Saturday, January 9, 2021

Rotting fish heads, lousy models, and horse manure.

Vincent J. Curtis

9 Jan 21

The spate of discoveries that insiders, both political and medical, have not been following the spirit of the shutdown has caused outrage.  One law for thee, and another for me, they seem to be saying.  But they’re saying something else: that the shutdown is horse manure.

The professionals and the insiders understand the statistics, and that’s why they’re taking trips abroad.  They also understand that the statements intended to keep the public in a panic are horse manure.

Take for instance the statement from Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario Associate Medical Officer of Health, who said, “We’re in a very serious situation…We don’t want ICUs overwhelmed.”  As of April 30, 2020, Ontario had 3,504 ICU beds, of which 2,811 were equipped with ventilators.  On January 9, 2021, Ontario reported 362 COVID cases in ICU, of which 244 were on ventilator.  That’s roughly ten percent utilization.  Look carefully at what Dr. Yaffe said; both sentences are true insofar as one expresses an opinion and the other a wish, but they aren’t logically related to each other - though meant to imply a connection by juxtaposition.

Then Doug Ford says, “When you see the modelling, you’ll fall off your chair.”  The last model was released November 12, and forecasted a five percent per day rate of growth, with 6500 cases per day expected by December 15.  That proved laughably false, and not one day was the forecast even close.  So why should we have confidence that these next models are any better?  Crickets from both a compliant media and from Premier Ford. 

The insiders know that the people at the top are out of their depth.  That’s why some are taking vacation.

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