Fifty-four or Fight!

Vincent J. Curtis

15 May 25

“..somebody drew that line many years ago, like a ruler, right across the top of the country..” observed President Donald Trump in his first Oval Office meeting with Prime Minster Mark Carney. That line, sometimes called the 49^th parallel, was drawn by his predecessors, in 1818 and 1846.

The Treaty of 1818, between the United States and Great Britain, settled matters, including boundary disputes, that arose from the War of 1812.  The 49^th parallel was agreed as the boundary from Lake of the Woods to the Rocky Mountains.  West of that terminus lay the Pacific North West, and no final resolution was reached concerning that region.

Called the Oregon Country by the Americans, and the Columbia District by the British (whence British Columbia), the Pacific North West, which includes the Columbia and the Snake Rivers, may be defined as that part of North America bounded by the Pacific Ocean on the West, the 42ºN latitude on the south; the continental divide on the east, and 54º40’N latitude on the north; the last being the southern boundary of Russian America.  Louisiana Territory, purchased by the United States from France in 1803, lay on the east side of the continental divide.

Captain George Vancouver, on behalf of Great Britain, discovered and mapped its sea coast; and Alexander Mackenzie, trekking from Canada by land, reached the Pacific coast in 1792.  For America, Lewis and Clark reached the mouth of the Columbia River in 1805.  In these early days, the fur trade was the main economic reason for controlling the area.  Starting in 1807, explorer David Thompson began developing the region around the Columbia River on behalf of the Montreal-based North West Company, then a competitor to the Hudson’s Bay Company.  In 1811, at the junction of the Snake and Columbia Rivers, Thompson formally claimed the land on behalf of Great Britain, the company erecting Fort Nez Percés on the site.  The American Pacific Fur Company set up a trading post at the mouth of the Columbia in 1811, but the company collapsed during the War of 1812, and its assets fell into the possession of the NWC.

Americans were as bad at geography then as they are now; many believed that the Louisiana Territory extended up to Russian America; and in 1818 American negotiators offered to saw-off the disputed territory along the 49^th parallel, a westward continuation of the boundary from the Rocky Mountains.  The British counter-offered the Columbia River as a boundary, as this would protect the trade of the NWC, and later the HBC. No resolution was reached, and the Treaty of 1818 established a joint occupation of the region for a period of ten years.  Discussions continued, but the Americans could not accept the Columbia River boundary, for they would be left with no deep-water port on the Pacific coast.  (San Francisco Bay didn’t fall into their possession until the Mexican-American War of 1846) Lacking resolution on the boundary dispute, the joint occupation agreement was renewed.  It is noteworthy that in this period the only continuous white presence in the region were the employees of the HBC. At its height around 1840, 34 outposts, 24 ports, six ships, and 600 employees were managed out of Fort Vancouver (modern day Vancouver, WA), and by 1846, only perhaps 3,000 white people lived in the disputed area.

Facts on the ground began to change in the 1830s when Americans began to settle in the Willamette Valley, and American presence rapidly expanded after the opening of the Oregon Trail in 1843.

By 1844, the annexation of the Republic of Texas was a central issue of the presidential election of that year. Texas was a breakaway province of Mexico; her annexation would inevitably lead to war; further complicating matters was that Texas would enter the Union as a slave state, upsetting the balance in the U.S. Senate, and spreading slavery outside the South.  The Oregon Country thus represented to the Democrats the prospect of balancing future free states in the new territory against Texas, as well as appeal to American expansionist sentiment. The danger was having to fight two wars against two enemies simultaneously.  Fighting a war with Great Britain over Oregon would see, as in 1814, the Royal Navy bombarding the major U.S. cities that lay on the eastern seaboard, which included Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, and Charleston.  Hence, the pledge to “Fifty-four Forty or Fight” was an audacious move by James K. Polk and the Democratic party in the election of 1844, though the slogan itself was actually coined by the Democrat press.  Polk raised tensions further in his 1845 State of the Union address, declaring that that U.S. title to the entire Pacific North West was “clear and unquestionable,” and he later recommended giving one year’s notice of the termination of the joint occupation agreement. Newspapers urged that it was “by right of the manifest destiny of the United States to overspread and to possess the whole of the continent which Providence has given us.”

The British, however, were equally adept at rattling the sabre; but were also aware of the low commercial value of the Columbia District to Great Britain as compared to trade and good relations with the U.S.  Both sides were therefore privately inclined to compromise, and it was President Polk who re-offered the proposal first made by his predecessor, President John Tyler, for the 49^th parallel as the boundary, sweetened by ceding the entirety of Vancouver Island to Britain.  Lord Aberdeen, who sought good relations with the United States, agreed, and the matter was settled by the Oregon Treaty, signed on June 15, 1846.  The Mexican-American War broke out on April 26, 1846.

And that’s why the 49^th parallel forms the boundary between Canada and the United States today: by the proposals and agreements of successive U.S. administrations, from James Monroe to James K. Polk.

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Buy American!

Vincent J. Curtis

29 Apr 25

Donald Trump is particularly responsible for driving Justin Trudeau from office. Confronting Trudeau with a list of complains and demands at a pre-inaugural meeting at Mar-a-Lago, Trump began teasing and, sensing weakness, taunting Trudeau as the “Governor” of the 51^st state. He claimed that the United States subsidized Canada to the tune of $200 billion, and said that he was tired of it. Canada, as an independent country didn’t work without these subsidies, and that Canadians would be much better off if they became American, with him as president.

It never occurred to Trudeau to reply that if Canada were a 51^st state, she wouldn’t be able to extend political asylum to Mr. Trump when the Democrats attacked him with lawfare. President Putin of Russia missed a chance to humiliate the Biden Administration by not offering Mr. Trump political asylum in Russia, in the midst of his legal travails before his election in November, 2024.  But I digress.

To date, no one has asked President Trump to account for this $200 billion claim.  In recent years, Canada has opened up a trade surplus with the United States in the order of $60 billion a year.  In every voluntary economic transaction, both sides think they benefit. In this annual set of voluntary transactions, America nets $60 billion worth of Canadian stuff, and Canada takes in exchange, pieces of paper covered in black and green ink, and embossed with the image of a deceased American worthy. Canadians consider this fair exchange!

An accumulation of large amounts of these pieces of paper, ordinarily, would become intolerable; but Canadians continue accepting these pieces of paper in exchange for their stuff because other people will take these pieces of paper in exchange for their stuff that Canadians want. A German will exchange these pieces of American paper for a new BMW.  The Chinese will exchange them for an iPhone.  Americans will even exchange them for other, virtual, pieces of paper known as stocks and coupon-bearing bonds.  That’s the splendour of having the world reserve currency; and, even more wonderful, is that, if America runs short of these pieces of paper for her own domestic needs, she can always print more of them on the presses in basement of the Federal Reserve building.

To reduce the trade imbalance, Trump introduced tariffs.  From the founding of the Republic to the introduction of the income tax in 1913, the U.S. Federal government earned most of its revenue from tariffs.  They’re easy to collect.  The era of the greatest expansion in economy, population, and power of the United States was from 1870 to 1910, and this is the period that Trump looks to for inspiration.  With tariffs, Trump can reduce income taxes without loss of revenue to the Treasury.

What can Canada do to deal with Trump? One smart thing the Canadian government can negotiate is to buy American made military equipment: that satisfies simultaneously a number of Trump’s demands: to take active measures to reduce the trade deficit; to increase military spending, and it’s an endorsement that American made military equipment is the best in the world.

So, what to buy: the F-15EX, the F-16 Viper, or (okay) the F-35? In WWJD (What would Jacky Do, EdC Vol 28, No. 5.), I showed that small were the differences in dimensions between a Type 26 Frigate and an Arleigh Burke class destroyer, and the American made ship costs less than half the projected cost of the frigate -- with exchange.  Canada needs more helicopters, drones, the latest in mobile artillery; Canada could use Abrams tanks, and there are plenty of innovative small arms from Knight Armaments that could be purchased for trial in lots of 500 to 1000.

How can Canada pay for all of this? By completing the Keystone XL pipeline, which will enable America to ship American produced oil and LNG to Europe by substituting Alberta production for American for consumption.

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Russian Su-35 shot down

Vincent J. Curtis

12 June 25

A Russian Su-35 Super-Flanker was shot down over Russia on June 9, 2025, and Ukrainian sources suggest it was downed by a Ukrainian flown F-16V Viper aided by a SAAB 340 Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) aircraft.  The reports are unconfirmed, but the German newspaper BILD reports that a Ukrainian F-16V fired a long-range AIM-120 guided missile at the Su-35 from a distance of 50 miles using tracking data provided by a SAAB 340 AEW&C, which had been tracking the Russian place from a distance of several hundred miles.  The Russian air-superiority fighter crashed near the Russian city of Korenvo, which lies in the Kursk Oblast. The Russian pilot parachuted safely, and survived.

The AIM-120 missile is a “fire and forget” type that ordinarily obtains its initial tracking data from its host plane, in this case the Ukrainian F-16.  Had the F-16 used its own internal radars to obtain a lock on the Russian jet, the Russian jet would have detected the presence of the F-16 and the pilot become aware of the possibility of an attack. The radars on board the SAAB 340 are much more powerful than can be fitted into an F-16 and, to the Russian jet, an AWE&C aircraft, being unarmed, posed no threat, besides being hundreds of miles away from it.

But the tracking data from the SAAB 340 provided the initial lock to the guided missile, enabling the F-16 keep its radars turned off, remaining effectively invisible to the Russian jet. If the Su-35 saw the F-16 at all, it would have seen it turn away at a great distance and the Russian pilot would not likely suspect that an attack was coming.  If the Russian pilot detected the incoming missile, it would have been too late to take evasive action.

There are other theories as to how the Su-35 was shot down, but there is no doubt that one was, and if it was by an F-16 carrying an AIM-120 aided by a Saab 340 AEW&C, it demonstrates a new development in air combat.

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YANKEES REPULSED!

Vincent J. Curtis

5 Feb 25

STONEY CREEK – (Special to Esprit de Corps): After a desperate night attack by British forces upon the invading American army, the Yanks have withdrawn to Grimsby, and left the battlefield in British possession.

After losing Fort George on May 27, British forces (Brig-Gen Jⁿ Vincent commanding) withdrew to a position on the Burling Heights at the head of the Lake, disbanding militia units along the way.  One brigade of Americans, (Brig-Gen W^m Winder commanding), pursued Vincent as far as Grimsby, where he halted and awaited reinforcements. Winder was joined by a second brigade, Brig-Gen Jⁿ Chandler, commanding. This division advanced to Stoney Creek; and, on June 5^th, halted at the farm of the Gage family.  The plain object of the invaders was the capture of York.

Lt-Col Jⁿ Harvey was dispatched by Gen Vincent to reconnoiter the invaders’ camp, returning with both a plan and the password.  Harvey proposed a surprise night attack as the means of repulsing the American force, which greatly outnumbered the British and had a stronger artillery arm. Vincent agreed, and placed Harvey in command of the operation.  Thus, a British force consisting of five companies of the 1/8 (King’s) Reg^t of Foot, the 49^th Reg^t of Foot, approx. 700 men were to hurl themselves against a force five times their strength. Noteworthy among the gallant 700 were 30 militiamen (Lincoln, York, Oxford & others), and 12 native allies.

The gallant 700 was guided from Burlington Heights to their attack position by Mr. W^m Green, a local lad familiar with the terrain, the location, and the lay-out of the camp. Our fortitudinous British departed at 23:30 o’clock.  They followed the old Indian trail called locally, “The King’s Street”, tromping in silence over ten miles to reach Stoney Creek, where they saw the campfires of the unsuspecting invaders.  A couple of native allies dealt with a sentry, silently, in their usual fashion involving bow, arrow, and tomahawk.  Cheers of success cost us the element of complete surprise, and the attack went in noisily.  The plan had been to bayonet the sleeping invaders in their tents; but now the alarm was raised, and, though in a state of confusion, the alerted invaders stood to arms.

The charge was initially successful; but the terrible disparity in numbers began to tell. The invaders had time to form ranks and direct their musketry in the direction of the of coming commotion; their artillery became effective, and their center held.  At this desperate moment, the brilliance of Yankee generalship commenced to turn the tide in our favor.  Attempting a maneuver at night, the invaders left his artillery exposed. The gallant 49^th (Maj Chas. Plenderleath commanding) charged and captured two guns. The impulse of their charge carried the 49^th into a surprised invader regiment (believed to be the 23^rd U.S. Infantry Reg^t), and in the course of pursuing the flying 23^rd, our boys encountered and captured no less a personage than the invading commander himself, Brig-Gen Chandler, Esq. Not to be outdone by his superior, Brig-Gen Winder surrendered himself to the self-same captor of Gen Chandler, Pte A. Fraser, leaving the invaders leaderless, and hapless.

Retreat in confusion began by regiments.  Both generals now being guests of the 49^th, Yankee command fell to a Col Jas. Burn, who ordered a retreat, which didn’t arrest until the flying invaders reached their old camp near Grimsby.  In less than three-quarters of an hour an invading force strong enough in daylight to brush aside resistance and capture York, sure in its superiority, was knocked on the head and driven back, their commanding generals and four artillery pieces held as prises de guerre by a force a fifth of their size. At dawn, a victorious Col Harvey ordered his troops to withdraw into the woods lest invader scouts ascertain how few were the victors.  When it was clear that the invaders were at Grimsby, Harvey’s men embraced the hospitality of the camp the invaders had so graciously left to them.

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Mark Carney's Habit of Deception

 Practicing Deception

Vincent J. Curtis

4 June 25

In the brevity of his presence on the public stage, Canadian Prime Minster Mark Carney has made numerous demonstrations of deception, which are contrary to trustworthiness, to good order, and to good government.  No, I’m not referring to the accusations of plagiarism or to his claims to the successful work of the Minister of Finance of the Harper Government, the late Jim Flaherty; no, I’m referring to actions like those below.

One of first acts as Prime Minister was to announce that he was cancelling the carbon tax, and, with a flourish, signed a document in an impressive looking red folder. The show resembled U.S. President Donald Trump signing an Executive Order: poof, it was the law of the land. The carbon tax was created by legislation, and it would take legislation to repeal it; hence, the carbon tax was not actually cancelled by his signature as Carney claimed it was; and the piece of paper in the impressive red folder that Carney signed had no force of law.  Orders-in-Council are documents that have force of law in Canada, and these are signed by the Governor-General upon the advice of the Cabinet or the responsible Minister. The OIC that the Governor-General signed in this instance merely reduced the rate of the carbon tax to zero; the law creating the carbon tax is still in force and on the books, and the tax rate can be raised at any time by another OIC: a carbon tax on commercial products like gasoline and diesel fuel is still the law of the land; the legislation hasn’t been repealed, either by Carney’s signature, the Governor-General’s signature, nor, so far, by Act of Parliament.  The show was political theatre that looked like a Trumpian exercise of power to the casual viewer.

Another series of acts of deception by Mark Carney concerned retaliatory tariffs by the Canadian government on goods imported from the United States; these tariffs were imposed in retaliation to tariffs suddenly imposed by the Trump Administration on Canadian goods. Carney’s tariffs were announced with great fanfare, and were offered as a sign of Mark Carney’s toughness and decisiveness against Trump; “elbows up” and all that.  These tariffs were supposed to collect $20 Billion, which were to be put towards the relief of those sectors of the economy affected by the Trump tariffs.  Secretly, on April 16^th, within weeks of their imposition, Carney introduced a program of exemptions, crafted in a way that makes it look like the tariffs remain in force, but any importer can request, and upon request receive, an exemption from paying tariff on goods imported from the United States.  This program wasn’t published in the Canada Gazette effectively until after the election (Published April 25; election April 28), though the exemption program came into force on April 16^th, i.e. before being published in the Canada Gazette.  This is why the Liberals refuse to answer the question put to them in the House of Commons, “how much tariff has been collected so far?” And “how can the government provide relief, or support, to those sectors of the economy affected by the Trump tariffs, when we’re collecting no money for it?”

Another area of deception concerns Bill C-69, the anti-pipeline legislation.  Carney has been making allusions to the construction of “nation building projects” that enjoy “consensus”, and hasn’t rejected openly the idea that oil and gas pipelines from Alberta qualify as “nation building projects”, at least not yet.  He has proposed get-arounds to deal with specific projects he approves of.  In the case of the anti-pipeline legislation, he’s hinted that a special piece of legislation would be crafted to override the sticky provisions of C-69 for that particular case.  This is not good-government legislating; it’s deceiving someone, such as the people who voted for and support C-69 as being decisive against more pipelines from Alberta.  But Carney doesn’t need to come out against pipelines from Alberta; he merely says “if there’s a consensus”, which there won’t be, because the Premier of British Columbia, David Eby, is adamantly opposed to running a pipeline through B.C. to reach tidewater from Alberta; and members of Carney’s own cabinet, such as Steven Guilbeault, are fervently opposed to more oil and gas production from Alberta.  Carney can appear to favor expansion of oil and gas production in Alberta, but be helpless to make it happen, which is his preferred option, given his long involvement in the Net Zero movement. Deceptive atmosphereics.

Another example of deception concerns the “decarbonized barrels” going through oil pipelines, as a condition of building new pipelines.  The process of extracting and upgrading Alberta bitumen was developed in the 1960s; roughly one quarter of the extracted bitumen is burnt to provide the heat and power to extract and upgrade the remaining three-quarters.  “Decarbonizing” means that either hydro or nuclear power replace the combustion of bitumen; that saved one-quarter becoming product for sale, for others to turn into, and burn, as fuel.  Alberta premier Danielle Smith has said that decarbonization has to occur after the pipelines are built; the revenue from a one million barrel a day pipeline will provide the money to pay for the construction of a nuclear reactor to replace the bitumen as the energy source to run the extraction and upgrading process. She’s also said it would be a failure if government had to build all these things, and not the private sector. Carney, the Net Zero guy, refuses to build a pipeline unless it carries “decarbonized barrels.”

Another, particularly disturbing, act of deception concerns the failure to produce a budget in the spring session of parliament, and pretending to be defeated by the summer recess routinely scheduled for late June.  Carney was the man with a plan; the banker, experienced in business; it therefore came as a shock even to Liberal supporters when the government announced that it would present no budget for fiscal 2025-26.  The public shock was so great, that a fiscal update was then floated to be presented in September.  A budget may yet be produced in September. The Carney government, and its immediate predecessor, has had the Department of Finance at its permanent disposal; it has last year’s budget as a recent example; it has last fall’s fiscal update; and it has Carney’s own seemingly omnipotent “experience” available to it, and yet something as basic as a budget is beyond its powers? This is deception; the Carney government doesn’t want the full scale of the fiscal crisis before the country, with a deficit exploded beyond $100 billion, known to the public; at least not yet.  Pierre Poilievre said he would work the parliament through the summer, if elected, to get Canada’s affairs put in order quickly, so pretending to be helpless before a rule of parliament is deceptive.

Carney still enjoys the honeymoon period of his Prime Ministership, and might win a majority if an election were forced on the country right now.  The good atmospherics he generated at the recent First Ministers’ Conference adds to his popularity, or at least to the illusion that something good is being done, and that he is competent.  His Trudeauesque performances in Question Period demonstrate that deception and contempt for its opponents remains the dominant attitude of the Liberal government: the new man isn’t being honest in the House, and nothing has changed despite the change of leader.

It will take a few months for people to see through the deception and fakery of Mark Carney as Prime Minister. His habit of employing deception as the smoother path than to face up to difficulties in a manful way, leads to a breakdown in trust, to bad government; and Canada has already had enough of that.

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Haudenosauee Still Bullying Hamilton

Vincent J. Curtis

12 May 25

The City of Hamilton is once again menaced with trouble by the self-styled “hereditary chiefs of the Haudenosauee,” or Iroquois indians.  This aboriginal aristocracy insists on being consulted, and having an approval, on engineering projects concerning the Red Hill valley, and other places as their whimsy chooses, projects that are far above their capabilities to judge.

The consciences of city councillors are soothed somewhat, if not entirely placated, at this humiliation by the thought that they are bound by the so-called Nanfan Treaty.  It’s a pity no one in the legal department has read it, for otherwise the hereditary chiefs would be escorted from the building; and the city would have to deal with the trouble the chiefs imply they could cause.

The Nanfan Treaty is a straight-up quit claim, “quit claimed onto the King of England forever all the right, title, and interest and all claims and demands whatsoever.”

John Nanfan was the Acting Governor of the-then English province of New York; he had no royal commission to be Governor; and, more importantly, he had no Letters Patent from King Willian III to act as his plenipotentiary to negotiate a treaty with anyone on behalf of the English Crown.  Nevertheless, on 19 July, 1701, representatives of the Iroquois confederacy walked into his office with an offer to surrender lands - which they did not actually possess.  Specifically, the Iroquois Nations deeded to the English Crown their title to Beaver Hunting grounds that they claimed to have acquired by right of conquest in the 17^th century, and that saw the annihilation of the Huron Nation in 1649.  This territory included the Niagara Peninsula, all of South-Western Ontario (the “Land between the Lakes”), the Bruce Peninsula, and the north shore of Lake Ontario as far east as Oshawa.  This and more were part of New France at the time, and claimed, as well as occupied, by French Algonquinian allies, which included the Mississaugas of the Credit.  Much of this territory was subject to the Dish with One Spoon Wampum treaty!

The Iroquois “voluntarily surrendered, delivered up, and by these presents do for us, our heirs and successors forever, quit claimed onto the King of England forever all the right, title, and interest and all claims and demands whatsoever.”  That’s pretty definitive, and raises the question why would the Iroquois surrender title in exchange, apparently, for nothing (albeit land that wasn’t theirs)?  It was ostensibly offered as a gift to the King William III of England, his heir and successors, out of an admiration for him.

The answer seems to be that this was a way for the Iroquois to engage English help to protect hunting and fishing territory, which, up until then the Iroquois had to defend on their own; and, in particular, to drive the Mississaugas out of the Dish With One Spoon territory. For the English, the beaver trade would then flow though English hands instead of through French hands.  But the English did not help, and the Nanfan Treaty fell from the notice of history, until it’s recent revival.

The wording quoted above clearly denies the hereditary chiefs any right to interfere, make claims, or demands, concerning the surrendered territory - that includes modern-day Hamilton. If anyone had a claim, it would be the Mississaugas, but they sold this land to the Crown in 1792.

Naked force is an ugly thing; and submitting to a bullying and humiliating consultative processes is judged a pang the city can endure rather than have to deal with expensive delays and politically difficult confrontations. Nevertheless, there’s no treaty basis for some self-chosen group of indian aristocrats to have a veto over city engineering projects in the Red Hill Valley, or anywhere else.

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Net Zero nuttery

Vincent J. Curtis

1 May 25

Net Zero nuttery is rooted in the belief that carbon dioxide causes bad weather, and that Canada can stop the world from sliding into a climate catastrophe seventy-five years hence. It also means that the year of the tipping point, when the slide into ruin becomes irreversible, is 2030.  Mark Carney has to move fast.

But reaching Net Zero in Canada the task of Sisyphus.  Canada’s forest fires of 2023 produced four times the amount of carbon dioxide that the Canadian humans produced that year; every attempt to capture anthropogenic CO2 by planting forests is but the creation of a time-bomb that inevitably will explode.  A couple years of drought in a mature forest produces plenty of kindling; the fire that destroyed Jasper, AB, was stoked by dried pine trees that had been killed years earlier by the pine beetle.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has pulled America from the Paris Climate Accord, and plans to re-introduce the production and use of “beautiful, clean coal.”  China, he observed at his recent rally in Michigan, opens a new coal-fired power plant every week; and India is not far behind. Both countries make steel by the use of coked coal, still the only practical way of reducing iron oxide into metallic iron.  Mr. Trump also plans to open the north slope of Alaska to oil and gas production under his program of “Drill, baby, drill.”  The curtailment of Alberta’s oil and gas production won’t compensate for these new sources of emissions which Mr. Carney believes will destroy the world.

The cities of Toronto, Mississauga, and Vancouver elected Mr. Carney and his party because they thought he was the man to deal with Mr. Trump, and prevent Canada from becoming the 51^st state of the American Union.  Apparently, these cities haven’t suffered enough crime, homelessness, and degradation of civilization enough to vote Conservative – yet.

Canadians will soon find that Mr. Carney is a lot less than his resume suggests.

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