What Alberta COVID Data Says

Vincent J. Curtis

30 Sept 21

You can learn a lot by reading well-presented data.  Take, for instance, Alberta’s COVID data page.  Figure 14 shows the tracking of COVID hospitalizations and ICU admissions since April 1^st, 2020; while figure 16 shows the daily COVID death count.

You can clearly see the waves of the pandemic.  The second wave, which ran roughly between November 1st and March 1^st, was the worst, with more deaths and hospitalizations occurring in that period than in wave three.  ICU admissions peaked at under 200 in the second wave.  The death count of wave two is much higher than wave three, and still worse than the current wave four.

There was no deep trough between the second and third waves, but the deepest part of the valley was around March 15^th.  The third wave can be said to begin April 1^st and ending August 1^st.  Jason Kenny and Deena Henshaw were both severely criticized by Federal poohbahs Dr. Theresa Tam and Minister Patty Hajdu and the Karens in the media for ending Alberta COVID restrictions too early, on July 1^st.  The data plainly shows the poohbahs were wrong.  The tail end of the third wave had numbers that simply didn’t justify continued lockdown, being their lowest in nine months.  You can’t tell people that restrictions need to continue to protect the health care system when the system is plainly not under stress.

The trend in hospitalizations and ICU admissions continued downward for another month, until August 1^st.  If the Federal government had projections showing an upturn in Alberta’s COVID problem within the incubation period of the virus, they would have been wrong.  Alberta’s July break did not incubate the fourth wave.

Hospitalization began rising again into a fourth wave about mid-August, and shows a taller peak at the end of September than the peak of the second wave, which occurred January 1^st.  ICU admissions have risen to a higher level than in the second wave.  Deaths in the four wave are lower than in the second, but worse than in the third waves.

Given the shapes of the curves of waves two and three, wave four ought to be peaking at or before October 15th, and ICU admissions should cap out at just below 300.

When you compare the data to the political proclamations from all quarters about the need for lockdowns, passports, and even vaccinations, you can see that a lot of emperors have no clothes.  The pandemic ebbs and flows in accordance with factors the “experts” have yet to figure out, and any mandate or restriction of any kind amounts to a kind of thumb-sucking order.

Thumb-sucking does nothing practical, but can make some people feel better.

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