The glory of the hockey-stick

Vincent J. Curtis

23 Nov 23

RE: World racing well past warming limits as carbon emissions rise. AP story by Seth Borenstein, The Hamilton Spectator 21 Nov 23

The glory of hockey-stick climate “science” is that its phenomena aren’t bound by the laws of physics and chemistry. For example, in ordinary physics, moving past a “tipping point” results in an irreversible forward movement in that direction, often with accelerating speed.  Not so in climate “science.” The hockey stickers believe that, with enough earnest effect, one can reverse the irreversible sudden forward acceleration.

As reported by AP’s science writer, the lacklustre Seth Borenstein, “the 1.5-degree goal is based on a time period measured over many years, not days, ‘scientists said.’” So, the tipping point isn’t really a tipping point; it’s just a permanent increase in global temperature, confirmed after many years. And so, that the world passed 1.5 degrees for 86 or 127 days this year, doesn’t matter; it’s only a foretaste of what’s to come!

As for the earnest effort, “To have an even money shot at keeping warming to the 1.5C limit, … countries have to slash their emissions 42 percent by the end of the decade.” Since this is science, why is this claim merely an “even money shot?”

Actual atmospheric physicists have computed that doubling CO2 from 400 to 800 ppm will result in an increase in global temperature of 0.72C. That’s it. Raising the question, what the hell are the hockey-stickers actually measuring to say 1.5 or 2.0?

The big mystery is the claim of 1.5 “above.” Above what?  Above “pre-industrial levels.” Well, what’s that number; they must have one to say that we’re 1.5 above it?  They won’t say, because once they do, the game is up.  First question, how do you know, given there were only ten stations measuring temperature in the whole world in 1850, and most of them were in the US? And if you say it’s 12.8C, then 14.8C doesn’t seem all that dangerous.

The game of the hockey-stickers is to keep the donkey moving forward by holding a carrot in front of it, while beating it mercilessly with threats and imprecations.

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