Vincent J. Curtis
9 Jan 2018
Canada’s choice for interim fighter aircraft to replace our
aging CF-18’s has been announced. The
aircraft to replace our aging CF-18’s in the interim - are Australia’s aging
F-18’s. That’s right, the aircraft our
pilots are going fly - perhaps into 2035 – are coming from Crown Assets
Disposal – Australia Division.
The reason why Australia is surplussing its early 1980’s
vintage F-18’s is that they are replacing them right now with brand new F-35’s
from Lockheed-Martin. You know, the
aircraft the Trudeau team won’t touch because it got the cooties from Team
Harper? The Australians, apparently,
weren’t bothered by that.
The RCAF aren’t getting Super Hornets as interim
replacements because Boeing has the temerity to take on domestic favorite,
Bombardier.
Conspicuous by its absence has been noises favorable to the
decision from the RCAF. The photo taken
of the decision’s announcement team doesn’t have a single member of the RCAF at
the table. Let’s apply a little
Kremlinology to the photo and see what we can tease out of it.
The position of right marker is taken by Chief of Defense
Staff General Jonathan Vance, and he is the one doing the talking. Next to him is Minister of National Defense,
LCol (Ret’d) Harjit Sajjan, Vance’s nominal boss, with hands folded. Sajjan isn’t making the announcement perhaps
because the government doesn’t want it to look like they are outright shafting
the RCAF with the decision. With Vance
ramrodding what the decision will be, it doesn’t look so bad.
Next to Sajjan is Carla Qualtrough, Minister of Public
Services and Procurement. She being
where she is is the only logical component of the photograph. Next to Qualtrough sits Navdeep Bains,
Minister of Innovation, Science, and Economic Development. What is he doing there? He is just filling space, because buying used
has nothing to do with innovation, science, or economic development.
Finally, at the end of the table, is Minister of Transport
Marc Garneau. Again, what is he doing
there other than filling space?
Chief of the Air Staff and Commander of the RCAF, LGen
Michael J. Hood was nowhere in sight. Assistant
Deputy Minister (Material) Patrick Finn was nowhere in sight. Neither gentleman was quoted saying something
favorable in any of the stories I’ve read about the decision. Not a peep from anyone having to fly in these
aging Australian crates, the service history of which RCAF maintenance has only
second-hand information.
The political dodging started immediately. When challenged on the decision, MND Sajjan
always turned to saying that the government was actually announcing that the
replacement competition would start – in another three years, 2020! That a replacement competition was to be held
to avoid taking the F-35 was an announcement made during the 2015 election, and
repeated immediately after the election of the Trudeau government. The competition to start in 2020 is to reach
a decision in 2023 with first acquisition starting in 2025, according to
Sajjan.
What is significant about those dates is that no one in the
photograph is going to be around then.
The next federal election is in 2019, which means the Trudeau government
is making pledges potentially on behalf of its successor, and the next election
after 2019 would conceivably be 2023 - the year of the announcement of the
winner of the competition.
Vance will be retired.
Sajjan, if he is around in 2023, won’t be Minister of National Defense;
Garneau will likely have retired. Young
Mr. Bains and Carla Qualtrough might still be in cabinet – assuming the Trudeau
government itself survives into 2023, by no means a given.
Given the state of play in the fighter market, in 2023 the
Super Hornet will be off the market.
Other than the F-16, which will still be around, and the F-35, the only
other source of Gen 4.5 or greater aircraft will be the Saab Gripen from Sweden,
the Dassault Rafale from France, or Eurofighter Typhoon from a European
consortium. I can’t imagine that either
Russia or China would sell us aircraft that would be any good. Not much else to choose from, off the shelf.
These Australian jets don’t come for free. The estimate being kicked around is $500
million to get them air-worthy again.
When challenged on that point, MND Sajjan would dodge, meaning that the amount
is at least that much, and probably more.
Note that the fly-away cost for 18 new-build F-16s from Lockheed-Martin is
in the neighbourhood of $750 million.
For a few dollars more, the RCAF could have had absolutely new and
certifiably air-worthy aircraft capable of carrying the load for twenty years,
and the F-16 is famously low maintenance.
Forty year old F-18’s – not so much.
You have to wonder if the lower initial investment won’t be offset by
higher routine maintenance within five years.
The RCAF got shafted with the decision to take old
Australian F-18s. They’re going to get
shafted again in 2023 if the Trudeau government is still around. The silence from the RCAF brass is
deafening. Can we expect a resignation
or an early retirement from that quarter soon?
-30-
A version of this appeared in Esprit de Corps magazine Vol 25 No. 1.
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