The Signs of Fraud

Vincent J. Curtis

15 Dec 20

The 2020 presidential election produced many accusations of voter fraud.  The purpose of this brief study is to show some statistical anomalies that would give rise to such accusations.

Two of the major states that support Democratic candidates for president are New York and California.  Both states produce reliably large majorities for the Democratic candidate, and, in fact, delivered the plurality by which the Democratic candidates in 2016 and 2020, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, won the popular vote nation-wide.  There would be no reason to employ ballot box stuffing for either state to produce anything but a solid majority to the Democratic contender.  Nevertheless, for this reason, statistical anomalies stand out better without castings doubt upon who actually won the states.

Both California and New York are in population decline.  Both states have been under Democrat rule for more than a decade.  California’s policies have driving out its middle class over the last ten years, while New York City under Mayor Bill De Blasio has been driving out its well-to-do, particularly during the pandemic.  In fact, New York City has been thought to have lost 1.5 of its 8.5 million inhabitant since April of this year.

A reasonable conclusion that the vote totals in both states should be stagnant or on the decline generally, and there is reason the Democrat vote not to increase by much.

In 2008, Barack Obama was the Democrat standard-bearer.  He was new, relatively unknown, charismatic, and Black.  Being Black, his election promised to put American’s history of racism behind it.  Electing a Black man president would demonstrate that racism was effectively dead in America.  There was plenty of reason among progressives and independents to come out and vote for him and against the Republican candidate, John McCain.  While McCain was a war hero, he was also an old, white man, not noted to be especially conservative, and his health was questioned.

The results of the 2008 election in both states are produced in the table below.  Obama, as expected, won convincingly in both states.

In 2012, Obama ran against Mitt Romney.  This time, Obama was better known, less liked, and tarnished by his four years in office.  His first term had not been especially good for American prosperity, and there was doubt he would be re-elected.  American history is littered with presidents who did worse in their second election than in their first, and the results of 2012 demonstrate Obama’s declining appeal.

California     2008     2012     2016     2020

Democrat 8,274,473 6,493,424 8,753,788 11,098,676

Republican 5,011,781 4,202,127 4,483,810 5,994,674

New York     2008     2012     2016     2020

Democrat 4,804,945 3,875,826 4,556,124 5,004,506

Republican 2,752,771 2,226,637 2,819,534 3,171,289

Obama’s vote total in California and New York showed declines.  Romney had his issues also, and the Republican totals declined too.

The 2016 election had Democrat Hillary Clinton contending against New York developer Donald Trump.  If elected, the progressive Clinton would have been the first woman president in American history.  Trump was considered an off-the-wall candidate by many, and no one expected his election.  Clinton got slightly more votes in California in 2016 than Obama did in 2008, but not by much; and she split the difference between what Obama got in New York in 2008 and 2012.  Trump did hardly better in New York than the previous Republicans did in 2008 and 2012, and did worse in California than McCain did in 2008, and fared only slightly better than Romney did in 2012.

The results of 2020 is where the numbers get weird.  Trump did decidedly better in both California and New York in 2020 than he did in 2016.  He got nearly a million more votes in California than McCain’s high water mark of 2008; and he surpassed his previous New York vote by ten percent.  Nation-wide Trump increased his vote total from 60 million in 2016 to nearly 75 million in 2020.

However, Joe Biden wildly surpassed previous Democrat votes.  He surpassed Obama’s 2008 result in California by 34 percent, and in New York by 4 percent.  Biden bested Hillary in California by 27 percent and in New York by 10 percent.  While Trump increased his vote totals in both states, Biden increased the Democrat total by even more, both relatively and absolutely.

Biden’s totals are anomalously large, and they aren’t explained by his campaign or by him as the candidate.  He hardly campaigned.  He is the epitome of the old, sickly, establishment white man.  Yet he did better by any measure among the progressive electorates than either of the transformative progressive candidates, Obama and Clinton.  This, in states with declining populations, and when his opponent was increasing his vote totals quite dramatically also.

I get than Trump can produce as much adverse reaction as he gets positive, but  why would so much more of the Democrat base come out for Biden when they were indifferent to Obama and Clinton previously?  Mere hostility to Trump doesn’t seem to explain it.  Being the not-Trump could be a winner if Trump’s vote declined, but it didn’t; it grew dramatically.  California and New York have declining populations and have cause to be distrustful of the Democrat candidate this time around.

Regardless of the merits of the claims of voter fraud, the numbers for Biden are anomalous.  The anomalies cry out for an explanation, and until a plausible explanation is forthcoming, the belief of wide-spread voter fraud will persist among Trump supporters, 75 million strong.

The wide-spread suspicion of illegitimacy is not good for the incoming Administration.

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Vincent J. Curtis is a retired research scientist and occasional free-lance writer.