CO2 at the end of the century

Vincent J. Curtis

25 Oct 22

Newspapers often runs op-eds by climate “activists”, people who don’t understand the science, but know the hype, how to scare the bejesus out of people, and tell them what to do.  What you never hear are the forecasts of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere that supposedly leads to climate collapse, or worse.

The most extreme model is the one policy and all the fear mongering is based on.  It is known as RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway), and it forecasts over 1000 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere in the year 2100, with temperature rise due to “forcing” between 3.2℃ and 5.4℃.  No scientist takes this model seriously because of the extremely high forecast of CO2.

Between 1980 and 2022, a period of 42 years, CO2 has increased by 70 ppm, from 350 to 420 ppm.  Doubling that to 84 years adds 140 ppm more CO2, bringing the total to 560 ppm in the year 2106.  This is far more reasonable, and corresponds to the RCP6 model.  The RCP6 model forecasts 580 to 720 ppm CO2, with “forcing” between 2.0℃ and 3.7℃.

This means that if we do nothing, the goal of the Paris Accord of holding temperature rise at or below 2.0℃ will be met.  We don’t have to eliminate fossil fuels or go electric or rely on the unreliables: wind and solar.

Canada in particular doesn’t need to go climate crazy.  Canada contributes 0.037 ppm per year to the increase.  Over 80 years, Canada will contribute a grand total of 3.0 ppm to the global increase.  That doesn’t justify spending gobs of money on “climate change” or turning our lives upside down out of fear of what might happen in the year 2100.

Worry about the here and now.  The climate future looks fine.

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Roy Spencer (2018) and Judith Curry (2014) both forecast 540 ppm as the stable, long term CO2 concentration.  Spencer’s model forecasts a slow rise to stability by 2250, yes 228 years from now.