Tuesday, July 21, 2020

The irrational aim: slow the spread, prolong the crisis


Vincent J. Curtis

21 July 20

The first principle of war is the selection and maintenance of the aim.  Maintenance of the aim is as important as the selection.  In the pandemic war, the aim keeps changing.

At first, the aim was to “flatten the curve,” then it became eradicate the virus, and now it’s to slow the spread.  These different aims have each been used to justify the same lockdown.  The first aim was achieved within the first two weeks of the lockdown, and then things went awry as more cooks fiddled with the recipe.  The second aim, eradication, proved impossible, and so we’ve slipped into the irrational third, slowing the spread and prolonging the crisis.

Why slow the spread?  It’s a pandemic that isn’t going away.  Many people are going to get infected.  But, over ninety percent of the people who get infected are asymptomatic, meaning they didn’t even know they had it.  Young, healthy adults and children particularly can handle the virus easily.  Slowing the spread only delays the onset of herd immunity.  Meanwhile, the lockdown ravages the economy and adds to the life-years lost due to the adverse health effects of the lockdown itself.  We know to protect the elderly and those with underlying conditions.

If you’re hoping for a vaccine, what do you think mass vaccination does?  It creates herd immunity!

Slowing the spread is an irrational aim.  It prolongs the crisis.  We need to get through it quickly, not slowly.
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