As the World Turns

Vincent J. Curtis

12 Feb 2018

Like the ongoing soap-opera, As the World Turns, the soap opera that is the Canadian Future Fighter acquisition project spins on.  I expect to see how Coronation Street ends before we learn what the new Canadian fighter turns out to be.

Let’s review the role that the new fighter is expected to fill.  The CF-105 Avro Arrow was the ideal aircraft for the primary role of the RCAF: the interception of Soviet Tu-95 (Bear) bombers flying over the Arctic region on their way to drop nuclear weapons on the United States.  The Arrow was smokin’ fast in a straight line, could intercept from extremely high altitudes, and could fly a long way on internal fuel.  A fully-realized Arrow was a notch below the YF-12A (SR-71 Blackbird) in terms of flying performance, but a single one could tear a big hole in a formation of bombers.  Its mission profile would be similar to that of an Me-262 taking on a wing of B-17s over Holland and Germany.

Our role in NORAD is the same today as it was in the 1950s, against the self-same Tu-95 bomber fleet.  We all know the fate of the Arrow, and when sanity returned its role was filled by the CF-101 Voodoo interceptor.  The CF-104 Starfighter could be an untouchable interceptor, for it was screaming fast in a straight line and high flying.  The CF-104 interceptor could be in and out before the hapless victim knew what happened.

Membership in NATO and later in US-led coalitions brought about a second role for the RCAF: that of maintaining air superiority.  This role imposed the requirement for maneuverability upon the aircraft.  In the late 1970’s, the choice of a fighter-interceptor for Canada boiled down to the F-16 and the F/A-18.  The F-16 was designed by the “fighter mafia” of the US Air Force which, after the experience of the air war over North Vietnam and of the 1973 Arab-Israeli conflict, wanted a pure dogfighter in the US. Fighter inventory.  The F-16 was designed to be cheap to build, cheap to maintain and operate, extremely maneuverable, and fast.  Over time, and to the disgust of the fighter mafia, the F-16A evolved into the F-16C, with ground attack capabilities, losing speed and maneuverability in the process.

The competitor to the adoption of the YF-16 was the YF-17.  The YF-17 developed into the F/A-18, which was selected by the U.S. Navy as the replacement for the F-14 Tomcat air superiority fighter on its aircraft carriers.  The ‘A’ designation meant that the aircraft was capable of a ground attack mission as well as fill the air superiority ‘F’ role.  Canada selected the F/A-18 over the F-16A because the two engines of the F/A-18 allegedly gave a margin of safety to the pilot who was flying over the High Arctic.

The F-16 turned into the most successful and most produced jet fighter of all time, with nearly 4,600 made, and production continues.  The F/A-18A was a developmental dead-end, and the Super Hornet, the F/A-18E/F, was developed - with its 25 per cent larger airframe - to continue the Hornet concept as a dual-purpose carrier-borne combat aircraft.  The production line of the Super Hornet is being kept open by Boeing in the hopes of getting foreign sales, and Trump wants 24 more for the US.

The selection of a fighter to replace the Canadian F/A-18 (a.k.a. CF-188 a.k.a Hornet) is something of a charade.  There are only half a dozen aircraft to choose from, and if one names an aircraft one won’t buy (the F-35) and won’t do business with the manufacturer of another (Boeing), then one is left with a choice from among one North American made aircraft (F-16) and three European ones.  If the RCAF fighter experts don’t already have strong opinions about which one they prefer, then you have to wonder what they do all day.

The danger is that the Liberal government, suffering from a high sense of self-importance, will turn a three year charade into a farce.  They’ll end up choosing from among boutique aircraft whose principal user’s needs do not align with Canada’s.

For grand strategic reasons, Canada needs to buy from a North American manufacturer, plain and simple.  We need to – and only need to – stay current with the Americans.  That means we’re down to Boeing and Lockheed-Martin.

Boeing is doing very well for itself.  On the day that the U.S Trade Commission dismissed its complaint against Bombardier – thus eliminating the objection of the Trudeau government to the Super Hornet interim purchase – Boeing announced the sale of 14 more 747-8F cargo jets and four 767’s to UPS.  It’s going to buy Embraer, and maybe Woodward.  It announced $900 million in sales at the Singapore air show.  Boeing simply doesn’t need Canada’s paltry fighter jet business, and being smeared with the accusation that it is “responsible for harm to Canada’s economic interests” disinterested Boeing in competing for the fighter contract, and perhaps for more besides.

The three year “competition” to choose Canada’s next fighter jet(s) is a charade.  If the selection does not come from either Boeing or Lockheed-Martin then the whole thing was a farce.  And there is no good reason to choose just one type with 88 on order.  A mix of types: ground attack with a genuine fighter-interceptor, would meet Canada’s future needs better than a jack-of-all-trades.

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