Wednesday, July 28, 2021

Climate Change and British Columbia wildfires

Vincent J. Curtis

28 July 21

Much has been made over the B.C. wildfires and the heat wave that allegedly caused them.  These have been held forth as evidence of climate change.  However, analysis of the actual data proves otherwise.

The official B.C. government statistics can be found at the link below:

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/wildfire-status/about-bcws/wildfire-statistics/wildfire-averages

The annual burn acreage in B.C. can vary by as much as two orders of magnitude.  The ten year average burn acreage between 2010 and 2020 is 348,917 hectares.  The lowest year was 2011 with 12,609 hectares burned, closely followed by 2020 with 14, 536 hectares.  The largest year was 2018 with 1,354,284 hectares burned, closely followed by 2017 with 1.216,053.  The trend from 218 to 2020 is sharply downward.  Statistically, a sharp rise should be expected in 2021.  (This is phenomenon of statistics known as 'reversion to mean.') There are no evident trends that indicate a correlation between world CO2 levels and burn acreage in B.C.

But that doesn’t stop the charlatans that hope to capitalize in some way upon people’s gullibility.  People have been told so often that climate change is responsible for this or that unusual event, that when a big hype is made over a particular heat wave and the burning of forests that follow afterwards, they believe it.  They are given no context by the charlatans that would make the deception obvious.

Follow the money.  The people hyping climate change and who cite B.C. forest fires as sure signs of it get a benefit somehow.  Even if it is only confirmation of their moral and intellectual superiority.

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