Vincent J. Curtis
22 Sept 20
RE: Ford's choice of 'Dr. Dirk' sparks criticism
It’s hard to see how Dr. Dirk Huyer, Ontario’s Chief Coroner, could give worse advice to Premier Ford than he is already receiving. As of today, Ontario reported 6,128 unresolved cases of COVID-19. Ontario’s population is 14.6 million. A bit of math will show you that the unresolved cases amount to 1 in 2,400 people, roughly.
If you assume the very worst, that these unresolved cases are all contagious and are not isolating, the odds are that only one in the next 2,400 people you encounter could give you the virus. Not will, but could, depending on the intensity of the encounter. So why is Premier Ford limiting crowd sizes to six or ten people? Are Ford’s medical advisors too proud to hire a mathematician to help with statistical issues?
If you limited crowd size to 500, there is still only a one in five chance that one of those 500 people would be an unresolved case. Limiting crowd size is a way of looking like you’re doing something, but really aren’t.
Ford needs to get better advice, and shaking up his medical team can only help. The addition of a mathematician would also help.
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