Friday, December 24, 2021

BC 2021 Wildfire lookback

Vincent J. Curtis

24 Dec 21

We all know that climate change causes a loss of critical thinking capacity in many humans, and a good example of this is the commentary over the 2021 British Columbia wildfire season.  So many “experts” were certain that the extensive (and extensively covered) B.C. wildfires were due to climate change.  The data is now in, can we can examine dispassionately what the facts are.

The total burn acreage in B.C. in 2021 as reported on the government website is 868,205 ha (hectares).  The 2010 to 2020 average is 348,149 ha.  Gosh, that 2021 number looks really bad.  Between 2010 and 2020, the lowest burn acreage occurred in 2011, with 12,604, followed closely by 2020 with 14,526 ha.  The highest burn acreage occurred in 2018 with 1,354,284 ha, followed closely by 2017 with 1,216,053.  The burn acreage of 2021 is above the decade’s average, but within the expected range, and well below the two highest years.

What these numbers mean is that there is no trend evident in B.C. burn acreage over the period 2010 to 2021.  Some years are quite low while others are very high, with 2021 coming in the high middle, with the two prior years being quite low in burn acreage.

The absence of a trend means you can’t claim the data or the event supports a trend, i.e. that of climate worsening.

The media, which loves to keep the public alarmed over something, be it COVID or climate change, aren’t going to report the falsification of their summertime thesis.

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Here’s the data:

Year                Hectares burned

2021                868,203

2020                14,526

2019                21,138

2018                1,354,284

2017                1,216,053

2016                100,366

2105                280,605

2014                369,168

2013                18,298

2012                102,122

2011                12,604

2010                337,149

Avg                 348,917

 

2009                247,419

2008                13,240

Avg since 2008           314,383

 

Since 2010: person caused 562 (42 %)  lightning caused 790 (58 %)

 

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