Poor Kelly Ayotte

Vincent J. Curtis

31 Aug 2016

Poor Kelly Ayotte.  Kelly Ayotte is the Republican senator from New Hampshire, first elected in the TEA-party wave of 2010.  Upon election, she immediately allied herself with Republican senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC).  Previous to her election as senator, she was the Attorney-General of the State of New Hampshire.

Ayotte, along with Senators Mark Kirk (R-IL), Rob Portman (R-OH), Marco Rubio (R-FL), and John McCain himself, are thought to be in electoral trouble this season, and if the Republicans lose four senate seats, they would lose control of the senate in the event of a win by Hillary Clinton.  Holding only fifty seats, the Democrats would control the senate in virtue of the tie-breaking vote held by the putative Democrat Vice-President, Tim Kaine.

Republicans are hoping to pick up the senate seat being vacated by present Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).  That win would give Republicans fifty-one seats after the loss of four, and control of the senate withal.

One of the reasons for Republican establishment's concern about the Trump campaign is that if Trump loses too badly, then it is likely that Republicans will lose control of the Senate also.  And rather than get behind Trump four-square, the Republican establishment is busy complaining about Trump and his potential lack of electoral coattails.  They are preparing to blame their loss of the senate on Donald Trump.

Over the last few days, it appears that Rob Portman is rising in the polls against his Democrat rival, Ted Strickland, and the Democrat National Committee is deploying party money elsewhere.  Portman is rising out of danger.

Likewise, Marco Rubio is coming on strong in Florida; and last night John McCain won the Republican primary handily and looks to be the odds-on bet to be re-elected this fall.

Mark Kirk looks to be a goner.  Kirk is lacklustre, and has an undistinguished record in the Senate.  Kirk is one of those reliable people any team needs, but he is not one to carve out a distinctive place for himself in the Senatorial firmament, and hasn’t.  He is a guy who needs coattails.  Illinois is Barack Obama’s home state, it is solidly blue, and is in terrible financial shape.  The state will likely vote desperately for the party of hand-outs this time around.

Which brings us to Kelly Ayotte.  Trump’s coattails are supposed to carry her across the finish line in New Hampshire.  Ayotte has not endorsed Trump for president even after his nomination.  I’m sure a few remarks critical of Trump can be found in her public statements.  Ayotte has had political career in the granite state, both as Attorney-General and as U.S. Senator for the last six years.  She has had visibility in the senate, having allied herself with the two biggest military hawks in that body.  And people are counting on Trump’s coattails for a victory by her in the fall?

Apparently, her career in the Senate has not been pleasing to the folks in New Hampshire if she is in trouble.  She’s not a newbie riding on the wave of a movement, like she was in 2010 riding the TEA-party wave.  She has a record all her own to run on, and she doesn’t want to get on board the Trump train.

Okay, so she is going to do all the heavy lifting herself.  Fine.  Then let’s stop hearing the talk of Trump’s having long enough coattails or not.  And let’s stop hearing about Republican discontent with Trump’s campaign affecting down-ballot races when the Republican establishment is distancing itself from Donald Trump.  If the grown-ups are going to do all the heavy lifting themselves while shooting spit-balls at the presidential nominee, then shut-up and stop complaining that he isn’t helping you.  Just lift, and mind your own business.

The senate would probably be poorer with the loss of Kelly Ayotte and her replacement with another cookie-cutter Democrat, in this case the state governor Maggie Hassan.  Ayotte has chosen to fight her re-election battle in her own way, and that’s fine.  She’s a grown-up.  But it would be wrong to place the blame for her defeat, if it happens, at the feet of Donald Trump.

The Republican establishment is preparing to blame Donald Trump for their losing down-ballot races.  If Trump wins the presidency, it will be an amazing case of divided government: the Trump party holding the Whitehouse, the party of Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan holding the Congress, and both parties being nominally Republican!

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