Fighter Jet Replacement 2020

Vincent J. Curtis

7 Apr 2020

The glacier that is the Fighter Jet Replacement Project is suffering from climate change: it’s retreating.

If the COVID-19 crisis confirmed anything, it’s that if the Prime Minister wants something to happen, it happens.  Conversely, the FJCP shows that if the PM doesn’t want something, it doesn’t happen. 

The coronavirus crisis knocked many things out of the news.  Remember the Gaslink Pipeline crisis and the shutdown of the CN Rail line?  Seems like ancient history.  The prospects of conflict around the world changed profoundly also.

Russia and Saudi Arabia are fighting an oil war which caused the price of crude to crash into the twenty dollar range.  Since oil and gas exports fuels Russia’s economy, Vlad is hurting, and, at 67, his appetite for risk isn’t getting bigger either.

There is talk that the virus could be the Chernobyl of the Chinese Communist regime.  With its “Belt and Road” policy and strategy of “Anti-access/Area Denial” in the South China Sea, China pursues a policy of international dominance that deflects attention from problems at home.  The Xi Jin Ping regime could press expansionism harder as folks at home blame it for the pandemic.

The Trudeau Liberals promised to spend, oh, $21 billion on new fighters and $62 billion on new frigates.  So far, that’s just been talk.  Yet, $184 billion got conjured out of thin air to help companies and people and government programs get through the pandemic shutdown.

The last year has been unkind to some of the FJRP contenders.  Boeing’s stock price plunged seventy-five percent as a result of the 737 Max debacle and the collapse of air travel.  Bombardier exited the commercial jet manufacturing business entirely, and that $6 billion Canada invested created good jobs for Airbus workers in Huntsville, Alabama.

All the interesting developments in fighter jets have been in the older designs.  The F-15X Super Eagle is a superior fighter in every way to the F-35, except in stealth.  It’s faster, flies higher, has greater range, has the newest electronics, and now carries an altogether new package of lethal ordinance.  Its unit purchase price is much lower.  The F-16V is the Block 70 version of the most produced Gen 4 fighter.  It does everything Canada requires of a fighter, together with the sovereign advantage of being cheap to operate - meaning lots of flying hours for pilots.  It’s not a stealth aircraft, but its radar cross-section is remarkably low.

Lack of fighter jet range is a problem in the Pacific waters China seeks to dominate.  Supposing a fighter jet were developed that combined speed, altitude, endurance, and a large ordinance package?  One already has.  It was called the Avro Arrow.

The Mark II Arrow had the speed and altitude performance of today’s MiG-31.  It was designed with a 2,900 gallon internal fuel load.  With modern jet engines, the Arrow could fly from Canada to Europe on internal fuel.  Its nose cone was large enough to house the biggest of today’s scanning radar arrays.

A window has opened to test the Arrow concept.  Nothing’s stopping the government from letting a contract to build a Mark III prototype.  The Liberals wanted the FJRP to stimulate Canada’s aircraft industry, well here’s their chance.

The Arrow was designed for the RCAF’s primary mission, the air defense of North America.  With its long legs, the Arrow would find strategic relevance in the Pacific theatre also.  A strategy of anti-access/area denial wouldn’t work against a land-based aircraft with the Arrow’s combination of speed and endurance..

The Arrow remains strategically relevant to the primary mission of the RCAF.  The qualities that give the Arrow that continuing relevance will also find application in a conflict in the Pacific theatre.  The Prime Minister intended to use the FJRP to stimulate the Canadian aircraft business, and now that the coronavirus pandemic has changed the strategic picture, we have time – and the money - to explore a possibility that ought to have been explored long ago.
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