Vincent J. Curtis
7 Oct 21
RE: New COVID modelling suggests restrictions helping Alberta turn corner on pandemic. CBC report Posted Oct 7, 2021, at 9:00 AM MT
Those who follow these things know that Premier Kenney and Dr. Deena Henshaw are peddling a field of bison pies when they claim that their measures are “helping Alberta turn the corner on the pandemic.”
In the first place, there is no “turning the corner on the pandemic”; there is only passing the crest of the current wave and expecting the tide to ebb for a while.
On September 30th, I forecasted that the fourth wave in Alberta was cresting, and the data up to October 7th shows that it has. Cases are down, and most importantly, ICU occupancy is off its crest. It only took a glance at the plotted data of waves two and three to see that wave four would crest imminently, as it did. Provincial restrictions had nothing to do with it; it was just the natural course of a wave revealing itself.
Those in charge are trying to make it look like they have control, when they don’t. They’re claiming their measures turned the tide, when they didn’t. Those in charge think that more measures will end the scourge, when they won’t.
Mask mandates didn’t stop waves two and three, and did nothing about four. Lockdowns stopped only business. Even high vaccination rates proved unavailing, which is surprising but nevertheless true.
To hell their cursed models.
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