Vincent J. Curtis
5 Jan 21
RE: COVID-19 shows no sign of peaking in Hamilton. Hannon Spectator, Page 1 story of today.
Readers of this blog will know that I made very specific warnings, starting on December 17th, that another lockdown in Ontario would only increase the number of cases. And that is how it is turning out. I gave a mechanism for how lockdowns increase case numbers, and have since found a science author with a similar thesis.
William M. Briggs holds a Ph.D. in Mathematical Statistics and was formerly a professor at the Cornell Medical School. On December 29th, he wrote in his blog an article entitled, “Why lockdowns spread bugs faster than liberty. Coronavirus Update XLVI.” He observed three significant things. First, lockdowns, as distinct from quarantines, force people to congregate. Second, something like a lockdown occurs every winter when cold weather keeps people indoors and congregated, and these are known periods of high sickness transmission. Finally, he observed that lockdowns are ineffective against extremely high transmissibility diseases..
When I called for Premier Ford to add real mathematicians and economists to his advisory team, this is the kind of advice I expected he would hear. His doctor advisors are not experts in the math they think they are applying correctly, and are offering defective advice with a false sense of confidence
Criticisms that cases continue to rise because of scofflaws is absolutely without foundation.
Eventually, the fire will burn all the wood
available to it, and run out of fuel.
The same will happen with the current wave, lockdown or not.
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