Vincent J. Curtis
17 Nov 20
The last official pandemic modelling is breaking down. On November 12, the Provincial Medical Officer of Health forecasted a growth rate of five percent per day, and expected a daily case rate of 6,500 by the middle of December. Already, the numbers aren’t panning out.
After less than a week, the daily case number ought to be over 2,200 and the seven-day average over 1,800. However, Ontario hasn’t seen a daily case number above 1,581, meaning all the others are less when they should have been more. The seven-day average of daily cases has been rising, but not at the rate forecasted, being less than 1,500 as of this writing.
The failure to rise could mean that the second wave is finally peaking. If we see a few more days of flat case numbers, then Ontario is at an inflection point. Normal statistical behavior of these things would indicate a slow but steady decline afterwards.
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