Pandemic growth models are failing

Vincent J. Curtis

20 Nov 20

The good news is that the forecast of five percent per day growth in numbers of cases in Ontario is failing.  The bad news is that the authorities are pretending it isn’t.

On November 12th, the Ontario Medical Officer of Health forecasted a growth rate in cases of five percent per day, and by mid-December anticipated 6,500 cases per day.  Every day since that forecast, the actual numbers haven’t just been below forecast, they have flat.  They haven’t grown at all.

After one week, the model forecasted a daily case number of around 2,100; and after two weeks, around 3,000.  But in the first week, Ontario saw daily case numbers of: 1248, 1487, 1249, 1417, 1210, and 1418.  The zero rate of growth is what might be called a “flattening of the curve.”  The flattening is a point of inflection; growth can resume or start to decline.  Time will tell.  But for the moment, the actual data won’t support more stringent lockdown measures.  They’re proving the modelling wrong.  Badly wrong.

Premier Ford looks grave enough at his press conferences that he must be weighing more stringent measures against the real prospect of civil disobedience.  When widespread civil disobedience breaks out, there’s no putting humpty-dumpty back together again.

For all the admonishment to “follow the science” let’s understand that modelling isn’t science, and actual data is the only beginning of science.  The data so far won’t support allegedly scientific lockdowns.

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