Trump Hits Winning Stride

Vincent J. Curtis

14 Sept 2016

Since the addition of Kellyanne Conway and Steve Bannon to the leadership of the Trump Campaign, and with help perhaps from departed Fox News Chief Roger Ailes, Donald Trump seems to have hit a winning stride.  The turnaround began with his meeting with the president of Mexico, Enrique Pena Nieto, in Mexico City, with whom carried off a very presidential looking diplomatic coup.

He followed it up with a strong performance later in the day in Phoenix, Arizona, in which he outlined his border-wall – immigration policy.  Some say that he was too strong in his performance, to the point where a bombastic image ruined the visuals of the meeting in Mexico.  However, no one today is questioning Trump’s stamina or health after watching his hour and a quarter of full throated “bombast.”

Since then, Trump has been meeting with audiences of less than 15,000 at a time, and has adjusted his presentation accordingly.  He now sounds quieter and looks more measured as he delivers prepared remarks.  Though he departs occasionally from the script, the effect generally enlivens the experience.  With practice, Trump is getting better at delivering prepared remarks with verve, and his improving presentation delivers better TV visuals.  He still looks powerful and concerned, but the perception of out-of-control anger is gone.

Since Trump wants to win, he will stick to what is working – until it doesn’t.  And since his campaign has turned in the winning direction, those in the commentariat who are waiting for Trump to revert to undisciplined bombast will be waiting until election night.

The results are showing up in the polls.  Although the race was tightening, until the last week or so that tightening was due to slippage in Hillary’s poll numbers.  The extent of her deceit and the unmistakable whiff of corruption became unavoidable, and when she suffered a physical collapse at the 9/11 memorial whatever her campaign may have been about was buried under an avalanche of bad news.  But the latest poll numbers are showing Trump rising above the 40 percent altitude, which seemed to be his ceiling.  Between Hillary’s fall and Trump’s turnaround, polls are now showing Trump with a slight but growing lead.

Two factors are going to play out in the polls over the next couple of weeks.  The first two are Hillary’s questionable health and the deceit engaged in by her campaign concerning her health.  Her campaign is burning up whatever credibility it has left for truth-telling.  And failure to tell the truth is Hillary’s principle negative for the voters.

Then there is the “basket of deplorables” remarks.  These were prepared and calculated and repeated.  Although these were made to gin up Hillary’s supporters, they will likely have a greater motivational effect among the scores of millions of Americans who support Trump.  Hillary insulted voters, personally; she invited others to look down their noses at a large number of voters, with no respect at all for honest differences of opinion.  Trump’s weakness was that he was not a nice person, and Hillary’s remarks played into that.  But in doing so, Hillary demonstrated that she is not nice either.

The continuing revelations of dishonesty and ill-health with continue to weigh on Hillary’s poll numbers.  But Trump yesterday pulled a rabbit out of the hat.  Trump announced that as part of his policy platform, he was calling for six weeks paid maternity leave, and was doing so at the instigation of his daughter, Ivanka.

With that announcement, Trump established a number of things that can only help his image with certain portions of the electorate.  He cannot be branded as a harsh, right-wing conservative, because the policy is the opposite of harsh and opposite of conservative.  Secondly, the policy itself is aimed at helping suburbanite women who need to work to help keep a nice roof over their family’s head.  Lastly, since this was done at Ivanka’s instigation, it blasts the notion that Trump is anti-woman or that he disrespects women.  Trump is putting out the policy because his own daughter says it is the right thing to do, and he respects highly the advice he receives from his daughter.

When you combine this with his outreach to the black community, his reserve in wishing Hillary good health, suddenly you have a candidate who is strong, sympathetic, reachable, and concerned for all of the electorate, not just his “base.”  You have a real uniter, not someone who dishonestly sloganizes about unity.

There is now less than two months left in the campaign, and all the debates.  Respected political scientist Larry Sabato thinks the election is already decided in favor of Hillary, and there are not enough undecideds left to swing the election Trump’s way.  But with national polls now showing a Trump lead and lots of time to increase that lead, you have to wonder if some of the absolute Hillary supporters aren’t going to sit this one out.  They can’t bring themselves to vote for Trump, but aren’t going to obstruct his victory either.

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