Not Good News

Vincent J. Curtis

9 Nov 20

The COVID-19 cases curve is not peaking.  Daily cases continue to rise, and the unresolved cases accumulate.  Nevertheless, deaths, hospitalizations, numbers in ICU and on ventilators are dropping even as cases rise.

Deaths, hospitalizations, and numbers in ICU and on ventilators on this wave are far below the numbers of the first wave, in spite of the fact that this wave is far larger than the first.  COVID-19 is a disease for those over 70, and in the first wave not enough precautions were taken to protect the elderly.  Unsurprisingly, the average age of a person who died in the first wave was 83.  The statistics of the second wave are lower due to better care being taken in light of experience, and because many of the most vulnerable were taken in the first wave.

There is nothing that can be done to force the cases curve to peak, and even efforts at flattening only prolong the crisis.  It is obvious that the health care system won’t collapse due to numbers of COVID patients, and perhaps a strategy of “ripping the scab off” ought to be contemplated.  Continue to protect the elderly, but let people resume ordinary life.  End the restrictions.  Stop traumatizing society.

We would see a rapid rise in cases, but little rise in the other statistics because of the demographics of those who would become cases.  A vaccine may be coming, but can we really wait until June, 2021, to get a shot?

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