Georgia Senate Runoff: what it tells us

Vincent J. Curtis 

7 Jan 21

The Georgia Senate runoff underscores the existence of funny business in the 2020 general election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in that state.  Since this analysis is data driven, let’s put the figures out there:

Trump                                     Perdue                                     Loeffler 

2,461,837                                2,462,617 (General)

                                                2,204,574 (Runoff)                 2,185,674 (Special)

 

 Biden                                      Ossoff                                     Warnock

2,474,507                                2,374,519 (General)               

                                                2,241,340 (Runoff)                 2,260,296 (Special)

In my earlier piece on “Weird Voting in Georgia” I said that on the basis of previous patterns and population growth, the generic Republican presidential candidate should get around 2,1 million votes, while the generic Democrat candidate should get around 1.9 million.  As we see, Trump increased his vote total by 360,000, while Joe Biden increased the Democrat total by an astonishing 600,000.

In the Senatorial general election, Perdue did slightly better than Trump, besting him by 780 votes.  Clearly, practically every Trump voter also voted for Perdue.  On the Democrat side, Biden bested Ossoff by almost 100,000 votes.  Clearly, a lot of Democrats who voted for Biden did not also vote for Ossoff in the general election.  Ossoff lost to Perdue in the general election, but because Perdue did not obtain the required 50+ % of the total vote, a runoff was declared between only Perdue and Ossoff.

The runoff was highly contested, and literally hundreds of millions of dollars was spent on the two senate races.  Control of the senate was in play, and big Democrat donors from Silicon Valley wanted to cement complete Democrat control of the federal government by winning these two races.

Nevertheless, despite all the hype and national attention, the vote totals fell from 2020 general election heights.  Perdue’s vote tally fell by nearly 260,000 votes, while Ossoff’s fell by about 133,000.  Because Ossoff’s vote fell by much less than Perdue’s, Ossoff squeaked by Perdue in the runoff to win the seat.  Interestingly, Perdue’s tally (as well as Loeffler’s) closely approximates the expected generic Republican vote total.

In the special election between Loeffler and Warnock, Warnock prevailed more easily than Ossoff did.  Warnock pulled in 19,000 more votes thanOssoff, while Loeffler pulled in 20,000 fewer votes than Perdue did.

The Ossoff and Warnock results of 2021 reflect the true, solid Democrat vote in the state, that being 2.25 million; and Perdue and Loeffler the true, solid Republican vote at 2.20 million  So, where did Biden find 220,000 votes more than the generic Democrat base?  Biden campaigned to used car lots with paid campaign staff scattered throughout to make it sound on camera like a real crowd.  Trump spoke to 35,000 people at a time in Georgia in the general, and to 25,000 people twice for Perdue and Loeffler for the runoff and special.  Enthusiasm for Biden does not explain the 220,000 votes that Joe got over other Democrats; and the 100,000 vote difference between Biden and Ossoff in the general looks especially peculiar.

I can understand the fall-off in enthusiasm among demoralized Republicans after the 2020 election, and the retention of enthusiasm among triumphant Democrats looking at the prospect of complete control of the government in Washington if both Ossoff and Warnock won their Senate races.  Trump is in a league of his own when it comes to voter enthusiasm.  So, where did Biden’s mysterious 100,000 excess over Ossoff come from?  It wasn’t due to enthusiasm for Biden.  Were there that many ballots with only Biden’s name on it?

The results of the 2021 Georgia runoff and special elections makes the result of 2020 look even weirder.

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