Sun Tzu on Putin

Vincent J. Curtis

2 Mar 22

The famous Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu advised against devastating a province in the course of conquering it.  Sun Tzu said it was like an Emperor ruining a jewel he hoped to feature in his crown.  Yet Putin’s strategy in Ukraine seems intent on devastating the country as the means of conquering it.

The Russians are not attempting to assault the major Ukrainian cities of Kiev and Kharkov, and are instead attempting to reduce them slowly with long distance rocket, missile, and artillery fire.  Because of the intense resistance of the Ukrainian people, an attempt to conquer a major city street by street would devour the Russian army.  Hence, Russia’s strategy is to induce surrender by terror attacks and strangulation.

But Russia lacks the money to rebuild a major city.  What is Russia going to do with 20 million refugees, send them to the west?  Two of the purposes of taking Ukraine was to add her population and economy to those of Russia. But if the Ukrainian economy is ruined, half her population displaced, her agriculture in disarray, what does Putin gain except lots more empty space, the heavy cost of supporting a ruined country, and the heavier costs imposed on Russia by the enmity of the rest of the world?

That Putin threatened nuclear retaliation against NATO countries shows how desperate he’s getting.  His dream of a speedy conquest is gone, and the cost of victory is looking exorbitant.  Negotiating a peace that looks a lot like status quo ante bellum would be a huge embarrassment back home.  Losing the war would ruin his place as a strong czar in the mould of Peter the Great in Russian history.

If Ukrainian resistance continues strong, we can expect increasing desperation from Putin.

Putin is failing two of the great rules of Sun Tzu: “Know thine enemy,” and “Know thyself.”  You can be certain that the Chinese – very serious students of Sun Tzu - are watching this war closely.

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