Thinking Like A Businessman

Vincent J. Curtis

10 Aug 2020

Recent equipment purchases on behalf of the CAF – shockingly! - do not accord with business sense.  Only superficially are they sensible.  Let’s examine how a businessman might go about the acquisitions of the C-19, the Harry DeWolf class of patrol vessels, and an acquisition of handguns.

The C-19 is the new bolt-gun for the Canadian Rangers.  It is replacing the venerable Long Branch No. 4 Mk I* Lee-Enfield, last manufactured in the early 1950s.  The C-19 is a modified Tikka T3x Arctic.  It employs a Mauser-like two-lug bolt action, and has a ten round detachable box magazine.  The bolt handle and the trigger guard are oversized for work with gloved hands.  The bolt handle is angled to that the hand is placed next to the trigger on closing, and the bolt turns at a quick 60 degrees, mimicking the No. 4.  It has a 20” medium-heavy barrel with nice iron sights and a blaze-orange composite stock.  It comes with a Picatinny rail over the action for optic mounting.  The rifle offers good, but not superb, accuracy

A nice rifle, priced at $2,800 retail. The Canadian government paid $4,000 for the Ranger version.  The businessman would ask, “Why are we paying a premium to Sako when Colt Canada can make brand new No. 4 Lee-Enfield actions royalty free?”  The Lee-Enfield is what the Rangers were used to.  Into a Colt-built No. 4 action, Colt can thread one of their magnificent medium-heavy barrels and bed the barrelled action in a blaze orange composite stock like the Tikka.  This rifle can use the same iron sights.  The Lee-Enfield comes with a detachable ten round magazine.  A Picatinny rail can be installed over the No. 4 action by modifying the contour of the charger bridge to serve as the rear mount, and the front of the receiver for the front mount.  There’s your C-19 built around a No 4 Lee-Enfield action instead of a Tikka.  A better No. 5 carbine?

A strategic business benefit falls to Colt Canada.  Besides having a famous new product to sell, at least half a million No. 4’s remain in private hands in Canada.  Many need spare parts to remain serviceable, and Colt would be the manufacturer of these spare parts. There would be ongoing business for Colt Canada beyond the government.

Now, let’s take a quick look at the Harry DeWolf Arctic Patrol vessels.  A short detour.  Auto parts manufacturers used to buy moulds and dies from North American machine shops.  A bumper or a fender would be stamped out of sheet metal in one of these moulds.  Let’s say a mould cost $100,000.  During the recession of 2000-2002, China joined the World Trade Organization.  When the car business came out of recession, the parts makers went to China for moulds.  Of course, they came back out of spec, and the Chinese moulds were sent to the North American mould makers to be put right.  The parts maker paid the Chinese $20k for the mould, and $30k for the re-work.  The parts maker saved himself $50k.  Now, apply this to ships.

Let’s say a DeWolf costs $1 billion. We could buy an ice-breaker from Russia for $200 million, and then pay Irving $500 million to have the Russian vessel put into the condition we want.  Canada saves herself $300 million.

I’ve written about handguns before, and the sticking point seems to be that Canada wants only 10,000 of them and Colt Canada has to build them.  Glock isn’t going to let Colt build Glocks.  Likewise, Beretta, Smith & Wesson, Walther, and Sig.

But, the Colt M45 is a perfectly viable sidearm in today’s militaries.  As is the Browning Hi-Power.  Why can’t Colt Canada build new Hi-Powers?  During the War, Canada acquired the rights from FN to make 250,000, and built nowhere near that many.  We’re using Hi-Powers now.  Don’t let “tacticool” pistol snobs deflect you from making a good, practical decision.

Businessmen think different when it’s their money.

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Boeing makes its business case for new Canadian fighter jet

Vincent J. Curtis

27 Oct 20

Block III Super Hornet best all round for economics and transition..

At a media webinar held on October 27th, Boeing laid out its business case for Canada selecting the Block III Super Hornet as the replacement fighter jet for the CF-18 Hornet.  In a nutshell, the Super Hornet meets all the RCAF operational requirements, offers a very high degree of backward compatibility with the current installed fleet, and Boeing plans on spending one hundred percent of the contract value in Canada, either through direct supply purchases or through offsetting purchase placement in Canada for Boeing’s other projects.

ITB, Industrial and Technology Benefits policy, is the Canadian government’s means of leveraging procurement, and the Boeing conference hit that policy point hard.  The policy requires companies awarded defense procurement contracts to undertake business activity in Canada equal to the value of the contract they have won.

Ottawa-based Doyletech Corporation outlined the ITB angle of Boeing’s proposal.  It estimates the forty year life cycle of the fighter program, including acquisition and maintenance, will cost C$61 Billion and create about 250,000 person-years of work in highly paid jobs.  All regions of Canada will benefit.

In particular, five of Canada’s largest aerospace companies will be subcontracted for work: CAE (Montreal), L3Harris Technologies (Mirabel), Peraton Canada (Calgary); Raytheon Canada (Calgary), and GE Canada Aviation (Mississauga).  Briefly, CAE will provide simulators and training; L3Harris depot and base maintenance; Peraton avionics repair and overhaul; Raytheon warehousing and supply chain services at Cold Lake and Bagotville and possibly avionics radar support; and GE engine maintenance and overhaul for the F414 engines.  These companies already have strong relationships with Boeing in Canada, and a Block III Super Hornet purchase would continue and extend those relationships.

Doyletech reports that in 2019, Boeing’s direct expenditures in Canada was C$2.3 Billion, an increase of 15 % since 2015.  Canada is one of Boeing’s top three supply locations outside the U.S. and virtually all of Boeing’s production in Canada is exported.  Boeing participates in Industry-University linkages and research networks across Canada.

Besides the direct and indirect work and economic activity of a Super Hornet acquisition, Doyletech estimates that municipal governments will reap $994 Million and provincial governments, $6.8 Billion, presumably in tax and services revenue over forty years.  The Federal government will recoup $8.5 Billion in revenue.

Doyletech’s assessment mentioned Boeing’s century long presence in Canada.  Because of Boeing’s already large investments in Canada, in every region, Boeing is a major player in every aerospace industrial cluster in Canada. Boeing buys a lot locally; and through its many contracts, including the C-17 Globemaster, CH-147F Chinook helicopters, Harpoon missiles, UAVs, and weapons system, Boeing has a track record of meeting its ITB commitments. 

EdC questioned Boeing on a number of fronts.  The Block III Super Hornet would be assembled in St. Louis.  This makes sense as the production line is already “hot” and the run of 88 aircraft is relatively short.  Offsetting work would be placed in Canada.

The “fly-away” or per unit cost was said to be tough to answer, and was not answered.  However, Doyletech did estimate that maintenance comprises 70 % of the contract.  A little math places the initial purchase cost at $18.33 Billion, or $208 Million per plane.

A major sales point for choosing the Super Hornet is the efficient and affordable transition from the “classic” Hornet.  There is no change in support structures required.  In addition, the Super Hornet is one of the least expensive fighters to fly, with verified U.S. flying costs of US$18.5k per hour.

When asked about offering the F-15X, Boeing was not surprised at the question, having received it repeatedly.  The short answer is the cost-benefit to Canada favors the Block III Super Hornet.  While Boeing would be happy to supply an F-15, if asked, the Super Hornet would work better on austere airfields.  Being designed for carrier operations, the landing gear is the more robust, and the aircraft has an arrester hook which can minimize landing distance with the right equipment.  There might be a need to modify support structures if the F-15 were selected.

Boeing did not respond to EdC’s question concerning the state of their relationship with the Trudeau government.  Canada was looking to acquire 18 Super Hornets to fill a capability gap as Canada transitioned from Hornets to the new fighter.  Boeing got into a trade dispute with Liberal favorite Bombardier over the latter’s commercial jet business, and the Trudeau government cancelled the order, labelling Boeing as economically harmful to Canada.  This was how purchasing used Australian F/A 18 Hornets originated, out of the reopening of the capability gap.  Bombardier has since exited the commercial aircraft business, eliminating that point of contention.  Given Boeing’s current investments in Canada and its solid ITB record, which it emphasized in the webinar, the Trudeau government ought to have softened its position.  But, no response.

Boeing could shed no light on the acquisition timeline, saying only that 2025 is when delivery is expected and that they would be able to meet that date without trouble.

The business case for a Block III Super Hornet looks impressive.  Questions that remain open are whether RCAF brass has its heart set on stealth or not; given the high costs of stealth, will the government spend the bucks on whiz-bang technology at the behest of the brass; and is the Prime Minister still personally venomous towards Boeing?

Lockheed-Martin, which would supply the F-35, also has wide and deep investments in Canada, and Canada in the F-35 program.  Lockheed-Martin also has a track record of meeting ITB.  What is its business case for the F-35?

A wild-card is the Saab Gripen F proposal.  How would Saab meet Canada’s ITB requirements?

Boeing delivered its business case.

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Reports on Systemic Racism belong in circular file

Vincent J. Curtis

28 Oct 20

RE: A Culture of Systemic anti-Black Racism.  Hamilton Spectator 28 Oct 20.  A report completed at the invitation of McMaster University by a Wilfred Laurier University poobah concluded that a culture of systemic anti-Black racism exists in the McMaster Athletics Department.

You can smell the B.S. wafting from the page.  McMaster Athletics has “a culture of systemic anti-Black racism.”   You mean there are Jim Crow laws?  Separate but equal?  Are Blacks subject to greater restrictions than non-Blacks?  No, no, and no.  So much for the systemic part.

Ah, but it’s not systemic racism per se, it’s a “culture” of systemic racism.  And so we’re lost in abstractions of abstractions, where anything can be plausibly affirmed.  In the concrete world, there is no systemic anti-Black racism at McMaster Athletics, only a “culture” of one, the product of something that doesn’t exist at Mac.

The evidence of a “culture?”  Comments by coaches and players that were interpreted to be racist; somebody used the N-word (how many times has the F-word been used at Mac?), the athletics department didn’t jump insufficiently high to complaints of racism; Admin officials skipped meetings to “address concerns about racism,” the list gets more and more ridiculous.  The evidence betters supports a culture of complaining than of racism.

The extreme progressivist cancel culture in academe is eating its own in this instance.

I wouldn’t ordinarily care if McMaster gets ripped by Laurier, (it happens all the time in athletics!) but the constant drumbeat of false, Marxist assertions that Canada is racist and therefore evil is dangerous.  You only have to look to the U.S. for the consequences.

The report can’t withstand serious scrutiny, the evidence is laughable, and can in no way support the claim of a culture of systemic racism.  The only proper response is to deposit the report in the circular file.

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There's a red wave coming

Vincent J. Curtis

26 Oct 20

RE: It's not that voters are wrong, they're just forgetful.  by Warren Kinsella.  Hamilton Spectator 26 Oct 20.

A delusional Warren Kinsella discovered that even proud, lifelong Democrats are voting for Trump, and he puts this down to forgetfulness.  Voters forget all the bad things Trump has done, and they need reminding or else he’ll squeak out a victory in November.

There is a red wave coming in November.  Trump is going to get re-elected with a larger majority, and control of Congress will pass to the Republicans.  Kinsella was hit by the wave going door to door, and didn’t recognize it.  People don’t need reminding.  They remember the highest stock market in history, lowest unemployment since the 1950s, a growing economy, wage growth, taxes cut, promises being kept including the building of the wall.  Then, the pandemic hit.

People don’t need reminding about Joe Biden.  He wasn’t good enough in his prime, and now that senility is creeping in, people see the disastrous Kamala Harris, AOC plus 3, and Crazy Bernie taking over the show.  They see court packing coming, the Green New Deal, higher taxes, teaching people to hate America, and economic stagnation.  Meanwhile, China takes control.  People are quietly saying “No Thanks.”

Polls don’t show this coming.  Four years of shaming, cancel culture, and six months of Antifa and BLM violence have made people wary of saying they like the results Trump brings.  There is massive early voting going on, a sign of enthusiasm.  Trump rallies of thousands of people are breaking out independent of the campaign, and go unreported.  Joe Biden doesn’t generate enthusiasm.

Since Trump caught the virus, hatred for him has dissipated except among people like Kinsella.  People are voting early, for Trump.

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Time to smash the rebellion

Vincent J. Curtis

24 Oct 20

RE: This land is our land.  The aboriginal occupation of the Foxgate Development site in Caledonia resumed after a judge made permanent an injuction barring non-Foxgate employees from the site.  The protesters claim that, in some mysterious way, hold title to the land and are saving it from development by colonialists.  Not surprisingly, many occupiers aren't from the Six Nations Reserve, coming from as far away as Toronto.  In the background is the concept of band title, for within band lands there is no such thing as personal title to land in fee simple.  This is to prevent Indians from selling to whites, and the reserve gradually becoming owned by whites.  Hence, the only possible justification for a land claim is that the band still holds title, not some collection of individuals.

The basis of the latest dispute in Caledonia is that the Foxgate Development land belongs to another entity.  But who?  Does it belong to the Six Nations band, or to someone personally?  Those are the only two options.

Title to the land was surrendered by the Six Nations band in the 1830s.  Foxgate Developments, which acquired title in good faith, gave the Six Nations band cash and property elsewhere as “compensation,” which is another term for protection.  Six Nations got paid twice for the same piece of real estate.  The “our” in “our land” does not comprehend the Six Nations band.

It cannot comprehend any other band.  The Haldimand Tract was purchased from the Mississaugas in the 1780s, and they aren’t claiming it.  The group that is occupying it now is not a band, and even if they were, it never had title.  None of the individuals involved have ever had title or a claim to title.  So, the statement that this is our land rests on nothing but force.

The demonstrators are trashing the Six Nations’ claim to being a “nation.”  The elected band council has become farce.  A sign of sovereignty is control, and the council makes no effort to control its band members in the dispute.  Significantly, it is not condemning the occupation.  This is a sign of weakness.

Against rebellion both to the band and the Crown, there is nothing to do but smash it.  There's no fixing stupid.

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Electrostatic precipitators kill virus

Vincent J. Curtis

24 Oct 20

RE: Air quality key to gym patron protection.  Hamilton Spectator 24 Oct 20.

This letter by John Anderson demonstrates why central planning doesn’t work.  The planners lack sufficient knowledge to run everything.

Mr. Anderson explains why ventilation, which is essential to protecting gym patrons from the virus, won’t work in wintertime: the cold air of outside needs to be exchanged with the warm air inside, and the heating requirements for comfort are simply too great.  Anderson is mistaken in concept.

It is easy to imagine an electrostatic precipitator to filter the air of the gym.  Warm air from the gym is forced through the filter, the electrostatics remove and kill the virus, and the filtered air is returned to the gym without the need for heat.  With a little engineering, ductwork can be put in front of the exercise stations to grab the air exhausted by the patrons and direct it to the filter system.  A little more engineering can muffle the sound of the forced air circulation.

In a bar, a fume hood of sorts can be placed over a table, and the same idea of grabbing air, forcing it through an electrostatic precipitator, and returning it to the room without the need for heating or cooling is employed.  The only annoyance might be the sound of forced air circulation.

The knowledge for coping with the virus while carrying on normal business is out there.  But the central planners don’t know of it, and simply have too little experience with a free market to rely on it.

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School Board fires 200 teachers, hires consultant

Vincent J. Curtis

23 Oct 20

RE: Board Chair says governance 'rooted in oppressive structures.' 

RE: Public Board to surplus almost 200 teachers.  Hamilton Spectator 23 Oct 20

Hamilton’s Public School Board has lost its collective mind.  It certainly has lost its way.  After surplussing 200 teachers, the Board decided to hire a consultant to help them examine their navels.

The Board decided unanimously that their “governance models are rooted in historic colonial and oppressive structures.”  This phrasing hardly makes grammatical sense, never mind logical sense.  What makes the governance models of the Hamilton Board so radically different from all others that theirs is uniquely oppressive and colonial?  When did the Board discover that a hierarchy of authority is oppressive?  What makes Robert’s Rules of Order colonial?

The Board can’t put into a logical sentence the problem they want the consultant to examine, though I’m sure he’ll be happy to take their money.

This is not a good sign for parents.  Way too much Kool-Aid is served, and consumed, at Board meetings, and it seems Board members spend a lot of time chasing butterflies in the meeting room.  No wonder a call to order is regarded oppressive.

It’s not clear if the Board thinks that they are oppressed, or are the oppressors in the colonial nature of their governing model.  The easy way out is to blame the model rather than look in the mirror and see a colonizer.  Being a colonizer is wrong, but the consequences of admitting oneself to be a colonizer are personally inconvenient.  Best leave things vague.

The Board’s self-flagellation ought to worry parents.

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Good News on COVID Front

Vincent J. Curtis

22 Oct 20

There is good news to report on the pandemic front.  Cases in Ontario appear to be peaking, while hospitalization and ICU figures are starting to drop.  Daily death rates continue to be low and stable, at around five or six per day.

Comparing the shape and duration of the cases curve from the first wave, this second wave should be falling below two hundred cases per day by the end of November.  Hospitalizations, which are already low, won’t show much change.  Unless a third wave begins, the pandemic, as measured by cases, will be practically defunct by the end of the year.

The rise and fall of the second wave happened without strenuous intervention in the way of government lockdowns and in spite of masking mandates.  A lot of crow deserves to be eaten, but parceling out morsels can wait for another time.

The important point is, that the second wave is peaking, and unless there is a third wave, the pandemic by any measure, will be over by the end of the year.

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Norfolk Council asking bikers to steer clear of Port Dover

Vincent J. Curtis

21 Oct 20

Port Dover is a small town on the north shore of Lake Erie, and forms a part of the municipality of Haldeman-Norfolk.  A tradition grew up, and has been running for years, that bikers would gather in Port Dover on Friday the 13th, which will occur again in the month of November.  Important personages in Norflk county government think that is a bad idea.

The response to the pandemic around the world has been a calamitous failure of central planning.  The plans to discourage the informal gathering of bikers in Port Dover deprives individual grown-ups from making their own decisions and themselves balancing their own risks and rewards.

An expert is able to draw a reasonable line of caution that balances risks and rewards.  Any fool with power can say no, and often does.  Dr. Shanker Nesathurai, Norfolk Chief Medical Officer of Health could have simply reminded bikers to maintain social distancing, to wear N95 masks if distancing is impossible, or to keep wearing their helmets if these have face shields.  Instead, he strongly discouraged bikers from visiting Port Dover at all - and spending lots of money at local merchants.

Mayor Krystal Chopp spoke of means the municipality could do to make a biker visit unpleasant. 

If I were a Port Dover merchant, I’d deduct from my taxes the amount of revenue I lost due to the actions of Norfolk council.  I’d deny service to the Mayor, Dr. Nesthurai, and all other members of council that took money out of my pocket.  If the actions of council permanently broke the biker tradition, I’d sue the councilors personally for loss of business.

In a free and democratic society, we let grown-ups make their own decisions, letting them balance risk and reward.  Central planning and control is almost always a calamitous failure.

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Cancelling Hallowe'en

 

Vincent J. Curtis

20 Oct 20

The Ontario Chief Medical Officer of Health recommends the cancellation of traditional Hallowe'en dur to the pandemic.  Spinco is a ladies fitness club in Hamilton that was the locus of spreading of the virus despite taking all the recommended precautions.

Between the official recommendation to cancel Hallowe’en and the so-called superspreader event(s) at Spinco, you have a case to make that our alleged experts don’t know what they’re doing.

Hallowe’en is practiced almost entirely outdoors, in small groups, by a demographic that is known not to become sick with the virus and not to transmit the virus.  That’s the science.  Yet, the medicos paid by the province recommend Hallowe’en be cancelled.  Why?  Based on what science?  Experts aren’t paid to be excessively cautious.  Any fool, or newspaper editor, can say, “Do nothing! Take no risks at all!!”  Experts are paid to weigh risks, and to draw a reasonable line of caution.  Our so-called experts aren’t weighing risks, as economists do all the time.

Is there any other event than a “super-spreader” event?  The outbreak among Spinco clients is another example of our experts demonstrating they don’t know anything about industrial hygiene.  Industrial hygienists ensure that industrial environments are safe for workers.  One of the hazards common in industry is airborne dust and mists, and typically a combination of respirators and ventilation is employed to prevent these hazards from harming workers.  Since the virus is spread through the air, you would think serious ventilation is something they would think of for Spinco, but no.

The medical experts are at sea when it comes to understanding viral spread and containment.  We’re have enough of their trials and errors.  End centralized tyranny, and let the free market figure it out!

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Barrington is about science, not ideology

 Vincent J. Curtis

20 Oct 20

RE: It's all about politics.  Hamilton Spectator editorial of today's date.  The paper condemns the Great Barrington Declaration as ideological hogwash.  Based upon their their expertise in basket weaving, the editors choose discredited experts over good ones because what the discredited ones propose leads to the defeat of Donald Trump.

It’s all about beating Donald Trump in November, isn’t it?  End lockdowns, the economy revives, people feel better about themselves, and Donald Trump gets re-elected.  That’s the worry.

The story “There appears to be another crisis breaking” on p. A4 exposes that there have been more additional drug overdoses in Hamilton during the pandemic than COVID-19 cases.  This problem was attributed to the pandemic, but actually it’s due to the lockdown, the political response to the pandemic.  That the consequences of the lockdown are worse than the pandemic itself is the central holding of the Barrington Declaration, which the Spectator condemns.

The Spectator admits that Barrington is signed by credentialed experts, but dismisses their opinions as “crank” with the entire motivation being ideological, an assertion of libertarianism.  Credentialed experts sacrificed their expertise for the sake of a political ideology, that ideology being of the “far-right.”  That sounds familiar.  Left-wing projection, in fact.

Having admitted that such selling out is possible, that means that credentialed members of the deep state or committed “far-left” ideologues could be selling out for the sake of politics, the defeat of Donald Trump.  The editorial says the pandemic has been poorly managed in America; well Trump relies on Democrat governors and Democrat bureaucrats to manage the pandemic in detail.  Perhaps, they’re the ones deliberately screwing up for a political goal, one the Spectator supports, the defeat of Donald Trump.

The editorial also fails to understand herd immunity, but that’s for another day.

Barrington says nothing that hasn’t been said since April.

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Old Journo ignores current science

Vincent J. Curtis

19 Oct 20

RE: Second wave may prove harder to control than the first.  Hamilton Spectator of this date.

Geoffrey Stevens concludes his opinion with the statement: “If [the Trudeau government] can’t get the public on its side again, Wave Two could be long and deadly.”

The amount of information Stevens had to ignore to reach that conclusion is enormous.  As is plainly visible on the Ontario COVID-19 data page, the second wave is already larger than the first.  However, the hospitalizations and deaths, which tracked the number of cases in the first wave, are practically ignoring the cases data in the second.  If the second wave were the same as the first, Ontario should be reporting over ninety deaths per day, but in fact is reporting only five or six per day.  So, it simply isn’t going to be as deadly, and the demographic data explains why.

There is also no reason to believe the second wave will be longer than the first.  If you compare the pandemic curves from Sweden, which didn’t lock down, with those of Ontario, the durations of the first waves are the same, roughly three and a half months, lockdown or no lockdown.  (What “control?”)

The World Health Organization now opposes lockdowns, finally realizing that the health consequences of lockdowns are worse than the pandemic.  There’s a lot of crow to be eaten over lockdowns, but the important thing is not to make that mistake a second time.

Wave two is less deadly than the first, lockdowns don’t work, and will be resisted.

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Trudeau smears country he governs with charge of racism.

Vincent J. Curtis

17 Oct 20

 RE: Trudeau wants united anti-racism fight. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is once again shamelessly exploiting an incident to smear Canada with the accusation of racism.  In this case, it had to do with alleged racist comments against an aboriginal woman who died in a New Brunswick hospital.  Trudeau, in what amounts to high dudgeon for him, wants to eliminate racism from health care delivery in Canada. Below is a rebuttal.

The great American economist Thomas Sowell distinguished between racism and discrimination.  Racism is an idea that exists in people’s heads.  Racism isn’t measurable or even directly observable.  Discrimination, on the other hand, is expressed in overt acts that exist in objective reality.  Mr. Trudeau foolishly says he wants to eliminate racism in Canada.

The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms protects freedom of thought, belief, and expression.  Racism, being a system of beliefs, is legally protected, as are political expressions of those beliefs.  The reason Trudeau wants racism eliminated is only that that idea is unpopular.  The Indian Act is overtly racist and discriminatory, but Mr. Trudeau leaves it alone because it is popular.

I don’t understand why Mr. Trudeau insists that Canada is full of racism.  It’s the country he governs, and after five years of power those accusations begin to reflect on him.  But, I digress.

It isn’t racism Trudeau needs to fight, it is discrimination.  Discrimination is observable and measurable.  Discrimination in the delivery of health care lies within the powers of the provinces and Federal government to address.  To address discrimination, however, they need to name names and practices that are discriminatory.  But they won’t do that because too many important people are involved, and, on close examination, unjustified, systematic discrimination doesn’t occur.  Oh, you can call upon anecdotes, but anecdotes aren’t data.

Smearing Canada as a racist nation may gain Trudeau temporary popularity, but the long term consequences of that smear we can see in the United States.

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Marxist analysis can't explain COVID disparities

Vincent J. Curtis

17 Oct 20

RE: COVID burden mimics Code Red Results.  The Spectator is reverting to full People's Daily mode by publishing the opinion piece at reference on the front page, above the fold.  The piece was written by the usually reliable Steve Buist.  The reference to Code Red is to a series are articles published a decade ago that reported on the correlation of poverty, location of housing, and bad health effects.  The Buist opinion piece tries to extend the Code Red analysis to the COVID outbreak in Hamilton.  The result is a Marxist fallacy that collapses upon cursory examination.  Below is the rebuttal.

When the matter is statistics, the best and most meaningful results come from economists and mathematicians, who work with numbers a lot.  Whenever Arts majors play at statistics, the results are often tragic, or risible.  Such is the case with the article.  

These are the bald facts, as reported by the Province of Ontario.  Since the beginning of the pandemic to October 16, Hamilton Public Health Services has reported 1,475 cases, of which 1,248 are resolved, leaving 186 active cases.  There were 47 deaths.  Somehow, these numbers are being spun to fit a narrative that suffering was disproportionately experienced by the poor and the ‘racialized.’

The first question is, what suffering?  Hamilton’s population is over half a million, and 47 people died of the virus over a six month span.  Many of those occurred in the 80 + age demographic in LTC facilities, so where’s the possible connection between suffering and race, and suffering and poverty?  There isn’t enough suffering in the numbers to make the case.  The neglect and the racism simply isn't there.

Let’s carry the theory farther.  Yukon Territory, NWT, Nunavut, and PEI have had no deaths.  Newfoundland has 2, New Brunswick has 4, Saskatchewan has 25, and Manitoba has 38 deaths.  Nova Scotia, 65 deaths.  How does poverty and race cause these regions to have fewer deaths than Hamilton?  The north has a lot of ‘racialized’ people, so why aren’t there any deaths north of ‘60?

The relating of poverty and race to COVID suffering is a Marxist fantasy that collapses upon the most cursory examination.

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Are low income, racialized people really the hardest hit?

Vincent J. Curtis

16 Oct 20

The Hamilton Spectator of today's date ran a front page article whose headlined claimed that low income and racialized people were the "hardest hit" by COVID-19.  The story made reference to the "Social Determinants of Health," and that gave the propaganda game away.  That theory was dealt with previously on this pages.  Above that story was one announcing that the police were finally breaking up the homeless that had lain on Ferguson Ave. N. for months.

A satire of a New York Times headline ran: World Ending Tomorrow; Women, Minorities hardest hit.  The Spectator ran satire as a real headline!

Never mind that what “hardest hit” means is unclear.  Asymptomatic cases aren’t hit in any practical sense.  So, it is measured in hospitalizations and deaths?  Maybe, except that Province of Ontario doesn’t publish records of hospitalizations and deaths by race, income, housing, or employment.  It publishes data based on demographic, sex, and health care region.

If you look at that data, the hardest hit in terms of cases is the 20-29 demographic, while in terms of deaths, it is the 80-89 demographic.  Toronto region has by far the most cases and deaths.  There is no breakdown by race and income on the page.

Then we read of the “Social Determinants of Health” (SDOH), and all becomes clearer.  SDOH is a bit of Marxian analysis that purports to show disparities in suffering based on class.  SDOH theory was refuted here before, and the homeless camps story gives a practical demonstration of its falsity.  If any group was to be hard hit by Covid, it would be those in the homeless camps.  But in Hamilton, and miraculously everywhere else, Covid seems to have passed these camps by.  It was the Ladies of Spinco who gave us an example of what a statistical anomaly looks like.

The data alleged in the article is sourced mysteriously.  I say it’s made up by self-interested researchers or, at best, is anecdotal.

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Diversity gains you nothing

Vincent J. Curtis

15 Oct 20

A new member was added to the five member Hamilton Police Services Board.  The Spectator celebrated the change noting that the new member would bring diversity to the Board. (In respect of there being only five members, I was reminded of a conundrum from quantum mechanics and "mixed nuts."  You are given two nuts and told to mix them any way you want.  So it is with diversity on a five member Board.)

One of the unlearned lessons of the rioting in the United States this summer is that diversity brought nothing.  We saw how many of the police chiefs of the cities in which the rioting was the worst: Seattle, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Chicago, and Portland were Black, and some both Black and female.  The mayor of Chicago is a Black lesbian, and her chief is Black, and this did nothing to stop the looting in that city this summer, or reduce the notorious shooting and murder rates.

We saw white rioters demeaning Black police officers for being blue and not Black, and all this occurred in the most liberal and Democratic cities in America.  Even electing Barack Obama as President twice brought America no relief from racial tensions; in fact they got worse, as the Ferguson riots and the strife over the Zimmerman-Treyvon Martin killing testify.

The theory that diversity in authority will relieve tensions has been demonstrated to be false, and the theory itself stands as a practically disproven ideology.

Nothing matters more than competence in the job, and competence is colour-blind.  Nothing matters more than proper enforcement of the law without the acceptance of excuses.

If the argument is diversity for diversity’s sake, then the appointment of Mel Athulathmudali to the Police Services Board is saying that someone better for the job was passed over on account of their race.  All for the sake of a falsified ideology.

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Why garlic is better than wearing a mask

 Vincent J. Curtis

11 Oct 20

Wearing a necklace of garlic is better for preventing the spread of the virus than a mask is.  The garlic promotes social distancing while the mask does not.

Why is carrying a rabbit’s foot better than wearing a mask against COVID-19?  Because a rabbit’s foot brings you better luck.

(Going to church is better than wearing a mask because you have a better chance of being saved!)

All experts agree that social distancing helps prevent transmission of the virus from an infected person to one who is not.  Surgical and fashionable cloth masks cannot block a virus, for the filtration material is too coarse and the mask doesn’t form a perfect seal around the mouth and nose.

The masking fetish has gotten so crazy that some governments are recommending masking while you eat.  Yes, pull down mask, insert food, pull up mask, and chew.  That’s what recommended now in California.  All the mask touching defeats the purpose!  Joe Biden pulled his down so he could cough into his hand, pulled it up again, and then continued speaking to people who were a hundred feet away, outdoors! Where's the science in any of that?

You aren’t supposed to keep touching your mask.  If viruses are on it, they transfer to your hands and then onto your face.  The reason why experts were initially leery about masking the general public was because masks had to be used properly to be effective, and constantly touching them defeats whatever use they have.

Wearing a mask is like carrying a rabbit’s foot: it’s luck if they work.  Garlic is better: against viruses and vampires.

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California fires advance climate change

Vincent J. Curtis

11 Oct 20

Could there be anything more pathetic than a California environmentalist?  These people simultaneously believe in climate change and absolutely oppose forest management, because it might disturb habitat for worms and insects.

This year, all the dry kindling and leaves that were allowed to accumulate over the years in the California forests caught fire, and spread to dry and dead trees that lumber companies were forbidden to harvest.  The result was that over three million acres of forest were burnt, putting years’ worth of climate warming carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  Hundreds, if not thousands, of homes were destroyed in the fires.

Two years ago, insurance companies began advising those home owners that because the California government could not protect their homes from forest fires, the company was pulling out of the market and not renewing home insurance in those areas.  Those homes worth millions were burnt to the ground, uninsured.

All that simple-minded concern for the environment resulted in greater damage to the environment – by their lights – than if they had followed actual science.  And now their marvelous, uninsured homes are destroyed as well.  You can't say they weren't warned.

Environmentalism in California caused the production of more carbon dioxide in one year than five years’ worth of savings by driving electric cars.  And the confused blame climate change for the fires!

You can’t help but laugh.

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Ford admits Sweden, Florida got pandemic right

Vincent J. Curtis

10 Oct 20

Premier Doug Ford is now admitting that Sweden got it right.  The lockdown was a mistake, and we’re not going back to it.  However, Ford and his medical experts are too invested in lockdowns that they dare not admit they’re moving to the Swedish model.

Sweden and the State of Florida were derided by the liberal media for not locking down during the first wave of the pandemic.  Sweden, at least, is now getting credit for their handling of their crisis, not locking down, wrecking their economy and ruining national finances.  Florida governor Rick DeSantis is a Republican and a Trump acolyte, and he will never get credit from the New York Times for his deft handling of the crisis in Florida as Sweden now is.

The second wave of the pandemic in Ontario is already bigger than the first, and still hasn’t crested.  Panic is the watchword of the day.  The key, however, is that Premier Ford isn’t returning to the lockdown measures of March through July.  He is hurting some, and warning everyone to within an inch of their lives, because not to would give the game away.  He isn’t closing schools, and outdoor parks and  activities.  There is no controlling a virus as contagious as this one, and masking proved to be merely a talisman, a comfort toy, that gave a false sense of security.

Not all is bleak.  The people becoming cases now are from the 20-49 demographics, and they handle the virus easily.  Letting them become cases means the virus runs short of people to infect quicker without affecting the health care system one iota.  Stopping the spread is a hopeless cause, and it is better to get through this crisis quickly rather than slowly.

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Poets justify banning of single-use plastics

Vincent J. Curtis

9 Oct 20

RE: ban on plastic grocery bags long overdue.  People's Daily editorial of this date.

Whenever poetry majors write about scientific matters, the results are usually tragic - but amusing.  Unable to marshal complex reasoning, they quickly descend into moral argument.  Dogmatically asserting they are moral, counterarguments must be the work of the devil.

So it is with the long overdue ban on plastic bags.  This was supposed to happen earlier this year, then the pandemic broke out.  The superior hygiene of plastic over re-usable cloth bags became so important that banning plastic had to wait.  In an admission that the pandemic is over, the ban is now back on.

What are the reasons for banning these plastics?  Being hard to re-cycle, they end up in “the environment.”  Greenpeace says this isn’t enough.  Canadians need to break their “addiction” to plastic.  This one is laughable: plastics originate as fossil fuels and contribute to climate change.  Then, when incinerated, they pollute the air we breathe (a double whammy!).  A doozey: They contaminate the soil that grows the food we eat. (Hint: soil doesn’t grow food, farmers do, and they don’t sow their land with plastic.)  Finally, Canadians toss away 3 million tons of the stuff every year.

I’d expect this level of work from a grade sixer.

Hamilton used to produce 12 million tons of steel a year, and even accounting for differences in density, that’s a bigger volume of steel that entered “the environment” than plastic thrown away today.

Canada has more than enough space to landfill all our municipal waste.  You can recycle these plastics if you need to by burning them.  The energy of combustion can generate electricity, and the carbon and hydrogen in the plastic get returned to the atmosphere whence they originated, to be recycled as plant food, again.

The banning of plastics is the federal government attacking Alberta’s major industry to the favor on Ontario’s paper mills.  (They cut down trees to make paper, you understand.) And another attack on restaurants that can’t use insulating Styrofoam for take-out orders.

Environmentalists are once again caught between their fallacies and their obsessions, and can’t reason their way out of a paper, or a plastic, bag.

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Our medical experts can't read!

Vincent J. Curtis

8 Oct 20

Isn’t there anybody in authority who can read a goddamn chart?  Doctors, politicians, even journalists?

We have the Ontario Hospital Association warning that the health care system would be quickly overwhelmed by a second wave.  “There is enormous growing risk” they say, and “Much more effective health care measures are needed,” which is code for more lockdowns.

Hamilton is hiring 75 more support staff to cope with another public health emergency.  But what are the facts?

Hamilton has precisely five people hospitalized for COVID-19.  But the most important data which falsifies all the fears is available on Ontario’s COVID-19 data page.

Ontario is already well into the second wave of cases.  The second wave is already larger than the first, and the case numbers are still climbing.  But hospitalizations and deaths remain stubbornly low.  Both graphs of hospitalizations and deaths have been flat and low, just above zero, since the middle of July.  The second wave of cases, unlike the first, is not producing a corresponding number of hospitalizations and deaths.  The second wave is a bust.

The cases curve isn’t being flattened; it’s still rising.  But hospitalizations and deaths are already flat and low.  There is no justification on the basis of the data for panic.  There is no justification for lockdown measures.  The data and the science doesn’t support it.  The claim that hospitalizations are up “sharply” is deceptive.  Going from 137 to 206 hospitalizations is nothing compared to the 1027 in mid-April.  There are over 250 hospitals in Ontario, with a population of 14.6 million people, fewer than one case per hospital.

By any measure, the important numbers of the second wave are trivial compared to the first, and worries about a collapse of the health care system, its need for more support, and a re-imposition of lockdown are vastly overblown.

We’re supposed to believe in the science and the data, well there it is and they both say we care start moving on.

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Helping Supremacists feel superior

Vincent J. Curtis 

6 Oct 20

RE: Indigenous People – Connected to the Land. Hamilton Spectator of this date.  Written by Beverley O'Neil, and indigenous person, writer, and advocate.

What exactly is ‘Indigenous’?  It’s a slippery idea, and author Beverly O’Neil slipped on it.

She says, “Indigenous people worldwide are connected to the land.”   And “Everything that involved Indigenous cultural activities…relates to Mother Earth.”

What she says is incoherent.  We’re all indigenous to the planet earth.  And it can’t be that Indigenous people worldwide are both connected and not connected to the land.  The indigenous to Europe imports have a more sophisticated sense of the world and reject the idea of a “Mother Earth,” except as romantic poetry.  

O’Neil says: “Canada’s civil law system, which is rooted in British common law traditions, …such laws are not based on Indigenous values, perspectives, and rights and title.”

Indigenous to Britain certainly do have values and perspectives that are different from Indigenous to America.  O’Neil switches unconsciously to distinguish between Indian and European, implying Indians actually had a concept of rights and title that was merely different from British common law.

Famously, this isn’t so.  Indians had no concept of title or rights, save that of conquest.  It was British common law that brought sophisticated ideas of title and rights to North America.  This explains why the band (that ‘Nation’ idea – that’s European too.) holds title to the reserve, but individual Indians do not hold title to individual plots of land on the reserve.  This reflects the traditional Indian idea of land possession, but there is another reason.  An individual could sell his plot on the reserve to a white person, and before long the reserve is owned by white people.

O’Neil employs poetic metaphors to offer romantic visions of idyllic Indian life before the Indigenous of Britain and France came here.  Unsophisticated poetic metaphors, which are in no way comparable to Western philosophy, simply fail to cope with hard reality.  O’Neil offers a romantic dream world that never existed and does not now exist.

Works like those of O’Neil, offered seriously, is one reason why white supremacists feel so superior.

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Virus transmitted as dust: CDC finally catching on

Vincent J. Curtis

5 Oct 20

 https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-coronavirus-guidance-airborne-transmission#

This just released by the CDC: the virus can be transmitted as an airborne dust.

Readers will recall my piece of August 1, 2020, headlined "The futility of masking" in which I declare that the virus must be transmitted primarily as a dust, and that mandated masks were useless against dust.  Unless the mask in question was an N-95 respirator-mask or stronger, like a rubberized canister style respirator-mask, masking was practically useless.  Several subsequent articles predicated criticisms of masking on the grounds that they were ineffective against airborne dust, but could give people a false sense of security.

That virus had to be transmitted as a dust wasn't hard to figure out.  The old theory was that the virus was transmitted in the droplets of mist by a person sneezing or coughing.  But it was obvious that not enough people were sneezing on each other to account for all the infections.

Now, a little point from physical chemistry.  The vapor pressure over a sharply curved surface is much higher than over a flat surface, part of the phenomenon of surface tension.  The high vapor pressure means that the liquid will evaporate much quicker, provided the atmosphere is not saturated with water vapor.  These facts explains why mists over boiling water and from human breath in cold temperatures disappear so quickly.

Well, what happens to a virus in a tiny droplet of sneeze?  The water quickly evaporates, and the poor virus is left there, naked and alone, suspended in the air.  The virus doesn't die immediately, it may take several hours to die, and so can infect a person if it gets inside them.  Meanwhile, the virus can drift in the air, or settle onto a surface, only to be swept up into the air again by air currents.  The settling of active virus is the reason why we're supposed to clean surfaces.

Anyhow, physical chemistry is not taught in biochem, or to medical students, obviously.  Slowly, the medical community found by their own methods that the virus had to be transmissible as a dry dust.

Now, let's see if they can put two and two together and realize that the masking mandate is practically useless, if not worse than useless.  Their reputations may be too heavily invested to change course on masking, however.  They may also understand that there aren't enough N-95 masks to go around and continue to advise wearing useless masks, like some kind of comfort toy, or a talisman.

Let's see what develops.

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Why are we stopping the spread, again?

Vincent J. Curtis

5 Oct 20

This pandemic panic is demonstrating the myopia of experts.  Even at this stage of the game, we have experts calling for a renewal of lockdown measures.  Nobody is asking them, why?

The reason for the lockdown in March was to “flatten the curve.”  If you look at the charts on Ontario’s COVID-19 data page, you’ll see the characteristic curves of a pandemic: a sharp rise in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths followed by a nearly as rapid drop off with a long, flat tail just above the zero line.  In short, nothing was flattened, and the measures did little or nothing to affect the course of the pandemic.

No matter, by mid-July all indicators showed that wave of the virus had passed.  Then came the wave of masking by-laws, which I maintain gave people a false sense of security.  A second wave of cases began in mid-August, and the charts show the second wave is bigger than the first.  That is, in terms of “cases.”  Oddly, the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths remain stubbornly low; they aren’t rising in concert with “cases.”

The reason for this in part is that the people becoming “cases” are those in the 20-49 demographics, who handle the virus easily.  So why are the usual “experts” calling for a renewed lockdown?  They can’t say to “flatten the curve,” the curve being already flat and nearly zero.  Saying to slow the spread raises more questions, the first being why?  Why not get this over with quickly rather than slowly?

The other question is, what makes them think a second lockdown will work any better than the first?  They can’t point to a single feature of the curves that show the lockdown achieved anything.

The medical experts are out of excuses.  Their myopia is obvious.  It’s now time for Ontario to lift itself out of the doldrums and get moving again.

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Ragging on Dr. Paul Alexander and McMaster University

Vincent J. Curtis

4 Oct 20

RE: McMaster Prof Politically Interfered: Congress finds.  Hamilton Spectator 3 Oct 20.

I find it incredible that the Spectator would continue to hound Dr. Paul Alexander and McMaster University.  Alexander used to work at Mac, but as Mac has patiently explained repeatedly he no longer works there and simply isn’t a ‘McMaster Prof.’

It is also incredible that the Spec would regurgitate what a Democrat-led House committee says about him.  Dr. Alexander is as, or more qualified than any of the people at CDC to editorialize about health data.  He has written over sixty peer-reviewed relevant papers, according to the Spec’s own reporting, and no doubt has been a peer-reviewer himself.

He was hired by the political side of the Administration because of his expertise.  Deep staters within the CDC were using their reports to take shots at President Trump, Alexander spotted the unsupportable editorializing, and the little munchkins who didn’t like being peer-reviewed complained to their friends in Congress and the press.

What did a Democrat committee find?  The nub of the accusations is that he wrote allegedly nasty emails to important personages in the CDC who allegedly published “accurate information.”  The accurate part is deceptive editorializing.  In another case, he is said to be 'muzzling' Dr. Fauci for making sure Fauci emphasized that masks are for teachers, not students.

Ugly, Washington, Democrat-inspired resist-Trump politics is evident in the accusations, especially when you grasp Alexander’s expertise.  I don’t understand why the Spectator has to be purblind to the politics, and simply regurgitate Democrat talking points.

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Has Doug Ford Got the Measure of his Doctors?

Vincent J. Curtis

4 Oct 20

Just about everyone but the politicians and the media have figured out that the public health doctors were bluffing all along.  They said they had the answer to the pandemic, and they didn’t.  Now, Premier Doug Ford is resisting the extreme measures demanded by the same professionals who failed in the past.  Maybe he’s figured it out too.

The idea of quarantining the entire body of healthy people to flatten the curve, to slow the spread, of the virus was ill-conceived, but tried anyway.  The graphs of case numbers, hospitalizations and deaths show the characteristic curves of a pandemic allowed to run its course without restriction, including the development of heard immunity.  The lockdown proved a massive failure.

A second wave of infections is now evident in the “cases” graph despite the fact that strong restrictions remain in place.  Masks were supposed to be the talisman that warded off a second wave like wearing a necklace of garlic is supposed to ward off vampires. But masks didn’t work either.  Meanwhile, people grew restless under the never-ending restrictions, and outright defiance of authority was becoming more commonplace.  Ford began to realize he was losing his hold on public discipline. Restrictions inspired defiance.  Insults and shaming weren’t working anymore, and the legality of fines probably couldn’t stand a court challenge in view of Charter rights.  He needs to be careful.

The second wave is now bigger than the first.  But a funny thing happened on the way to the cemetery.  Hospitalizations and deaths remain stubbornly low, and a glance at the demographics explains why.  Deaths don’t begin until the 50-59 demographic, and don’t become significant as a proportion of cases until the 80-89 demographic.  The people becoming cases now are in the 20-49 demographics, and these show no deaths at all.

The doctors are reading the same charts I am, and they’re calling for a renewed lockdown.  Why?  Hospitalizations and deaths are negligible; there’s no “flattening the curve”, the previous justification. Why close more of the economy, or the raise the pressure on people by depriving them of the joy of society and live amusement?  The media, which seems weirdly supportive of social control, have never demanded – demanded -the public health doctors explain in detail how and what their measures are supposed to achieve.  Give us the math to show the difference between gathers of ten and fifty! Do they realize that 99.9 + percent of the people are not “unresolved cases?”  They’ve never been asked for a cost-benefit analysis.  Maybe Ford has asked, privately, and was shaken by the lack of rigor in the reply.

Famously, President Trump caught the virus.  Nobody got near Trump without testing, yet he caught it anyway.  The best laid plans of mice and men etc., so what’s to say another set of lockdown measures will stop anything? Explain.

While people over 70 remain at higher risk, the people becoming cases now are at very low risk.  If the pandemic were simply allowed to rip, the effect would almost be invisible and it would deepen an already evident herd immunity.

Ford isn’t jumping to the demands of the public health doctors.  Their failed methods may have aroused a distrust in their advice within Ford.  He realizes the young people are quaking in rebellion, and they are able to defy him at no risk to their health.  Insults, shaming, and dire warnings no longer keep them in line.

If Ford is to maintain public respect, he needs to ease up and ignore the doctors.  He may be realizing this.

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Torstar Opinion: He had it coming

Vincent J. Curtis

3 Oct 20

The Spectator embarrassed itself on Saturday by running an opinion piece from Torstar disguised as a news article on page 1.  The article was a hate-filled rant against President Trump for not submitting to the preferred left-wing narrative.  That narrative would have him stop campaigning and allow Joe Biden to drift across the finish line unopposed.

Trump’s signature campaign technique is the mass rally.  Between 20,000 and 40,000 people routinely attend a Trump rally outdoors at an airport.  Airports were adopted in part because the Democrat governors of swing states use lockdown measures to inhibit large Trump rallies, but do nothing to stop demonstrations and rioting by left wing groups like Antifa and BLM.  These latter groups aren’t Trump supporters.

A Biden rally is embarrassing.  He speaks for about twenty minutes off a teleprompter into a camera with his press entourage and a few campaign workers as a live audience.

The opinion writer reviles Trump because he refuses to lose.  Trump rejects the narrative that America should remain in the fetal position until after Election Day.  It is only after Trump loses the election that America can begin economic recovery.

Contempt is disguised as concern for the health of Americans, whom he regards as children that can’t be trusted making their own decisions.  When 35,000 deplorables show up unmasked and crowd together to cheer their champion, what more evidence do you need to prove they can’t be trusted to do the right thing?

The rooting interest in the bile-filled piece is obvious, and this is why Trump always elicits Bronx cheers whenever he talks about the Fake News.

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Why a thousand cases a day is nothing to worry about

Vincent J. Curtis

1 Oct 20

At the rate of a thousand cases a day, it will only take the virus forty years to infect all 14.6 million Ontarians.  And it is wrongly maintained that getting infected is always a bad thing.

Actually, getting infected is not always bad: it depends on the initial dose and the strength of the person’s immune system.  There’s a big difference between getting infected with a thousand viruses all at once and a million all at once.  Hint: it takes ten generations of duplication for the load of a thousand viruses to become a load of a million.  In the time it takes for the virus to pass through ten generations of duplication, the body’s immune system has time to detect and react without having to go into full fighting mode, producing symptoms such as fever.

In both cases, a person would test positive for the virus, but a million is more positive than a thousand.  In this example, getting “insulted” with a thousand produces an effect similar to a vaccination.  Getting a low dose of the virus that you can fight off easily is a relative good thing.

What are we seeing in this “second wave?”  Young people with strong immune systems are developing immunity as a result of doses of virus they can easily handle.  “Cases” are going up, but hospitalizations and deaths are not.

What we need is more social interaction, not less.  The virus is around, but isn’t highly concentrated.  We can take advantage of that.

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