods.  Understanding that transmission occurs by the inhalation of contaminated air leads to the logic of air purification and effective masks, like the N-95 or NIOSH approved respirator.  Cloth and surgical masks are ineffective, and their use, insofar as wearing one is not a displacement activity, creates a false sense of security and a self-righteous sense of compliance.

The logic of reducing social interactions leads to bad decisions because it is a weak and poor proxy for the actual cause of transmission, breathing contaminated air.  It was the luck of the draw that caused a so-called “outbreak.” And you never hear of the millions of interactions that don’t cause transmission.

(It is false to call it an “outbreak,” for these occur among static populations, and a crowd at a pub is not a static population.  You could call it a spreader event, I suppose, but “outbreak” is a panic-porn word now so favored by the authorities to justify control.)

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Monday, December 20, 2021

Wrong!

Vincent J. Curtis

20 Dec 21

We are appalled today by the practice of the Aztecs to sacrifice people to appease the angry volcano.  Yet something like that is being done today to appease the angry COVID virus.  Individuals must be sacrificed for the good of the society as a whole.

By the frank admission of Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Kieran Moore, the vaccine resisters of Ontario got it right.  When the balloon went up on Ontario’s fourth wave, we find out that the vaccines don’t work!  Millions of people got vaccinated uselessly!

The AstraZenca and J&J vaccines are ineffective against Omicron altogether, and the Pfizer and the Moderna vaccines need to be this month fresh to be effective against the new variant.  Even now, three quarters of the new cases in Ontario are of vaccinated people, and that’s with the delta variant still being the dominant strain.

All that social division and pressure, and firings, and hatred stirred up against the unvaccinated proved to be not just unethical, but, as a practical matter, wrong.  Sacrificing individuals for the good of the whole is fundamentally unethical, to say nothing in this case of being admitted useless for the goal at hand.

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Useless whining about Ontario power generation

Vincent J. Curtis

20 Dec 21

RE: Ontario on track to see major growth in GHGs.  Op-ed by Mark Winfield and Colleen Kaiser.  Mark Winfield is a professor of Environmental and Urban Change at York University and co-chair of the faculty’s sustainable energy initiative.  Colleen Kaiser is a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Ottawa.  Published in the Hamilton Spectator 20 Dec 21.

We see yet again the tedious rehearsal of environmentalists complaining about something, and having no solutions.  The authors complain about the planned building of natural gas fired electrical generation in Ontario to replace nuclear generation that will be either retired or taken off-line for refurbishment.  The highly educated authors erred when they claimed that burning natural gas generated particulate matter.  Everybody but them seems to know that natural gas is clean burning.  It’s not like diesel or coal.

As I observed back in 1996, climate environmentalists have boxed themselves in.  We now have enough practical experience to know that over-priced wind and solar are never available when you need it.  That’s why renewables are always backed up by natural gas generators that can fill the power gap in a hurry.  There is little more hydro left to be tapped in Ontario.  Coal is out, and nuclear is another environmentalist’s nightmare.  So there’s nothing left but the complaining.

Rather that complain about Ontario, the environmentalists need to reflect upon a few facts.  Like 1.5 percent.  That COP26 was a failure.  That China and India are building more coal fired generation each year than Ontario’s total power portfolio.

If they believe a climate catastrophe is coming because of CO2 emission, as I do not, they should be thinking about bracing for impact.  Think of things by which we can cope with whatever it is they think is coming.

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Sunday, December 19, 2021

They’re lost, and so are you.

Vincent J. Curtis

19 Dec 21

In his address to the province on December 14, Dr. Kieran Moore concluded his remarks as follows:

“Getting your COVID-19 shot is important, but we know that it isn’t enough to prevent spread.  It is essential that individuals continue to adhere to basic public health measures, including reducing your total number of contacts, wearing a well-fitted mask from nose to chin, washing your hands frequently, physical distancing, and staying home when ill even with mild symptoms, and get tested if you have symptoms compatible with COVID-19.  These actions in combination with vaccination can help to reduce the risk of transmission of COVID-19 and its variants, protect public health, and health care capacity, and save lives.”

Logically, Dr. Moore admitted that vaccines don’t prevent infection, even with a booster.  But the “public health measures” he recommends are known to be worthless and amount to nothing more than displacement activities.  In the first place, they didn’t stop waves two and three.  It has been known since August, 2020, that the COVID-19 virus spreads via airborne transmission, meaning the hand washing and surface cleaning are useless.  Unless the mask is an N-95 or better, mask wearing is useless because they don’t catch virus-sized particles.  Cloth masks are proven useless, and surgical masks are proven only slightly less useless.  Social distancing prevents sputum transmission.

Staying home is also wrong.  Treatment with therapeutics work best early on, and so one should seek them out immediately, at the hospital or wherever.  What do you mean Ontario doesn’t have therapeutics like monoclonal antibodies?  Why not??

His statement about reducing social contacts simply proves that they haven’t figured it out yet.  Social contacts among the uninfected won’t transmit COVID.  It’s breathing too much virus-contaminated air that transmits the disease.  The variants, and vaccinations, and masking are all about one’s susceptibility to infection having inhaled a certain amount of virus-containing air.  Social contact is, at best, a weak and distant co-variant of breathing contaminated air.  They don’t get it.

Alberta experienced a fourth wave with freshly vaccinated people, and even now, nearly three ons after the peak, cases remain on the high side.  Vaccination, at best, amounts to an expensive therapeutic in anticipation of infection, if it doesn’t leave you more vulnerable to infection as it wears off.

All the health care professionals care about tis their precious system, which isn’t doing much else the last two years except bracing for COVID or recovering from COVID.

Ontario is going to get its fourth wave because the virus has become prevalent there, and the extreme contagiousness of Omicron means that protection measures are useless.

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Saturday, December 18, 2021

Fire Brown now

Vincent J. Curtis

17 Dec 21

Adalsteinn Brown, a some time advisor to Premier Doug Ford, needs to be fired - immediately!  Brown is now on record giving political advice to the Premier in public.  I refer to his statement that Ontario needs a “circuit breaker” to slow down the growth of the fourth wave. A circuit breaker means some kind of lockdown measures.

If Premier Ford ignored his advice, then he would be seen as ignoring the advice of “experts,” and Brown would have little choice but to resign if he truly believed in his publicly given advice.  If Ford accepted his advice, then he is seen as the captive of the experts, unable to exercise independent judgement.  The latter is an intolerable position for the head of the government.

Brown probably gave Ford his circuit-breaker advice privately, and so there was no need for him to become a political figure himself by making his advice public.  If Brown wants to give political advice publicly, then he should run for office himself.

Either way, he has no business advising Premier Ford any further, and if Brown won’t resign immediately for his mistake, then Ford should fire him.

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Friday, December 17, 2021

Now, it’s Ontario's turn

Vincent J. Curtis

16 Dec 21

Last summer, the Spectator devoted lots of space to the narrative that Alberta was deservedly getting a fourth wave of COVID.  The stupid cowboys weren’t obeying the advice of the medical experts of Ottawa.  Albertans weren’t getting vaccinated, and they threw off all those good social restrictions like mask mandates and limitations on size of group assembly.

Alberta’s fourth wave actually began in the first week of August and peaked on 1 October.  The usual group of bemoaning doctors were paraded out in the media for political effect. They claimed foolish politics was responsible for pushing Alberta healthcare to the verge of collapse.  The pinch point turned out to be ICU cases, which peaked at 278.  Out of a province of 5 million people, 278 brought to “the verge of collapse.”

Alberta actually lagged Ontario by about two weeks in terms of vaccination rates, and that was due to Ottawa supplying Alberta slower with vaccines than Ontario.  (Yes, official Ottawa does have a hate on for Jason Kenny and Alberta in general.)  Nevertheless, Alberta’s fourth wave was the worst in terms of hospitalizations and ICU cases, and second worst (after the second wave) in terms of deaths.  Remarkably, it was supported by a quarter to a fifth of the population that supported the second and third waves, as by the time the fourth wave peaked, over 80 percent of Albertans were vaccinated.

Meanwhile, Ontario suffered little over the same period, and that was self-righteously put down to smart Ontario’s high vaccination rate, compliance with health orders, and vaccine passports.  I put it down to the virus being highly prevalent in Alberta and not so prevalent in Ontario.  Now, that’s changing.  The case rates in Ontario are rising rapidly as Alberta’s continue to drop.

Vested interests in Ontario are already making excuses for the coming failure.  The vaccines need a booster!  The omicron OMG! variant is highly contagious and the vaccines lack effectiveness against it.  The passport system wasn’t sufficiently respected.  Restrictions need to be re-imposed.  All this blaming is to distract attention from the fact that the official experts have never gotten it right and are still wrong.  They pretended that they knew how to control this pandemic, and that pretence is wearing thin.  The fact is, the pandemic has moved back to Ontario and there’s nothing to do except to ride it out.  The advice of the experts is as much a waste of time now as it was back in March, 2020, the fifteen days to flatten the curve.

The conditioning to obedience will soon make people feel foolish.  All those who righteously condemned the unvaccinated for perpetuating the pandemic will soon find that they are deemed unvaccinated - because the goalposts got moved, again.  All this is to protect the professional reputations of those who arrogantly pretended to know what to do, and were wrong.

The whole approach of centralized control was the wrong response.  It precluded the genius of the 99 percent who didn’t run the system from applying itself to the problem.  Instead of thousands of ideas, we got one.  And that one had to be protected against failure because otherwise the justification for centralized control would collapse.

It seems plain today that until a substantial proportion of the population have developed natural immunity the pandemic will continue.  Vaccination might mitigate the effects of an infection, but that’s a damned expensive way of treating COVID when therapeutics such as monoclonal antibodies are available and need only be administered to those who need it.  Central control went crazy demanding people get vaccinated to ward off a fourth wave, but when it comes it turns out the protection of the vaccines has waned to the point that “boosters” are needed.  How efficient is that compared to treating just the sick who need it with therapeutics?

Our experts neglected therapeutics for some reason, and only now is the public becoming aware of them, like monoclonal antibodies.  Previously, therapeutics were condemned because President Trump promoted them.  The pandemic response was conditioned by the priority that Trump had to be beaten at the polls.

Back in Canada, now its Ontario’s turn to host the locusts.  It’s going to be bitter after all that prideful condemnation of those Alberta cowboys.  But there is hope.

The severity of a pandemic wave is measured by the pressure it applies to the healthcare system.  The hospitalization rate of the fourth wave is about 2 to 3 percent of cases.  If Ontario doubles or triples its ICU capacity, hires enough nurses, and adopts therapeutics like monoclonal antibodies it will be able to ride out the wave without too much whining from health professionals, who didn’t sign on for this much work.

The pandemic response has always been about centralized control and for the exercise of sheer, undemocratic power by those who never dreamed of having this much before.  Ontarians can do themselves a favor by resisting control measures and demanding more performance out of the healthcare system instead.

Only by the development of natural immunity will this pandemic be put behind us.  Meanwhile, remember all the social division created to enforce centralized control.  Meanwhile, remember all the social division created to enforce the decisions of centralized control.

Treating just those who need it with therapeutics such as monoclonal antibodies is far more efficient and less costly than vaccinating 12 million people – all of whom need to be vaccinated again because the first two doses wore off.

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Thursday, December 16, 2021

Ford’s call to arms!

Vincent J. Curtis

16 Dec 21

Ontario Premier Doug Ford, announced a “call to arms!”  Ford wants to give booster vaccinations to 300,000 Ontarians a day.  With 15 million Ontarians, that would only take two months to accomplish, or about the length of time for a pandemic wave to crest and begin to decline all on its own.

Ford’s call to arms admitted inter alia that vaccinations are failing.  Two doses need a booster to protect people from infection.  Breakthrough infections are so common among the doubly vaccinated that they comprise the majority of active COVID cases in Ontario.  Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland was so distrustful of her booster and mask protection that she didn’t attend the House to present her budget update after she was exposed to COVID positive people, and testing negative herself.  Boosters and masks are what Ford wants Ontarians to rely on.  Then, he demonstrates his true faith by imposes capacity limits!  Remember, all this is to protect the healthcare system.

Ford said nothing about therapeutics, those drugs that mitigate the symptoms of COVID after infection.  Presently, hospitalized healthcare is limited to hand-holding, though it will put a patient on ventilator if breathing help becomes necessary.  About Remdesivir, Regeneron, Merck’s new Mulnupiravir, what I call “Pfizermectin,” and other therapeutics nothing was said.

They have power, so that makes them dangerous.  But how seriously are we supposed to take political leadership that is so maifestly out of its league?

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Wednesday, December 15, 2021

WMO confirmed nothing

Vincent J. Curtis

15 Dec 21

RE: 2020 Arctic heat record confirmed.  News item by the Associated Press published in The Hamilton Spectator 15 Dec 21

The Spectator must wonder why so many actual scientists and amateur researchers are so skeptical, indeed derisive, of the whole climate change theory.  One reason is the falsehoods that are offered as facts in support of global warming.

The UN weather agency (World Meteorological Organization) allegedly confirmed that a temperature of 38℃ (100 F) recorded in Verkhoyansk, Siberia, on June 20, 2020, was “the highest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic.”   Except that it isn’t.  A temperature of 38℃ (100 F) was recorded in Fort Yukon, Alaska, on June 27, 1915, and Fort Yukon is north of the Arctic Circle.  This temperature is in the NOAA database, so it would be an act of deception for NOAA to “confirm” the WMO finding.  (Note, atmospheric CO2 levels were about 300 ppm back in 1915.)

Likewise, the claim that 54℃ (130 F) is a new world record high temperature recorded in Death Valley is also false.  Furnace Creek in Death Valley recorded a high of 57℃ (134 F) on 10 July, 1913.  By eliminating data prior to 1979, you can make it look like the earth has never been here before.

Last year, Canada’s Minister of Climate Change, Jonathan Wilkinson, announced that “Canada was warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world.”  Now, according to the WMO, it’s the Arctic that’s heating up at twice those of the global average.  Wow, it seems like everywhere is heating up at twice the rate of everywhere else!

Lying works only in the short term.

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What many Christians have right about COVID

Vincent J. Curtis

15 Dec 21

RE: How many Christians are wrong about COVID.  Op-ed by Daniel Kralt, whose young son is suffering from cancer, and Mr. Kralt is understandably bitter about it.  The Hamilton Spectator 15 Dec 21.

The daily arrogance-slash-ignorance award has to go to Daniel Kralt for his vain effort to tell conservative Christians what they ought to believe, and why they are hypocrites for not acting as Kralt thinks they ought.

The key point that Kralt completely missed is that the vaccines were tested against cells from an aborted fetus during their development.  For many Christians, this association with abortion is a show-stopper.  They do not wish to be injected with a vaccine developed by immoral means.  The hierarchy of the Catholic Church thinks vaccination is morally permissible, and that’s okay.  Not every Christian, indeed not every Catholic, has to agree.

As for Kralt’s exegesis of alleged Christian morality, he mistakes modernism for the real deal, particularly the part about his being able to read Jesus’s mind.  His appeal is all about obeying Caesar, and never mind your conscience.

Kralt is completely at sea when it comes to “the science.”  Masking, lockdowns, and capacity limits have failed to control the ebb and flow of the pandemic.  Even the vaccines aren’t what they were cracked up to be.  Caesar hasn’t got this one.  Obeisance in for form of mask wearing and getting vaccinated is not a sign of Christianity.

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Tuesday, December 14, 2021

Soak your Marxist heads

Vincent J. Curtis

14 Dec 21

RE: Doug Ford’s housing crisis lip service.  Hamilton Spectator editorial 14 Dec 21

The Arts Majors who type editorials for the Spectator need to broaden their knowledge of economics.  The answer to the housing crisis won’t be found in the pages of Das Kapital or The Communist Manifesto.  At the risk of one’s hair catching fire, the answer will be found in the works of Thomas Sowell, such as Visions of the Anointed and Discrimination and Disparities.  The housing crisis is caused by a shortage of new land for housing development.

The present crisis was caused by the imposition of the “green zone” around Toronto.  This prevented new housing development to occur north of Toronto.  Hamilton is contributing to the problem by refusing to expand its urban boundary.  The purpose of Ford’s task force on housing affordability is to discover and promulgate Thomas Sowell’s insight, and thus create conditions for the release of new land for housing development.

Marx is useful to the power-hungry and the nihilists, who each seek to exploit social upheaval for their own ends.  But Marx is empty of real answers to real problems.  Hence, the editorial writers should soak their heads, read Thomas Sowell, and come to see the light.

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Monday, December 13, 2021

Helpful carbon hints

Vincent J. Curtis

13 Dec 21

RE: City top carbon polluter in GTA.  News article by Matthew van Dongen, The Hamilton Spectator 13 Dec 21.

The region needs a plan to avoid climate catastrophe, says some ‘agency.’  Here are some helpful hints from Alberta that will keep Hamilton, and Hamilton alone, from suffering this climate ‘catastrophe.’ (Burlington, you’re out of luck!)

Stop heating your homes with Alberta natural gas.  Huddle together to keep warm this winter, subject, of course, to COVID mandates: vaxxerd with vaxxed; unvaxxd with unvaxxed; masks are mandatory, households, and total numbers. etc.  Freezing to death is bad, but dying of COVID is bad form.

Stop driving to and from work, and to and from the grocery store.  Your dying of poverty and malnutrition in 2022 will be good for the climate in the year 2050.  If you leave no descendants, that’s good for the year 2100.

Stop primary steel making at Dofasco.  Saving Hamilton from a climate catastrophe is more important than the jobs or the tax revenue.

Eat tofu.  By not eating flatulent Alberta cattle, you indirectly benefit Hamilton.  Stop eating bread and other wheat based products.  Wheat is grown in Saskatchewan, and a lot of fossil fuel is burned planting, cultivating, harvesting, and processing wheat into bread and other staples that are delivered by truck to your supermarket.  Oh, and stop using canola oil.  That too is grown in Saskatchewan and Alberta.  Make the best use you can from that prime farm land you want to save from developers.

Don’t breathe so much.  Exerting yourself only adds to the CO2 you produce as a living being, so no activities that raise the heartrate, like exercise or huddling too closely with your significant other.  Producing more Hamiltonians is definitely bad for Hamilton’s climate.  Fewer people means less pollution.

Such is the world that the climate crazies want.  It seems a little dystopian, but fresh from their victories imposing COVID restrictions, progressives think they can pull some of this off.

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Friday, December 10, 2021

The object is humiliation with enforcing stupidity

Vincent J. Curtis

10 Dec 21

RE: Hamilton stops using the name ‘gypsy moth’ Hamilton Spectator news item 9 Dec 21.

The object of placing the name ‘gypsy moth’ in the category of bad isn’t to protect the sensitivity of authentic gypsies.  It is to humiliate the rest of us.

We are going to be subjected to the humiliation of having our English corrected by bogus claims of the morally pious.  The pious, who hold themselves morally superior to the rest of us, cannot point to a single, authentic gypsy who objects to calling a moth a ‘gypsy moth.’

And what are we to do with the old RCAF trainer aircraft of that name – the Gypsy Moth?

The word gypsy is said to be a term of opprobrium because it is associated with low moral character and with a nomadic lifestyle.  It is most often applied to a race of people called Roma, but to be Roma and to be a gypsy are two different things.  Why a Roma would object to calling a moth a ‘gypsy moth’ beggars the imagination.  The moths themselves simply don’t care.  What are we to do in the case of the German measles?  Does the swine flu have to be renamed because people who were once called swine object?

This isn’t about protecting the sensitivities of the overly sensitive.  It’s about humiliating the rest of us with enforced stupidity.  We’re going to be condemned for our insensitivity by the morally superior who care nothing for our sensitivities.

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RHVP Inquiry to cost $20 million

Vincent J. Curtis

10 Dec 21

You should have been able to hear the belly laughs all the way from Alberta.  Instead of spending $300k on an engineering study to get the facts quickly, city council voted to hire a judge to determine “root causes” and uncover “corruption” and in general to point fingers.  Council didn’t blanch at the differences in initial estimates of costs, $300k versus $7 million.  No amount is too much for our legal profession!

Here is the root cause: accommodating environmental concerns, and sacrificing a little engineering good sense for the sake of the squirrels.  Hence, instead of straight, we got winding.  To slow water run-off which might cause erosion of the precious creek, we got too little banking in the curves.  We got no lighting on the upper half to not disturb the tranquility of the endangered Red Hill flying squirrel.  Use asphalt soft enough to compensate for these weaknesses, and the pavement will be falling apart in just a few years with all the heavy truck traffic.

How much and how long will it take for the lawyers to discover the above answers?  Will they accept them politically, given the implications against powerful political interests?  How much of the re-paving could have been covered with $20 million?

This waste of money was foreseeable from the start, but it cost the councillors none of their personal money to cover their asses with a “judicial inquiry!”

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Thursday, December 9, 2021

Conversion Therapy now banned

Vincent J. Curtis

9 Dec 21

The LGBTQ community and its allies in the progressive movement think it won a great victory with the coming into law of the banning of so-called “conversion therapy.”  All it’s going to take is for one prosecutor and one judge who didn’t get the memo to turn the intent of this law on its head.

What is the administering of hormones and sex change surgery anything other than “conversion” “therapy?”  Sex change is deemed therapy for those with certain psychological problems, and the change is a conversion from male to female or from female to male.  Hence, sex change seems to be a prima facie case of conversion therapy, which is now banned!  Even if prosecutors aren’t willing to take on cases like these, tort action against doctors, surgeons, and parents will become available.

Likewise, what are these GSA clubs, so heavily promoted in schools?  Gay-straight alliances are intended to ease the transition of heterosexuals into homosexuality.  The GSAs, in short, offer psychological therapy for the change from heterosexuality into homosexuality, and these clubs ought therefore to be banned for offering now illegal services.  Tort action could also happen against the teachers supervising the clubs and school boards that permit them.

A little bit of legal ju jitsu is all its going to take to turn triumph into disaster for the LGBTQ community.  Be careful of what you wish for!

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Tuesday, December 7, 2021

JK Rowling they ain't

Vincent J. Curtis

7 Dec 21

RE: The painful lessons of B.C.’s flooding.  Hamilton Spectator editorial of 7 Dec 21.

Creative writing frees the author from limitations of reality, of logic, and of the laws of physics.  (Creative drawing, same thing!)    One such law is that if a cause is not present or not operating, then its effect is not occurring.  They must teach a lot of creating writing in J-school.

High River, AB, learned a painful lesson from its flood of 2013: don’t build on a flood plain!  The area around Abbotsford, B.C. used to be a lake bed, and surprise! if nature didn’t come along and refill the lake one day.  These were acts of nature, not climate change, for the simple reason that the climate hasn’t changed yet, not by man-caused temperature rise anyway.

Between 1998 and the present, satellite temperatures measurements have recorded a 0.25℃ increase, so small you can’t see it on an ordinary mercury thermometer.  Climate change hasn’t happened yet, and that’s why the B.C. flooding is called a ‘harbinger’ and not the actual thing.

No matter! We then get the siren-song of what Jonah Goldberg called ‘Liberal Fascism’: the moral equivalent of war. We have to shovel more money into the Church of Climate Change, however unavailing that would be.  Spending on the Church of Infrastructure (bracing for impact) might have helped in B.C. but that lacks the sex-appeal of climate change.

“It’s signature is extremes” cry the editors, as if extremes never happened before.  Of course they did, as a matter of logic “extremes” must have happened before climate change.  Even the editors estimate the presence of climate change by the exceeding of the previous extreme!  Logic!  Apparently, they’ve never heard of the natural drought-flood phenomenon, as occurs in, oh, California and Australia.  Only extremes, nothing in between.  B.C. is also to expect both “long-term water shortages” and “severe flooding.”  As well as the tragic “loss of glacier mass.”  B.C. is either “on fire or under water.”  Some people you can never please!

This was taken from the Government of Canada Ministry of Environment and Climate Change webpage.  (Link below)

For streams draining the coastal slopes of British Columbia, peak flows may also occur during the fall and early winter as a result of storm rainfall. These floods can potentially be greater than the springmelt peaks. The most severe events happen during a cool early winter with a shallow snowcover down to low elevations. With the onset of warm temperatures from a major storm system, snowmelt from higher elevations along with the rainfall contributes to substantial flood runoff.”

The webpage also contains links to Fraser River floods of 1894, 1948, and 1972 as well as to Kicking Horse Pass of 1978.  So this has happened before, but laziness or deceit keep it out of the news.  The media burn their credibility on the pyre of climate change.

Poetic descriptor like “atmospheric river” and “vaccine inequity” become expressions of science and fact in Hogwart.  But JK Rowling, those guys ain’t!

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The quote can be found at the following link:

Flooding events in Canada: British Columbia - Canada.ca

 

Vaccine equity?

Vincent J. Curtis

6 Dec 21

RE: Time to unite and fight global vaccine inequity.  Op-ed by Vardit Ravitsky, Bio-ethics professor at University of Montreal and Harvard University. The Hamilton Spectator 6 Dec 21..

What’s with all the Marxism?  Fight and unite over vaccine inequity?  I thought Marxists knew something about economics! Has crypto-currency dulled their interest in market and labour conditions?

Let’s begin at the beginning.  The vaccines did not come into full production until early this year.  If 100 million doses were made per month, with seven billion people on earth, it would take six years to give everyone one dose.  Safe vaccines require exceptionally clean production conditions, and the production facilities require special approvals by relevant authorities to ensure that people won’t be injected with poison.  Besides that, you need hundreds of millions of tiny glass bottles, aluminum rings, septums, all in a sterile production line, and hypodermics to administer vaccines.  I can tell you that rural western Canada has low rates of vaccination because vaccines just aren’t distributed outside of urban areas.

Yet, we’re informed that hateful wealthy countries – the ones that developed the vaccines and are now producing them – jumped the line and purchased most of the world’s vaccines (well, who else will to ensure start-up of full production?), and that this global inequity is ethically despicable.  The crass ignorance of the bioethics prof of production is utterly disqualifying.  He may have credentials, but they aren’t in production engineering!

You know what’s ethically despicable? – the Soviet gulag system and the Uighur re-education camps.  It’s also ethically despicable to suggest that African countries can produce their own vaccines just like that.  Sorry, not even Canada is producing its own vaccines because we lack the pharmaceutical infrastructure.  (Late in the day, Merck announed a $19 million investment in Canada to produce vaccines.) We contracted with China to produce a vaccine, and that didn’t work out.

COVID is not a big deal in Africa.  Africa is a young continent, and young people don’t need vaccination.  It’s not that widespread.  Namibia has had 400 total cases since March, 2020.   And the vaccines lose effectiveness after six months, so what’s the point?  Never mind that distribution of vaccines into countries like the Congo, Sudan, Ethiopia, The Central African Republic, Rwanda, Libya, and a host of others is fraught with problems of war and corruption.  There’s no guarantee that shipping vaccines to Africa will get to people, and won’t wind up enriching guerrilla movements and corrupt officials everywhere.  Our bioethicist takes no account of this.  We have to just “unite and fight.”

Unsurprisingly, the west is menaced with novel variants of the virus, and they want a $10 billion per year contribution from western nations to some sort of insurance fund.  Yeah.

Marxist analysis is ethically despicable.

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Monday, December 6, 2021

Fish & Chips: Analysis of The Fish Report on Sexual Misconduct in the CAF

Vincent J. Curtis

13 July 21

Part 1: Keeping Command Clueless

The Report of the Third Independent Review Authority, also known as the Fish Report, was written by The Honourable Morris J. Fish, C.C., Q.C, a retired Justice of the Supreme Court of Canada.  The report is 400 pages long and contains wide ranging reviews of the military justice system.  It became newsworthy upon its release because Chapter 2, eighteen pages long, covers Sexual Misconduct, and makes several recommendations to reform the military justice system to deal with that one problem.

Justice Fish is not a warrior; nor are any of the people he consulted in preparing that chapter.  Fish was not alive to the teachings of Ardant du Picq, who wrote about the need for iron discipline in the unit and the army.  Du Picq’s insights are plainly implicit in the works of Sun Tzu, Jomini, and Clausewitz.  Iron discipline creates morale, and eventually esprit de corps.  A strongly disciplined army is a superior fighting instrument that, with decent weapons and a modicum of generalship, will prevail over a less disciplined force in battle.  Military justice is ultimately a means of keeping the army fit to fight.

Unawares, Fish writes instead that military justice is for “the welfare, security, and health of CAF members.”  This civilian’s understanding of justice is perfectly respectable, but it leads him to recommend changes to military justice that will undermine morale, discipline, and trust in military command.

Fish’s principal mistake is special pleading concerning sexual misconduct.  Special pleading is the logical error of saying, “he’s special, so he is exempted from following the rules.”  Special pleading is common and, if small, tolerable; but Fish’s pleading gets so convoluted that even he realizes it and punts the ball.

Consider a Pay Officer whose duty it is to pay the troops. But he’s special.  He decides one day that he “just isn’t ready, and doesn’t want to.”  He pleads that, being special, he doesn’t have to.  The troops have a duty to report service offences to the chain of command, including the offence of sexual misconduct.  Fish argues that the duty to report should be lifted in cases of sexual misconduct because it forces victims to report when “they’re not ready, or may not want to.”

What about confidantes of the victim and witnesses to the offense, who are also service members?  Here things get complicated.  Maybe the duty to report should be lifted from them too, lest the fulfillment of their duty outs the victim?  Perhaps, Fish muses, a report to the Sexual Misconduct Response Centre (SMRC) can be made to fulfill the duty?

The problem with that is the SMRC is outside the chain of command, and cannot initiate a disciplinary investigation; while the Commander, who is responsible for his unit, is kept in the dark and may suspect nothing until CFNIS guys start lurking around his lines.  The Commander can’t maintain discipline in the ranks if he is kept unawares.  Then, the incident goes down as another one of those failures of the CAF to deal with an instance of sexual misconduct, and was unaware that there was a problem!

Another approach, Fish suggests, is to lift the duty to report altogether on this particular service offence from everyone involved, victim, confidantes, and witnesses, leaving the SMRC as a reporting option.  In this case, “the victims would retain full control over their fate and their narrative, an outcome consistent with the policy of the [Declaration of Victim’s Rights.]”  Again, special pleading keeps the local Commander in the dark.

Nevertheless, Fish believes that removing the duty to report “from victims, their confidantes, and health and support professionals offers the best path to renewed confidence in the system.”  (Fish left out witnesses.)  How keeping Commanders uninformed inspires confidence in the system to outsiders like the media and the government – by design the system doesn’t know, can’t react, and is made to look clueless - is left unexplained.

In gets no better in Part 2.

************

Part 2: Punting the Ball

We resume the analysis of the Fish Report, Chapter 2, Sexual Misconduct.

Last time, we observed how convoluted the reasoning gets when Justice Fish recommended eliminating the duty to report service offences to the chain of command in respect of sexual misconduct.  The rationale of solicitousness towards ‘the victim’ kept the chain of command in the dark and unable to respond to the underlying disciplinary problem in the ranks.

He continued.  After saying without proof that victims simply didn’t trust the chain of command, Fish goes on to suggest the SMRC is also untrusted because it’s not fully independent of the chain of command, the VCDS being responsible for its budget.  Strengthening the independence of the SMRC, Fish asserts on the basis of SMRC submissions, “would increase victim confidence in the organization.”  Sounds like empire-building is afoot at SMRC!

How a private soldier in Shilo develops confidence through Ottawa-level bureaucratic machinations Fish doesn’t explain, but the underlying assumption here is that the victim is some fragile little flower fearful of command.  Her professional job might involve sticking a bayonet into the guts of some enemy bastard.  How Private Flowers can reasonably be expected to have what it takes to blow somebody’s brains out when she’s also expected to fall to pieces reporting a sexual assault goes unexplored.  But never mind; Fish’s reporting option is supported by Justice Deschamps (passim), the Deputy Minister, the JAG, the SMRC, and “experts in the field” – none of whom are warriors.

Fish finally comes to realize the rationale of special pleading leads to complications after he turns to the duty to report of witnesses.  Removing the duty from witnesses, “might foster a climate in which members remain passive in the face of misconduct.”  Well, yeah!  The principle of special pleading is hanging out there, and if applicable to sexual misconduct, why not to other offenses?  It’s hard to contain a principle like passivity.

While maintaining the duty to report on witnesses “would help find and punish the perpetrators…on the other hand, preserving the duty to report on witnesses might deprive victims of their autonomy, as they would be drawn into the investigative process against their will.”  Fish reached a vicious circle.  Prepare to punt!

The SMRC has recommended that the removal of the duty to report should not apply (the removal being removed!) where there exists “a risk of imminent harm, harm to children, national security.”

At this point, Fish, having realized his position is untenable, punts the ball thusly:

Recommendation #70:  An exception to the duty to report incidents of sexual misconduct should be established for victims, their confidantes, and the health and support professionals consulted by them.  Their duty to report should be retained, however, where a failure to report would pose a clear and serious risk to an overriding interest, which may include ongoing or imminent harm, harm to children, and national security concerns.  A working group should be established to include an independent authority and representatives of the [SMRC], military victims’ organizations and the military justice system.  The working group should also consider (a) the removal of the duty of witnesses to report incidents of sexual misconduct; and (b) requiring witnesses to report incidents of sexual misconduct to the [SMRC] only.

Try explaining that to Herbie on a basic military training course!

But what happens if a witness reports anyway?  Would he or she be committing an offence by reporting an instance of sexual misconduct without the permission of ‘the victim’?  The whole edifice created to protect ‘the victim who may not be ‘ready’ collapses if a witness reports the offense to the chain of command.

Other problems for Fish: the breadth of “sexual misconduct.”  DAOD 9005-1 misconduct ranges from off-colour jokes to penetrative rape, and Fish treats the entire range with the moral gravity of penetrative rape.  Second, ‘victim’ presumes guilt.  A ‘victim’ is a complainant until the accused is proven guilty.

This leads to Part 3.

 

************

Part 3: The rising empire

In Part 2, we saw Justice Fish punting the ball on the duty to report sexual misconduct.  He recommended for study an edifice of conditions of who should report what, when and to whom that is incomprehensible to OCdt Herbie, and it all falls apart if a witness reports the offence to the chain of command anyway.  Sexual misconduct of any kind is treated with the moral gravity of penetrative rape.  Complainants are called ‘victims.’

By a flaw in gathering statistical data known as survivor bias, the SMRC convinced itself that ‘victims’ don’t trust ‘the system.’  (You can claim no soldier died in WWII relying on survivor bias.)

We saw empire building by an SMRC that is struggling to get independent of DND on the plea – asserted without evidence - of gaining the confidence of ‘victims,’ - who, in their professional lives, are trained to shoot people dead.

Fish’s special pleading on sexual misconduct embraces the SMRC.  “Victims of sexual misconduct must be provided the support they need to report the misconduct when they are ready and inclined to do so, without fear that their well-being, careers, or personal lives will be compromised.  Strengthening the independence of the SMRC would attenuate these concerns (he says without evidence!).  Providing free, independent legal advice (via the SMRC!) would as well.”  This solicitousness keeps the chain of command unable to respond to indiscipline in the ranks.

Suppose Col Anonymous Accuser underhandedly withheld reporting an allegation of sexual misconduct for thirty three years, and meanwhile then-OCdt Buttrum had risen to become a high profile Major General?  How does waiting restore discipline?  This example is indistinguishable from a political hit-job that creates chaos.

 The SMRC used the Fish investigation to advance its drive for independence.  SMRC complained to Fish that their dependence on the VCDS to report their budget to the Deputy Minister compromised their independence.  Fish had his doubts until the SMRC further complained that, as an entity within DND, it had to follow all departmental policies and processes prior to any public communication.  Note the pleading, “We’re special; we should be exempted from the rules!” Fish relents, and says, “the credibility of the SMRC requires that it be able to speak publicly about its findings without undergoing the policies and processes of the DND or CAF.”

Fish then recommends that SMRC become an untethered entity within government.  Recommendation #71: “The relationship between the [SMRC] on the one hand and the [CAF] and [DND] on the other should be reviewed to insure that the SMRC is afforded an appropriate level of independence from both.  The review should be conducted by an independent authority.”

The empire building continues.  Having become as independent as a horse fly is from the horse, the SMRC wants to be staffed to supply free, independent, civilian legal advice to ‘victims.’  “This would improve the safety of CAF members everywhere,” exclaims Fish!  And makes Recommendation #72 to that effect.

After crying that the SMRC is unable to monitor CAF accountability for sexual misconduct incidents and how they are managed (as if Fish and the SMRC weren’t hand-in-glove to keep the chain of command from working!) Fish makes Recommendation #73 to the effect that the SMRC be tasked and funded to monitor CAF adherence to sexual misconduct policy.  The SMRC should have broad access to all the information it needs, he recommends, and if the SMRC doesn’t get what it wants, Parliament should empower the ladies of the SMRC to compel production of evidence!

To recap: special pleading on sexual misconduct leads to MGen Buttrum paying for allegations against OCdt Buttrum.  The SMRC is special, and needs more money and power. The SMRC receives all the complaints, bypassing chain of command, whom they then monitor for compliance with policy.  The SMRC will provide free, civilian legal advice to soldier-victims on a budget that is not reviewable by the CAF or DND.  And SMRC gains bureaucratic bite from Parliament.

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Part 4: Conclusion

We conclude the Fish follies, finally!

Part 1 explained that the ultimate aim of military justice is to build discipline that, in turn, creates a fighting edge in the unit and army.  Fish and cohort are not warriors, and Fish seeks to import principles of the civilian justice system into the military justice system, which have difference purposes.

We saw how special pleading leads to keeping the chain of command unaware of sexual misconduct and unable to react to instances of indiscipline.  We saw that while sexual misconduct covers a lot of sins, from off-colour jokes and pin-ups to penetrative rape, Fish treats it all as penetrative rape.  We saw that the SMRC is using the Fish investigation to broaden its empire and gain not just independence from the DND and CAF, but powers of bureaucratic punishment over them.

Fish concludes his review of sexual misconduct with a recommendation to import the principles of restorative justice into the military justice system.  Pursuing a feminist vision of justice, the SMRC wants restorative justice in the case of sexual misconduct because it coerces the perp to “acknowledge the harm caused and promote a sense of responsibility in the offender…it provides the opportunity for the victim and perpetrator to work in tandem toward accountability and restitution.”  Presumably, this humiliation occurs after the court martial and the perp is released from Edmonton.

Things get really feminine when SMRC is concerned that fear of disproportionate punishment of the perp may cause some victims not to come forward because they do not necessarily want the perp to lose his job!  (An admission of the politicization of the charge.) Nevertheless, restorative justice can provide victims with “answers to some of their questions, which may reduce their fear and anxiety and promote healing”

The Empire joined with the JAG to cause Fish to make Recommendation #74: “The [JAG] and the [SMRC] should cooperate to make a joint proposal to the [MND] in respect of amendments to the [NDA] which would allow for restorative justice approaches in the military justice system.  They should also collaborate to develop a formalized restorative justice model that is adapted to the needs of victims and perpetrators and suited to the reality of the CAF and its justice system.”  The CDS is cut out of this and reduced to a bystander as his tool of discipline is recast along feminist lines!

All the elaboration the Fish report would create is to deal with the “persistent, pre-occupying, and widespread problem” of sexual misconduct, and the “corrosive effect” it has on discipline.  But what about corrosive effect that politicizing sexual misconduct has on unit cohesion when the unit includes women?

Women already face a barrier of mistrust and suspicion from men concerning their motivation and capability, and politicizing sexual misconduct into a cosmic crime will only make that barrier higher and thicker. The mere accusation of sexual misconduct is a career-ender.  Failing to deal with it in a timely manner, when memories are fresh, witnesses available, and damage containable creates opportunities for blackmail and vindictiveness, and is harmful to the efficiency of the CAF.  Adm Art MacDonald, VAdm Haydn Edmundson, and MGen Deny Fortin were brought low by mere accusation up to three decades after the alleged offense.  Not good for the CAF.

Already, it’s good practice among men never to be alone with a woman.  Mentoring of women by men is rare.  On courses, females socialize in the male lines, never the reverse because men understand the power of the accusation.  The military is a highly social institution, and females may be segregated at after work drinking and chatting.  Distrust could lead to the stifling of opportunities because a female represents deeply personal risk.

The ultimate purpose of military justice is the efficiency of the CAF.  The political extremism concerning “sexual misconduct” is great for bureaucrats and “experts” – it make them important.  That same extremism will chill career development of ordinary women.

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