Good News on COVID Front

Vincent J. Curtis

22 Oct 20

There is good news to report on the pandemic front.  Cases in Ontario appear to be peaking, while hospitalization and ICU figures are starting to drop.  Daily death rates continue to be low and stable, at around five or six per day.

Comparing the shape and duration of the cases curve from the first wave, this second wave should be falling below two hundred cases per day by the end of November.  Hospitalizations, which are already low, won’t show much change.  Unless a third wave begins, the pandemic, as measured by cases, will be practically defunct by the end of the year.

The rise and fall of the second wave happened without strenuous intervention in the way of government lockdowns and in spite of masking mandates.  A lot of crow deserves to be eaten, but parceling out morsels can wait for another time.

The important point is, that the second wave is peaking, and unless there is a third wave, the pandemic by any measure, will be over by the end of the year.

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