Time to End House Arrest?

Vincent J. Curtis

26 Jan 21 

The second wave of COVID has crested and the decline has begun.  And it isn’t a slow decline.  It’s time for Premier Ford to declare victory and get his boot off the neck of Ontarians.

Ford put Ontario into a four week “temporary, one-time” shutdown beginning December 26, when daily case numbers were starting to exceed 2000 per day.  As forecasted here, the shutdown would see a sharp rise in case numbers, followed by a sharp drop off as the fire created by the shutdown ran out of fuel.  On January 26, Ontario had several days in a row of sub-2000 case numbers, and the graph of case numbers clearly show a peak.

On January 12, Ford made a liar of himself by announcing a thirty day period of house arrest for the province.  The “knock your socks off” modelling by his luckless medical advisers showed as many as 20,000 cases per day by February 14^th.  The model was obsolete before it was presented as case numbers began dropping the weekend before the announcement of provincial house arrest on the basis of the modelling.  This was the second time the modellers were completely wrong, the first being November 12 when they forecasted 6500 cases per day by December 15, and were off by a factor of three.

Ontario no longer publishes hospitalization, ICU and “on ventilator” statistics, which means those numbers are embarrassing to the modellers, and explodes the case for the shutdown and house arrest.

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