Vincent J. Curtis
31 Aug 2016
Poor Kelly Ayotte.
Kelly Ayotte is the Republican senator from New Hampshire, first elected
in the TEA-party wave of 2010. Upon
election, she immediately allied herself with Republican senators John McCain
(R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC).
Previous to her election as senator, she was the Attorney-General of the
State of New Hampshire.
Ayotte, along with Senators Mark Kirk (R-IL), Rob Portman
(R-OH), Marco Rubio (R-FL), and John McCain himself, are thought to be in
electoral trouble this season, and if the Republicans lose four senate seats,
they would lose control of the senate in the event of a win by Hillary
Clinton. Holding only fifty seats, the
Democrats would control the senate in virtue of the tie-breaking vote held by
the putative Democrat Vice-President, Tim Kaine.
Republicans are hoping to pick up the senate seat being
vacated by present Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). That win would give Republicans fifty-one
seats after the loss of four, and control of the senate withal.
One of the reasons for Republican establishment's concern
about the Trump campaign is that if Trump loses too badly, then it is likely
that Republicans will lose control of the Senate also. And rather than get behind Trump four-square,
the Republican establishment is busy complaining about Trump and his potential
lack of electoral coattails. They are
preparing to blame their loss of the senate on Donald Trump.
Over the last few days, it appears that Rob Portman is rising
in the polls against his Democrat rival, Ted Strickland, and the Democrat
National Committee is deploying party money elsewhere. Portman is rising out of danger.
Likewise, Marco Rubio is coming on strong in Florida; and
last night John McCain won the Republican primary handily and looks to be the
odds-on bet to be re-elected this fall.
Mark Kirk looks to be a goner. Kirk is lacklustre, and has an undistinguished
record in the Senate. Kirk is one of
those reliable people any team needs, but he is not one to carve out a
distinctive place for himself in the Senatorial firmament, and hasn’t. He is a guy who needs coattails. Illinois is Barack Obama’s home state, it is
solidly blue, and is in terrible financial shape. The state will likely vote desperately for the
party of hand-outs this time around.
Which brings us to Kelly Ayotte. Trump’s coattails are supposed to carry her
across the finish line in New Hampshire.
Ayotte has not endorsed Trump for president even after his
nomination. I’m sure a few remarks critical
of Trump can be found in her public statements.
Ayotte has had political career in the granite state, both as
Attorney-General and as U.S. Senator for the last six years. She has had visibility in the senate, having
allied herself with the two biggest military hawks in that body. And people are counting on Trump’s coattails for
a victory by her in the fall?
Apparently, her career in the Senate has not been pleasing
to the folks in New Hampshire if she is in trouble. She’s not a newbie riding on the wave of a
movement, like she was in 2010 riding the TEA-party wave. She has a record all her own to run on, and she
doesn’t want to get on board the Trump train.
Okay, so she is going to do all the heavy lifting
herself. Fine. Then let’s stop hearing the talk of Trump’s
having long enough coattails or not. And
let’s stop hearing about Republican discontent with Trump’s campaign affecting
down-ballot races when the Republican establishment is distancing itself from
Donald Trump. If the grown-ups are going
to do all the heavy lifting themselves while shooting spit-balls at the
presidential nominee, then shut-up and stop complaining that he isn’t helping
you. Just lift, and mind your own
business.
The senate would probably be poorer with the loss of Kelly
Ayotte and her replacement with another cookie-cutter Democrat, in this case
the state governor Maggie Hassan. Ayotte
has chosen to fight her re-election battle in her own way, and that’s
fine. She’s a grown-up. But it would be wrong to place the blame for
her defeat, if it happens, at the feet of Donald Trump.
The Republican establishment is preparing to blame Donald
Trump for their losing down-ballot races.
If Trump wins the presidency, it will be an amazing case of divided
government: the Trump party holding the Whitehouse, the party of Mitch
McConnell and Paul Ryan holding the Congress, and both parties being nominally
Republican!
-30-