Vincent J. Curtis
6 Apr 2017
When NATO foreign ministers gather around the conference
table to grouse about their problem with 2 percent, they aren’t talking about
American beer. They are talking about the
sober promises their countries made to each other several years ago. At the NATO meeting in Brussels on March 31,
the new U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told members that he wanted to
see each country’s plan to raise their defence expenditures to 2 percent of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the next meeting, scheduled for the end of
April.
Presently, only five NATO countries are fulfilling that
commitment: the US, UK, Greece, Poland, and Latvia. Canadian defense expenditure presently hovers
around 1 percent of GDP.
All this is taking place in an atmosphere of confusion and
consternation at the new Trump administration.
During the election campaign, Donald Trump criticized the usefulness of a
NATO that paid no attention to the problem of international terrorism and
terrorist states, while at the same time he appeared to cozy up to Russian
President Vladimir Putin. Trump’s
appearing to cozy up to Putin gave legs to the story that Trump was in Putin’s
pocket somehow. Even now, the Democrats
in Washington are pushing the line that the Trump campaign colluded with the
Russian regime to steal the presidency from Hillary Clinton.
Because most of the media are suffering from Trump
Derangement Syndrome, they are missing the fact that is Donald Trump is working
the Russian problem from both ends.
Trump is giving Vladimir Putin every reason to relax
tensions between Russia and the NATO countries that became acute after Russia
annexed the Crimea, and then sent proxies into eastern Ukraine to end the
sovereignty Kiev de facto and de jure exercised over that region. Russian control over eastern Ukraine gives
Russia a land bridge to Crimea, with its famous port and the home of the
Russian Black Sea fleet, Sevastopol.
Czarist Russia seized the Crimea from the Ottoman Empire in
the 1783 and held it after the Crimean War of 1854-56. In 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred
ownership of Crimea to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. Ukraine kept it after it declared
independence from the Soviet Union.
Near the end of Obama administration, Russia began to exert
pressure on NATO members Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, the so-called Baltic
states. These are geographically small
countries with small populations; they lie on the extremity of the NATO region
but are adjacent to Russia. These
countries were once part of the Czarist Russian Empire, and were incorporated
into the Soviet Union after 1945. These
countries gained their independence from Russia after the communist revolution
of 1917, and again after the collapse of the Soviet Empire in 1989.
At the same time that Trump is giving Putin the chance to
relax tensions without embarrassment to either side, he is demanding of NATO
countries to step up their defense expenditures to the levels that they
promised when east-west tensions were not as great. Thus if Putin finally concludes that he is
wasting his time with Trump, he will be confronted by a stronger NATO. Not just a NATO strong in virtue of the
military power of the United States, but of every other NATO member as well.
Not only will the Baltic States themselves be harder nuts to
crack, but Germany, an old Russian antagonist, will be better positioned to
step in and hold the line without requiring the full commitment of the United
States military, which may take a few weeks before it gets fully deployed in
Europe. If Germany stands as a guarantor
of NATO security in the short run, a Russian intervention into the Baltic
States may be solvable by diplomacy before the situation escalates out of
control.
If the United States pulls out of NATO, these European
countries are going to have to dramatically increase the defense expenditures
anyhow, in order to deal with the Russian threat on their own. So, spending more on defense in in the cards.
Luckily for Canadian diplomacy, it has the resources of Esprit de Corps magazine behind it. In the February issue, the Canadian plan for
meeting the 2 percent threshold was laid out.
The plan calls for capital expenditures over four years that will require
ten years to fully implement, but meets the criterion of 2 percent for the
duration of the first Trump term.
Essentially, the plan calls for the recapitalization of the Canadian
Armed Forces with the equipment it is going to need anyhow for the next twenty
to forty years. Not one thin dime needs
to be spent from the operating budget of DND to pay for one new soldier,
sailor, or airman over four years.
If the Canadian government follows the Esprit de Corps defense plan, it will not only find itself in the
good graces of the Trump administration, but leave a legacy of military
preparedness.
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A version of this piece appeared in the Vol 24, Issue 4 edition of Esprit de Corps magazine.