Just stop oil!

Vincent J. Curtis

10 June 23 

The Just Stop Oil movement is one of several environmentalist movements that believe they can stop climate disaster if somehow the use and consumption of fossil fuels were eliminated.  But is this even possible?  I say it’s impossible to end the use of fossil fuels, because oil is essential even in an ideal world.

Let’s say that only electric vehicles were permitted, and wind turbines and solar panels became the primary sources of electric power.  Those wind turbines will still need lubricating oil in their gearboxes.  Electrical transformers will still need oil as the dielectric.  The wheel bearings on those electric vehicles will still need lubricating grease.  The gear sets will still need lubricating oil.  The transmissions will still need lubricating oil.  The machining of gear sets is typically done with the aid of cutting oils.  Any kind of machinery with gears, in fact, will need oil for lubrication.  Hydraulic systems require hydraulic oil.

So, oil cannot be eliminated, and we’ll still need it in our ideal world.  Where does oil come from?  It comes from the refining of crude oil.  The oil fraction is what is left of crude oil after the solvents, gasoline and diesel fractions, tar, and asphalt have been removed.  It depends on the crude oil, but typically, the oil fraction of crude oil comprises much less than half of the total volume of the crude.  And oil thus separated needs to be purified.  Purification is typically done by hydrotreating.  Where does the hydrogen come from to hydrotreat oil?

The hydrogen for hydroteating comes from the catalytic cracking of the gasoline fraction.  “Cat-cracking” gasoline raises the octane rating of the gasoline, and that process releases hydrogen, which is fed to the lube plant for hydrotreatment of oil.  Hence, to get the oil we know we’ll still need in our ideal world, we’ll still produce vast quantities of high octane gasoline and diesel fuel.  What is supposed to be done with those vast amounts of gasoline and diesel that are the by-product of the production of quality lubricating oil that we know we’ll still need?  The quantities of gasoline and diesel will be so vast that they cannot simply be stored or dumped somewhere, like mine tailings.

The only sensible thing that can be done with them is to burn them.  They can be burnt to produce electric power, or they can be burnt in internal combustion engines to produce propulsion.  There’s no getting away from it.

The economics of forcing the use of EVs and of trying to eliminate the sale of internal combustion engines will be to depress the price of gasoline and diesel and to raise the price of lubricating oil, as the oil companies try to make a profit from their refining operations.  The oil companies would be inclined practically to give away gas and diesel just to make lube oil.  Hence, the cost of operating gas and diesel powered cars, trucks, and other equipment will drop, making them more economically competitive against battery powered vehicles, which now and in the future will require subsidies for people to afford them.

Government can try to intervene further, after banning internal combustion engines, by placing punitive taxes on gas and diesel; but the absurdity of forcing the use of EVs will lead to a crisis in the economy, transportation being so important.  This conundrum cannot be avoided, or resolved.

Hence, gas and diesel powered vehicles cannot be sensibly eliminated from use, on account simply of our continuing need for lubricating oil.  Our ideal world contains an economic contradiction that cannot be avoided.  As Thomas Sowell is wont to say, “There are no solutions, only trade-offs.”

By taxation and subsidies, EVs can become a part of the passenger vehicle mix, but they cannot be the entirety or even the principle modes of private transport in any sensible way.

The modern world simply cannot “just stop oil.”  It is an impractical ideal.  Our need for lubricating oil makes it impossible.

What has Just Stop Oil got to say about this?  Well, nothing at all.  I doubt they have thought this far ahead.  But it is typical of the environmental movement to ignore the question of “at what cost” and to offer no solutions to the obvious consequences of their demands being met.  It should be expected of Just Stop Oil and other such movements movement (and even of governments) to offer a solution to the problem we can see coming.

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