Vincent J. Curtis
6 Sept 2017
Kim Jong-Un is a psychopath – with enemies.
If there is a classic case of a
Clausewitzian center of gravity, the person of Kim Jong-Un is it. The
North Korean state exists for the purpose of worshipping the Kim dynasty.
There are strong religious overtones in the reverence of his two dead predecessors,
to whom are ascribed miraculous powers in death; and Kim plays to the
inherent miraculous powers and legitimacy of his dynasty. If Kim died
tomorrow, -without a successor – North Korea would collapse almost
immediately. Thus the people at the top have justification for keeping
him around because it secures their position.
But Kim also has a responsibility to
make sure those at the top get their back scratched. That is why Kim
needs money from abroad, and some foreign trade. (You can only get Cuban
cigars from Cuba, and good single malt scotch from Scotland.) For living
on top of a volcano with Kim, there has to be something in it for you
too. Hence, Kim to some extent purchases the loyalty of those at the top
of the North Korean military by prestige and creature comforts.
Kim learned from his father that the
U.S. can be rolled. Starvation among the peasants can be combined with
grotesque military threats to get money and supplies that ease the
pressure. This technique was used on Clinton, Bush, and Obama. But
it isn’t working with Trump, who is calling his bluff. Kim is responding
with greater stridency of what worked before, because, he thinks, he may not
have been demonstrative enough. He doesn’t understand why Trump isn’t
folding.
I don’t think Kim wants unification
with South Korea on peaceable terms because it would destroy his regime.
The wealth and attitudes of modern day South Korea would destroy his
regime. He would destroy South Korea and occupy the ruins, but not peaceably
reunify.
Trump is going for regime
change. The cleanest way is a military coup, and asking to see Kim in a
place like Beijing is clearing the way for a bloodless coup. Causing Kim
to lose face might spark it, as forcing Kim not to attack Guam could have been
spun as his losing face. Squeezing off trade could spark the coup as Kim
could no longer scratch the backs of those whose loyalty he requires.
Another technique is have the Chinese
invade, and negotiate a reunification of Korea with an American withdrawal.
Korea would be prosperous and democratic, which China many not want. But
who knows, maybe the Chinese will go for that as the lesser of two evils.
(The other evil being a catastrophic collapse of North Korea and a refugee
problem on their border.)
Then, there is the military
option. One moonless night, an Ohio-class Trident nuclear submarine
surfaces in the middle of the Sea of Japan, and launches three or four nuclear
missiles that in less than ten minutes crash into Pyongyang, the missile construction
facility, the nuclear facility, and where Kim happens to be sleeping at that
moment. The submarine quietly submerges and moves on. With the
regime decapitated and its unconventional power destroyed, the Nork military
leadership has to decide whether to make war and be destroyed, or ask for
terms.
Kim is rational, but he is a crazed
psychopath. He knows how to survive, but all of it involves keeping the
status quo. He needs something soon, but that something is to preserve the
status quo in North Korea. I don’t think he grasps the power of the
United States. If he does launch a missile that hits anything, or even is
generally in the direction of Guam, then it’s game over for him.
If China squeezes him as they
promised in the UN Security Council resolution on sanctions, it’s game over for
Kim, and North Korea. If he makes war on the US, its game over. If
he does nothing, it may take time, but it will be game over for him due to the
internal pressures of keeping his regime. His only way out is to get a
deal from the US for money and supplies, or to export his technology to Iran
and others.
Kim is the
center of gravity of North Korea. If he goes, the whole country
collapses. That is why China is invested in his preservation.
-30-
No comments:
Post a Comment