They blew their brains out in the spring

Vincent J. Curtis

27 Nov 20

The cases curve says it all.  The medical experts had Alberta shoot all its bullets at the wrong time.  They have nothing left for the second wave.

In March and April, Alberta went full Chinese Communist and locked down the province, except that there was practically no virus around.  The New Cases in Alberta curve shows a small bump of fewer than 100 cases per day at the beginning of April, followed by a slightly larger bump of about 225 cases per day at the end of April. Then, cases dropped practically to zero by the end of May.  All this time, schools were closed, small businesses were closed, and the economy devastated.  People grew exhausted of lockdown tyranny.  Then, things were allowed gradually to reopen.  There is no evidence in the curve that the lockdown did anything.  Nor should we expect to find effects, since the virus was so scarce, the cause had nothing to work on.

In the middle of October, the virus began to show up in force, and by the end of November cases per day approached 1300.  There is no more patience for lockdown measures.  The boy who cried wolf in March is crying it again, but there is no more room to accommodate it.  The economic, social, and educational devastation of the spring exhausted Alberta’s reserves and now schools and businesses have to stay open because crisis of another lockdown can’t be survived.  That cure is worse than the disease, even in this worse case.

What happened is that the medical experts over-reacted the first time.  They reacted like sheep, just following the lead of other jurisdictions without looking at Alberta’s special case, and the political leadership didn’t push back.

This is an object lesson of the folly of rule by expert.  We are still lacking in evidence that lockdown does anything anyway.

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