Vincent J. Curtis
11 July 23
Ukraine in NATO? What a dumb idea!
The latest, greatest, and dumbest idea for
NATO expansion is to admit Ukraine into the alliance. Never mind that Article 5 of the NATO pact -
that an attack on one is an attack on all - would place the NATO powers,
including Canada, at war with Russia.
What could go wrong?
Look at Ukraine’s pre-2014 frontiers. The Russian city just across the eastern
border is Rostov-on-Don, where the Don River empties into the Sea of Azov. In 1941, Field Marshal Gerd von Rundstedt
drove Army Group South in Operation Barbarossa over 800 miles through modern
Ukraine; and in mid-November, 1941, captured Rostov-on-Don. Rundstedt assessed that his army lacked the strength
to hold the city against Russian counterattacks, and ordered his army to withdraw
to an excellent defensive position on the west bank of the Mius River, about 45
miles to the west, in Ukraine.
Hitler went nuts over Rundstedt’s
withdrawal, sacked him, and replaced him with Walter von Reichenau who, agreeing
with Rundstedt, persuaded Hitler to complete the withdrawal. The next year, 1942, the main German
offensive began from Army Group South’s winter position, and German armies advanced
eastward to Stalingrad and southward into the Caucasus, the capture of the oilfields
of which was the aim of the offensive.
Ukraine in NATO would enable the placement
of German, American, and other forces at the starting position of Germany’s
1942 offensive.
Napoleon began his advance on Moscow in
1812 when he crossed the Niemen River, which runs near the modern
Polish-Belarusian border. Napoleon
advanced 600 miles, roughly, to occupy Moscow.
Army Group Center, in 1941, advanced 750 miles from occupied Poland, and
reached the outskirts of Moscow in one campaign. It’s about 400 miles from Kharkov to Moscow.
Lenin sighed at the losses of territory in
Belarus, Ukraine, and the Baltic States in the short-lived Treat of
Brest-Litovsk.
Ukraine in NATO would give German, French,
and American armies jumping off points that Russia has only seen deep in a
war. That Russia is unconquerable on
account of space suddenly may not be true when the space between the enemy’s
starting points and Russia’s vital political and economic centers are
dramatically shortened.
It may be hard for us to understand, but
Russian political leadership is suspicious of America’s good intentions; and
having a senile, grinning sock-puppet as president does not inspire Russian confidence
in American motives, or actions. Imagine
Russian President Vladimir Putin as a Russian patriot, and he’s confronted with
the prospect of what, for hundreds of years, was Russian territory absconding
to the empire of Western Europe.
In Barack Obama, Putin detected weakness,
and immediately after the 2014 Sochi Olympics, he seized the Crimea, with its
vital port and fortress of Sevastopol, from Ukraine. America accommodated itself. The prospect of Ukraine joining the EU or
NATO began to percolate, until Donald Trump became president.
Trump offered American friendship to Putin,
and raised Putin’s personal prestige.
Howling at the uselessness of NATO, Trump forced NATO countries to spend
$100 billion more on defense. Trump
howled about the corruption of Ukraine - how it interfered against him in the
2016 election, and how Ukrainian interests paid off the Biden family. But, Trump also gave Ukraine lethal aid in
the form of Javelin missiles, which Obama never did. Trump showed a dexterity in foreign policy not
seen since the days of Nixon and Kissinger, embarrassing and offending the
Washington foreign policy establishment.
Nothing happened while Trump was president. Putin saw strength, was outmaneuvered, but
Trump kept Ukraine out of NATO.
In Joe Biden, the weakness is palpable. Facing the real prospect of Ukraine entering
the embrace of the EU and NATO, Putin struck.
The Russian military let him down, and he was unable to install a puppet
regime in Kiev; but he does possess a land bridge from Rostov to the Crimea, as
well as the mineral rich Donbas region.
A status quo armistice would suit his
purposes for now.
-30-