Don’t be discouraged by COP26

Vincent J. Curtis

8 Nov 21

 

RE: COP26 failings shouldn’t be a discouragement.  Hamilton Spectator editorial 8 Nov 21

No serious climate activist (if there are any) should be discouraged by the COP26 conference.  The news isn’t all bad.  In fact, it’s good!

The University of Alabama in Huntsville has been measuring temperatures of the lower troposphere, that layer of the earth’s atmosphere closest to the surface, by satellite since 1979.  Their satellites see over 97 percent of the earth’s surface, meaning (since 70 percent of it is covered by ocean) they produce numbers more reliable than any set of ground-based thermometers.  UAH measurements are not subject to local ground interferences, like placing a thermometer next to an asphalt parking lot.

Since 1979, the satellite data trace an increase in lower tropospheric temperature to 1997.  Between 1997 and 2015, the temperatures were flat, and began rising again in 2016 to the present.  The twenty year pause in global warming is why we no longer speak of ‘global warming’ but of ‘climate change.’

Overall, between 1979 and the present, the average rate of increase in global temperature in 0.13℃ per decade.  Hence, over the ten decades of the 21^st century, global temperature is scheduled to rise by 1.3℃, less than the 1.5℃ targeted as the preferred maximum..  That is if present trends continue.

There is no reason for present trends to continue.  In the 20^th century, global temperatures rose from the year 1900 to 1940, fell from 1940 to 1979, and began rising again in 1980.  Based on the historical temperature patterns, the world could be due for a cooling trend beginning within the next decade.

Regardless of what emerges from COP26, the primary goal – preventing temperature rise - of COP26 is well within reach.

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