Friday, April 24, 2015

Michael Mann and Tree Ring Data

Vincent J. Curtis

23 Apr 15

My hometown newspaper ran a story headlined, "Hamilton is going to get warmer and wetter, climate meeting hears."  For 'Earth Day' local environmentalists held a prayer meeting as a means of demonstrating and reviving their faith.  The local preacher, Brian Montgomery, delivered the sermon.  He spoke of the flooding of the Red Hill Valley Parkway, the ice storm of a couple years ago, and flooding in the nearby city of Burlington. and blamed it all on global warming, or 'climate change' as the saying now goes.  He assured the assembled that the apocalypse is indeed coming, and a sign of it will be Hamilton becoming a warmer and wetter place.  Parson Montgomery's authority to preach in the Church of the Environment rests on his being the Air and Climate Change Coordinator for the City of Hamilton, according to the story.

I have written on global warming since it was actually called global warming by the faithful, i.e. over eighteen years.  Below is my response and commentary.

After the last two winters Hamilton has endured, only a shameless, apocalyptic wacko could possibly warn that Hamilton is going to get warmer and wetter and that these are bad things.

The fact is that the global temperature has not risen in the last eighteen years.  To hold that global warming is occurring as a result of anthropogenic carbon dioxide is to make a mockery of the principle of cause and effect.  If the effect is not happening, then the cause is not operating.

At Hamilton’s third Annual Environmental Summit, the meeting was told that the flooding of the Red Hill Valley Parkway was a sign of global warming.  I recall at the time that a similar set of apocalyptic environmentalists blamed poor planning and poor design of the road for the flooding that occurred.  I guess those engineers who were responsible are owed an apology, but they shouldn’t hold their breath waiting for one.

Once again, the environmentalists wackos confound weather with climate when it suits their purposes.  Blaming severe occasional weather events on global warming is the usual sleight of hand they employ.

As a research scientist for 35 years, I know the difference between a tree ring and a mercury thermometer.  In my experience, a thermometer is far better for measuring temperature than a tree ring is.  A tree ring is inconsistent in shape and thickness, and, most importantly, the edges are not sharp.  On a thermometer, the gradations marking temperature are sharp and crisp, and with a wide range thermometer I can measure a temperature to within half a degree.

The global warming wackos claim that with tree rings someone can measure “temperature” to within one tenth of a degree!  I simply don’t believe them.  Everything that Michael Mann claimed in his 'hockey stick' graph turned on measurements of tenths of a degree, something I deny they can reliably measure.  Mann's hockey stick notably failed to observe the Medieval warm period, during which the Vikings occupied Greenland, and the Little Ice Age, which ran from about 1650 to 1850.

Other reasons for not believing the global warming hypothesis is the immediate political and economic consequences the hypothesis conveniently pointed to.  If you ever hated something about the success of western civilization, its industry and its wealth, global warming provided the reason to bring western civilization down a few pegs of success.  A real scientific investigation would have observed that the climate models were interesting, but required more work and refinement before any large practical conclusions should be drawn from them.  But that is not what was done.

The scandals that have gone on concerning global warming: the shunning and browbeating of skeptics, the loss of raw data by the principals, the emails that show conspiracy to cover up doubt, all point to a very unscientific handling of what is supposed to be a scientific question.  What we get is political cudgeling.

What has happened over the last eighteen years is a lot of political, emotional, and financial investment into a cause that isn’t panning out, all because the scientists who proposed global warming on the basis of tree ring data drew hasty conclusions, failed to be scientifically prudent, and advanced something that rested on doubtful and inconsistent evidence.  They saw something not for what it was, but for what they wished it to be.  And now Michael Mann is suing everybody in sight in order to salvage his reputation.

People who still talk about the dangers of global warming are not scientists; they are politicians with an agenda.
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The above link demonstrates the chicanery which has taken place in order to delude the general public into fearing the global warming phenomenon.

http://thefederalist.com/2015/04/24/seven-big-failed-environmentalist-predictions

This link (which will have to be cut & pasted into your browser) lists seven other failed apocalyptic forecasts of environmentalist wackos since 1970.

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