O’Toole wins leadership debate. Trudeau hosed.

Vincent J. Curtis

10 Sept 21

It was a grueling two hours.  It could have ended after the first seventy minutes and been enough, but after a full two hours the English language leadership debate was a debacle for Justin Trudeau.  Prolonging it beyond one hour didn’t rescue his cause.

The plain winner was Erin O’Toole.  He came across as reasonable, Prime Ministerial, in command of his briefs, focussed, and well-spoken.  He was delivering his talking points but didn’t sound like he was, which was why he was so effective.  O’Toole was the best debater on stage last night.

The next best, a surprising second, was Annamie Paul.  You don’t have to agree with her positions to see that she is impressive; she came across well, sincere, well-spoken and focussed on the question.  Her attack on Justin Trudeau’s feminist credentials was powerful.  Her criticism that the stage was insufficiently diverse fell to the ground when you count a black woman, a Sikh, two French guys, and a white Anglo among five people.  It’s hard to get more diverse than that.  Maybe another woman, but hey, Chrystia Freeland’s only deputy leader.  Paul is personally so impressive that I’d offer her an Ambassadorship to the country of her choice.

Justin Trudeau came in dead last among the debaters.  He was losing, and he knew it; in panic-mode he came across as desperate, trying to land blows on the calm, confident O’Toole, and delivering those tropes of how wonderful Canadians can be under his leadership.  Trudeau was taking blows from all sides, and particularly telling were those recounting promises made, promises not kept.  All talk, no action.  A floundering, panicked Trudeau did not come across well.  He was far less Prime Ministerial than O’Toole, and if the roles were reversed and O’Toole were PM, you’d never select the Trudeau of last night over the O’Toole of last night.

Jagmeet Singh came across as credible.  He didn’t hurt his cause, which is socialism, and he probably helped it by coming across as more sensible and thoughtful than the program he represents.  His attacks on Trudeau were effective, and Trudeau was forced address specifically the problem of progressives parking their votes with Singh at this election.  Singh was pretty good, just eclipsed by a radiant Annamie Paul.

Yves-François Blanchet was the Quebecois curmudgeon whose most effective lines concerned reconciliation with aboriginals on a “nation-to-nation” footing.  He regards Quebec as a nation, while the other provinces are mere provinces; and he wants Ottawa to treat Quebec on a “nation-to-nation” basis.  Otherwise, he showed the rest of Canada that the Bloc Quebecois could work with a Conservative government under Erin O’Toole that, like the Harper government, respected the constitutional rights of the provinces and basically left Quebec alone.  The support for an O’Toole government was a signal that a workable Conservative minority government is possible.

The general attitude among the commentariat is dissatisfaction with the debate format, which means they too recognize that their hero got hosed last night.  Trudeau lacks the discipline to talk in epigrams as O’Toole did last night, and the tight schedule kept him from ever regaining his balance after he stumbled out of the gate, which he does repeatedly.  His attempts to speak over the others during their time was effectively controlled by the moderators, and he looked bad in comparison to O’Toole by continually trying and failing at this gambit.

O’Toole deserves a multi-point bounce after the debate at the expense of Trudeau.  Paul’s performance may help her party overtake the PPC party of Maxime Bernier in the polls.

We’ll see.  Just ten days to the election, and it could be a Conservative minority.

-30-