Of Buoys and Balloons

Vincent J. Curtis

14 Mar 23

In January and early February of this year, a Chinese balloon floated leisurely across North America.  It entered NORAD airspace over the Aleutian Islands, crossed Alaska, drifted down British Columbia, entered the continental United States over Montana, sailed across the entire United States before being shot down by a pair of F-22 Raptors over the Atlantic ocean off the coast of South Carolina.

Neither the government of the United States nor of Canada admitted the existence of this balloon until it was sighted and reported by civilians.  The balloon was so large that it was visible to the naked eye at an altitude of 65,000 ft.  When news of this object hit the media, Americans clamoured for President Biden to shoot it down, which he refrained from doing until its mission over North America was completed.

Then, in quick succession, three other balloons were spotted and shot down; the last one over Lake Huron.  Prime Minster Trudeau ordered that it be shot down, and, at an altitude of 40,000 ft, a U.S F-16 complied with his imperious command.

It turns out that these last three balloons may have been privately owned.  The one shot down over Lake Huron may have been the property of an amateur radio club, and was carrying a “pico transmitter”.  This activity is FAA approved.  At an altitude of 40,000 ft the transmission of location, altitude and perhaps temperature data from the transmitter could be tracked by Hams as far as 100 miles away.

It also became known that Canada had recovered a number of buoys that were dropped by a Chinese icebreaker attempting the North West passage.  No details were released on what the buoys could do, but it is reasonable to include the detection and monitoring of submarine activity in the Arctic ocean is among the possibilities, and perhaps also a geological survey of the ocean bottom for the minerals it contains.

The balloon over Lake Huron required two, count ‘em two, $400,000 Sidewinder missiles to bring down, while the enormous Chinese balloon only required only one.  The wonder is that they were shot down at all.  A U.S. F-16 fighter normally carries an infra-red guided AIM-9 Sidewinder missile, and a balloon floating for more than a few hours at high altitude is as cold as the thin air around it.  There’s no heat for the missile to home in on.  The Sidewinders shot from the F-16 were essentially unguided, and it’s a wonder to me that the pilot chose missiles over his guns.  Both the F-16 and F-22 are equipped with M-61 Vulcan rotary cannons, and a few dozen 20 mm holes in the balloon would bring it down to earth.  A few dozen cannon rounds are a lot cheaper than a Sidewinder.

The F-22 was successful on its first shot, partly out of luck and partly because it could get close enough.  An F-22 can reach 65,000 ft. and the Chinese balloon made a big target.  A pico balloon carrying a tiny radio, is much smaller.  Still, why not use guns?

An issue for the RCAF is that it doesn’t have, and won’t have, a fighter that can shoot down a balloon at 65,000 ft.  The service ceiling of a CF-18 and of an F-35 is 50,000 ft.  Sophisticated, infra-red guided missiles are useless against a target that is as cold as the background, and even 20 mm won’t reach a balloon flying three miles above the platform.  An AIM-120 AMRAAM radar guided missile, costing $2,000,000, seems like overkill for a mere balloon.

Like the F-22 Raptor, the F-15 Eagle has a service ceiling of 65,000 ft, and so one of these can level up at 65,000 ft, get close, and take the shot with guns.

Quartermasters adore uniformity, but perhaps this episode might induce the RCAF to ask for a squadron of aircraft with peacetime, strategic capability, like an F-15 variant.

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